Blue Jays vs. Phillies Saturday Pick
After dropping the opener in the series, the Philadelphia Phillies look to rebound on Saturday afternoon when they host the Toronto Blue Jays again at 4:05 p.m. ET. Will the Phillies win as big favorites?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Saturday, May 26, 2018
4:05 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park
TV: TOR (SNET); PHI (CSP)
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Public Betting Trends
Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Phillies as a -195 favorite. As of this writing, 68% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Phillies to beat the Blue Jays on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Blue Jays' Garcia pounded in his last start before DL stint
Jaime Garcia was tagged for six runs in 3 2/3 innings Tuesday in a loss to the Mets. It's the second time in three starts that Garcia has gotten pulled in the fourth, and his ERA stands at 6.28. His rotation spot would be in serious doubt if not for Marcus Stroman going on the disabled list, and it might be anyway.
Phillies' Nola has five-game winning streak snapped by Cardinals
Aaron Nola allowed four runs over six innings Sunday in a loss to the Cardinals. Nola gave up seven hits and a walk in his six innings of work, snapping a five-start winning streak with the loss. To put it in contrast, he'd allowed just two runs in his previous three starts combined before letting in four Sunday.
That speaks to how good he's been on the whole through 10 starts, owning a 2.37 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 57/14 K/BB ratio in 64 2/3 innings. He'll try to get a new streak going Saturday against the Blue Jays.
MLB Betting Trends
Following their win on Friday night, the Blue Jays have won 11 of their last 12 games at Citizens Bank Park and are 14-3 in their last 17 games versus the Phillies overall.
The over is now 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia and is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall.
When Garcia is right, he's an elite ground ball pitcher that has stifled lefties but he's been the exact opposite this season. For his career, Garcia owns a 55.6% ground ball rate but this season that number is down to 38.6%. He's also giving up a ton of hard contact (40%) and will be pitching in a hitter's park today against an underrated Philadelphia offense. I expect Nola to rebound from his last start and thus, I'll lay the -1.5 on the runline.
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5