Yankees vs. Mets Pick
Oddsmakers at sports book BetDSI have made the Yankees a -191 favorite in this matchup, while the Mets are +171 underdogs. The over-under is set at 7.
Luis Severino (9-5, 3.32 ERA) will start for the Yankees, while the Mets turn to Steven Matz (2-6, 5.54 ERA). Severino had been on a roll, giving up no more than one earned run in five straight starts before being shelled for 10 runs (eight earned) in 4 1/3 innings during a 10-5 home loss to Boston on August 12. He carries a 1.11 WHIP into this game. Matz has struggled with consistency since returning from injury and the Mets are 3-9 in his 12 starts. He is coming off an encouraging performance at Philadelphia, where he gave up two earned runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a 3-1 loss.
The Yankees won two games in the Bronx to begin the home-and-home four-game series, then proceeded to defeat the Mets 5-3 at Citi Field Wednesday night. The Yankees are 64-55 overall and 29-33 on the road, while the Mets are 53-65 and 26-33 at home.
Wednesday's game saw a Didi Gregorius two-run double in the top of the seventh inning snap a 3-3 tie. Aaron Judge also hit a 450-foot home run. Chase Headley was 2-for-2 with a double, a walk, a run scored and an RBI. Ronald Torreyes was 2-for-4 with a double and a run. The Mets were led offensively by Juan Lagares, who was 2-for-4 with a double and a run. Rene Rivera added a solo home run. Paul Sewald took the loss in relief for the Mets, giving up the double to Gregorius. Three Yankees relievers combined for 3 2/3 innings of one-hit baseball, with Tommy Kahnle earning the win and David Robertson picking up his 14th save.
Severino was great until his last start and you have to assume he will bounce back strong against a lineup that isn't all that difficult to navigate through. Matz has been poor and even his last start can be taken with a grain of salt since it was against the Phillies. Don't overthink this game, aside from perhaps considering the Yankees' -1.5 runline at -110.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: NEW YORK YANKEES -191