Yankees vs. Phillies Tuesday Prediction

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6/26/2018 Prediction & Odds

The New York Yankees ended their losing streak on Monday night against the Philadelphia Phillies and tonight will look to make it two in a row versus the National League host. Given the pitching matchup, is the under a safe play for bettors?

Game Snapshot & Odds

973 New York Yankees (-210) at 974 Philadelphia Phillies (+185); 7.5 runs

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

7:05 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park

TV: NYY (YES); PHI (CSP)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Yankees as a -210 favorite. As of this writing, 62% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Yankees to beat the Phillies on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Yankees' Severino allows three runs in win over Mariners

Luis Severino improved to 11-2 after allowing three runs in 5 2/3 innings Thursday against the Mariners. It was far from Severino's best outing of the year, but it was just good enough in what ended up being a 4-3 game. It's only the fourth time in 16 starts that Severino has allowed as many as three runs and also the fourth time that he failed to complete six innings (he's pitched at least five in every start). The Yankees are 14-2 when he pitches.

Phillies' Arrieta surrenders three runs in no-decision vs. Cards

Jake Arrieta allowed three earned runs over six innings Wednesday in a no-decision versus the Cardinals. Philly wound up winning this one 4-3 courtesy of a go-ahead home run by Odubel Herrera in the bottom of the seventh inning. Arrieta fared well against every Cardinals hitter other than Yadier Molina, who hit a solo homer in the top of the second and a two-run shot in the top of the sixth. The 32-year-old right-hander has a 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 54/26 K/BB ratio in 79 innings this season, though he's been a little shakier lately. He'll face the Yankees next in what figures to be a tough test

MLB Betting Trends

New York

The Yankees are 42-16 in their last 58 games overall and 18-7 in their last 25 games versus National League East opponents.

Philadelphia

The Phillies have won 35 of their last 52 games following a loss and are 9-3 in their last 12 games versus a right-handed starter.

Prediction:

Regression is coming for Arrieta. While he owns a 3.42 ERA, his FIP of 3.99 and his xFIP of 4.16 point to at least a small regression (as does his .271 BABIP, which suggests he's been somewhat fortunate this year). The Yankees haven't exactly been ripping the cover off the ball lately but as we know, this is one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. While I don't feel comfortable laying the -200 on the money line, I do see some value laying the 1.5 on the runline.

 

The Pick: New York Yankees -1.5

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