Blue Jays vs. Mets Wednesday Pick

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets, 5/16/2018 Prediction & Odds

The New York Mets find themselves as a home underdog on Wednesday afternoon against the Toronto Blue Jays. After breaking out for 12 runs on Tuesday night, are the Mets a good bet to beat J.A. Happ and the Jays?

Game Snapshot & Odds

923 Toronto Blue Jays (-130) at 924 New York Mets (+110); 7.5 runs

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

1:10 p.m. ET, Citi Field

TV: TOR (SNET); NYM (SNY)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Blue Jays as a -130 favorite. As of this writing, 54% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Blue Jays to beat the Mets on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Blue Jays' Happ pummeled in last start

J.A. Happ struggled mightily in a loss to the Mariners on Thursday, allowing 10 hits and seven runs over 3 1/3 innings. Sometimes when a guy has a bad game there are still some silver linings one can point to -- "Well, at least he didn't allow any home runs," or "Hey, at least he grabbed some strikeouts" -- but there were no such silver linings to be found on this night.

Happ just didn't have it from the outset, serving up a pair of homers among his 10 hits allowed while walking two and striking out just three. Perhaps the only positive takeaway is that it was by far his worst start of the year to date, as he was decent or better in each of his first seven outings. The bad start leaves him with a 4-3 record, 4.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP as he looks to rebound Wednesday in an interleague meeting with the Mets.

Mets' Wheeler goes six innings, allows one run vs. Reds

Zack Wheeler worked six innings of one-run ball Wednesday in a no-decision against the Reds. Cincinnati wound up winning the game in the bottom of the 10th inning, with the loss going to A.J. Ramos. Wheeler did his part, striking out seven batters while holding the Reds to just four hits. He did walk three. The 27-year-old right-hander will carry a 5.03 ERA and 1.44 WHIP into his next start at home against the Blue Jays.

MLB Betting Trends

Toronto

Following last night's 12-2 loss, the Blue Jays are now 0-6 in their last six games against the Mets in New York.

New York

The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams when the Mets host, and is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall.

Prediction:

I firmly expect Happ to rebound off his poor start against the Mariners. There was nothing in his advanced numbers that indicate a poor regression; he simply just had a bad start. His SIERA (3.88) and ERA (3.83) are both solid, his strikeout rate (24.2%) and walk rate (7.2%) are both excellent and he's generating a lot of ground balls (47.5%).  He's the better pitcher in this matchup and the Blue Jays are relatively cheap at -130.

The Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -130

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