MLB All-Star Home Run Derby Prediction

2018 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby 7/16/2018 Prediction & Odds

The 2018 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby takes place Monday night from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. Bryce Harper is favored to win the tournament but is there a better value?

Game Snapshot & Odds

2018 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby

Monday, July 16, 2018

8:00 p.m. ET, Nationals Park

TV: ESPN

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Betting Odds

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list Harper as a 9/5 favorite to win the 2018 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby on Monday night. The Brewers' Jesus Aguilar has the next-best odds at 4/1, followed by Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman at 11/2.

Kyle Schwarber of the Cubs, meanwhile, is also 11/2 to win this year's Home Run Derby while teammate Javy Baez and Max Muncy of the Dodgers are both 6/1, respectively. Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies is 7/1 and Astros' rising star Alex Bregman has the longest odds at 8/1.

Prediction:

Let's first start with the decisions of Nationals Park. It's 336' down the left field line and 335' down the right. It's 402 to dead center and the ballpark mostly favors right-handed batters. In terms of right field, Nationals Park is a league-average stadium to right field but above average for home runs to left. 

While Aguilar is an attractive buy at 4/1, my money will be on Schwarber. He took special batting practice on Saturday to prepare himself for the Derby and he noted that the exercise taught him a few lessons.

“It goes by pretty fast,” Schwarber said. “The hang time (on pop-ups) can mess you up. You get so locked in, a pitcher throws a bad pitch and you pop it up, there goes your time instead of you just taking the pitch.”

 

2018 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby: Kyle Schwarber 11/2

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