Reds vs. Pirates Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies have been inconsistent in the early going of 2018 but they'll have an opportunity to add to their win total when they take on a struggling and depleted Cincinnati Reds club tonight at home. Will the Phillies capitalize on the wounded Reds or will their Jekyll and Hyde ways continue to frustrate fans and bettors?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Monday, April 9, 2018
7:05 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park
TV: FSO (CIN); CSP (PHI)
(Odds courtesy of online sportsbooks YouWager)
Public Betting Trends
As of this writing, 72% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Phillies to beat the Reds on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Cincinnati Reds Pitching Staff has Been Brutal in Early Going
The Reds are off to a slow start and while they have many issues, pitching is chief among their problems. They have the worst team ERA in baseball, producing a collective ERA of 6.13 through eight games, just two of which were wins. They'll send Cody Reed to the hill on Monday night in Philadelphia hoping for a spark.
"I will just go out there and compete and hope for the best," Reed told MLB.com on Sunday. "I can only control what I can control. I can control the game tomorrow. After that, it's not really in my hands."
The Reds haven't had much success when Reed toes the rubber. He owns a 1-8 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.776 WHIP in 22 major league appearances (11 starts). The good news for Reed? After scoring a whopping 20 runs on Saturday against the Marlins, the Phillies' offense came back to earth on Sunday when they plated only three runs in a 6-3 loss.
Philadelphia Phillies Ben Lively to Face Team that Drafted Him
The Phillies will counter tonight with Ben Lively, who is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA to start the season. He struck out five batters and allowed two runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings of work last Tuesday versus the Mets.
Lively was selected by the Reds in the fourth round of the 2013 MLB Draft but Monday night will be the first time he faces his former team. At least he won't have to face third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who fractured his right thumb when he was hit by a pitch in Sunday's loss to the Pirates. Suarez had two home runs and seven RBI in eight games and will be placed on the disabled list. It's a massive blow to an already struggling lineup.
MLB Betting Trends
The Reds are winless at 0-11 in Reed's last 11 starts and are 0-6 in his last six road outings.
The Phillies have won six of their last seven games at home and are 12-2 in their last 14 games when facing a left-handed starter.
On Sunday, I predicted that the Phillies would use the momentum from their 20-run outburst on Saturday to beat the Marlins behind Jake Arrieta. The only problem is that Arrieta struggled out the gates while surrendering three runs in the first inning. Philly would eventually tie the score but its bullpen blew the game late in a 6-3 loss.
Nevertheless, this is a reasonable price to pay for a Phillies team that should light up Reed. This is a bad spot to back the Reds, especially with Suarez now hurt.
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -130