Cardinals vs. Phillies Wednesday Pick

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6/20/2018 Prediction & Odds

The St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies have played two wild games in their three-game series. Who will win the rubber match when these two clubs wrap things up Wednesday at 1:05 p.m. ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

951 St. Louis Cardinals (+100) at 952 Philadelphia Phillies (-120); 8.5 runs

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

8:10 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park

TV: STL (FSMW); PHI (CSP)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Phillies as a -120 favorite. As of this writing, 55% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cardinals to beat the Phillies on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Cardinals' Wacha destroyed by Cubs in last outing

Michael Wacha was knocked around for nine runs (eight earned) in four-plus innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Wacha gave up seven hits on the night, including three homers. He had already allowed five runs through four innings before beginning the fifth, but he failed to retire any of the four batters he faced to begin the frame. He gave up a three-run homer to Kyle Schwarber along the way and the fourth run was charged to him after he left the game. Wacha was probably due for an off-night, but this was the first time he even allowed more than two earned runs in a start dating back to April 12. He had allowed three home runs combined over his previous 12 starts. He’ll bring a 3.24 ERA into a start against the Phillies on the road next week.

Phillies' Arrieta has short night in loss to Brewers

Jake Arrieta lasted just 3 1/3 innings while allowing eight runs (four earned) in a loss against the Brewers on Friday. Arrieta wasn’t at his best, but neither was the Phillies’ defense, as they committed three errors behind him and four errors overall on the night. Scott Kingery made two of them, including a critical one in a five-run second inning. All told, Arrieta allowed seven hits (including a two-run homer to Christian Yelich) while walking two batters and striking out one. He’s yielded 13 runs over his last three starts, boosting his ERA from 2.16 to 3.33 in the process. He’ll try to reverse that trend in a start against the Cardinals next week.

MLB Betting Trends

St. Louis

The Cardinals are now 18-7 in their last 25 games versus the Phillies.

Philadelphia

After the over cashed again last night, the combined score has gone over the betting total in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.

Prediction:

Both of these pitchers have had success against the current opposing roster but with the way these teams have swung the bats in this series, I'm not touching the under. Instead, I'm banking on Wacha getting blown up again given his advanced profile. For example, his 4.22 SIERA is higher than his 3.84 ERA. His strikeout (21.9%) and walk (8.6%) rates are merely average and his hard contact rate (32.9%) isn't anything to write home about either. His BABIP is still an incredibly low .243 and that's even after the Cubs beat him up in his last start. Essentially, he's gotten ground balls and received great batted-ball luck to this point, which makes his ERA look better than what it should be.

 

The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -120

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