Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction

MLB Predictions: Will Brewers tag Jon Lester, beat Cubs? 4/5/18

Jon Lester was shaky in his season debut last week in Miami but will he rebound when the Chicago Cubs visit the Milwaukee Brewers tonight at 8:10 p.m. ET?

Game Snapshot

(961) Chicago Cubs at (962) Milwaukee Brewers

Thursday, April 5, 2018

TV: N/A, 8:10 p.m. ET

Likely Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester vs. Brent Suter

CURRENT ODDS

According to oddsmakers from online sports book YouWager, the Cubs are -112 moneyline favorites to beat the Brewers, who have +102 money line odds to pull off the upset tonight. The total sits at 9 runs.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Cubs opened as -135 moneyline favorites but despite receiving backing from public bettors, their line dropped to -112 at the majority of online sportsbooks. The Brewers, meanwhile, opened as +115 moneyline underdogs but their line improved to +102. The total, meanwhile, remains at 9 runs.

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PUBLIC BETTING INFORMATION

As of this writing, 62% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cubs to beat the Brewers on the money line. Meanwhile, 67% of the betting tickets are on the over.

OUR PREDICTION

As bettors, we also look for value, right? Well tonight we have a case of the Cubs receiving 62% of the betting tickets online and yet their odds to win got worse. That signals reverse line movement with sharps backing the home underdog. From an on-field standpoint, Lester is coming off a poor 2017 season and his debut was crap as well. His fastball was roughly one MPH slower than last year’s and 1.5 mph slower than it was in 2016. Even though Lester’s production might not be quite ready to fall completely off a cliff, chances are we are witnessing a 34-year-old in decline. The fact that he allowed a combined 10 hits and walks in over just 3.1 innings to a punchless Marlins offense doesn’t bode well for him tonight. The Brewers could be without Christian Yelich but they still have plenty of hitters that can rake. I’m jumping on the dog.

 

THURSDAY MLB PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE BREWERS +105

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