Red Sox vs. Twins Thursday Prediction
The Minnesota Twins will go for the sweep of the Boston Red Sox on Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET. Will the BoSox salvage the final game of the series or will the Twins break out the brooms?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Thursday, June 21, 2018
1:10 p.m. ET, Target Field
TV: BOS (NESN); MIN (FSNO)
Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.
Public Betting Trends
Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Red Sox as a -135 favorite. As of this writing, 71% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Red Sox to beat the Twins on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Red Sox Porcello settles down after rough start vs. Mariners
Rick Porcello gave up four runs in six innings, but did strikeout nine in a no decision against the Mariners on Friday. Porcello struggled out of the gate, giving up three runs in the first two innings. After that, the former Cy Young award settled down nicely, and missed plenty of bats over the final four innings. His ERA now sits at 3.70 on the season over 92 1/3 innings, and he's struck out 89 hitters. Porcello gets another start on Thursday in Minnesota against the Twins.
Twins' Gibson holds Indians to just one run in previous outing
Kyle Gibson spun seven innings of one-run ball in a 6-3 win over the Indians on Friday. Gibson gave up just three hits on the night, with the run scoring on an RBI single from Yan Gomes in the sixth inning. He fanned three and walked four for just his second victory of the season and his first since his season debut. Of course, Gibson has deserved much better. He’s sporting a 3.27 ERA through 14 starts. Up next is a start against the Red Sox at home.
MLB Betting Trends
The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games overall but have won eight of Porcello's last 10 starts coming off five days of rest.
The Twins are 4-1 in their last five games overall and have won 15 of Gibson's last 22 starts.
I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox won't come away with one win in this series and their price of -135 today isn't overly expensive. Porcello has a 4.35 ERA on the year but his 4.07 SIERA suggests that he has at least a small positive regression coming his way. His walk rate is excellent at 5.4% and while his hard contact rate of 35.7% is a concern, it's nearly identical to Gibson's 36.4%, and the Minnesota starter will face a better lineup than Porcello. I actually think both pitchers fare well today so the under might be a good option but again, I don't see the Red Sox being swept.
The Pick: Boston Red Sox -135