Scottie Scheffler heads to Long Island this week as the betting favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. The world No. 1 opens at +500, and he arrives chasing the one major that still eludes him - a U.S. Open title would complete the career Grand Slam for Scheffler.
The championship also returns to a course that famously punishes anything but precise ball-striking. Below is a full breakdown of the 2026 U.S. Open odds, the favorites at the top of the board, mid-tier value plays, and longshots worth tracking at Shinnecock.
Last Updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
2026 U.S. OPEN Round 1 DATE, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, Southampton, NY |
| When | Thursday, June 18 – 6:45 AM ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Scottie Scheffler Leads 2026 U.S. Open Odds
Scheffler enters as the world No. 1 and the clear chalk at +500. He has held the top ranking for a long, unbroken run, and he already owns a win plus several top-10 finishes this season. Shinnecock rewards elite tee-to-green play, and that has long been the core of his game. The course demands accuracy and patience, two traits that fit his profile better than almost anyone in the field. He also entered as the favorite when the Tour played the Memorial Tournament earlier this season.
A victory would also finish the career Grand Slam, since the U.S. Open is the only major missing from his résumé. He was the runner-up at the Masters earlier this year, so the form is clearly there. For a player this complete, Shinnecock's tee-to-green test reads as an advantage rather than an obstacle. The motivation factor is real, and it adds to the case for the favorite.
The price, however, is the problem. At +500, Scheffler carries an implied probability of roughly 16.7 percent. That is a steep number in a 156-man major where variance runs high. He has never won a U.S. Open, and this setup can expose even small wobbles on the greens. A hot week from Rory McIlroy at +600 or Jon Rahm at +1400 would quickly undercut the lean.
Still, no one in this field matches his blend of accuracy, consistency, and motivation. The market has Scheffler on top for good reason, and the price looks justified rather than inflated. He is the most likely winner on the board. The call goes wrong if his putter cools, or if the fescue turns the week into a survival test that levels the field.
2026 U.S. OPEN ODDS TO WIN | |
|---|---|
| Name | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +500 |
| Rory McIlroy | +600 |
| Jon Rahm | +1400 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1800 |
| Cameron Young | +2000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, June 13, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest Golf Odds - Props
Mid-Tier Value at Shinnecock Hills
The most defensible U.S. Open value usually sits below the top tier. There, proven players avoid the favorite premium attached to the names at the top of the board. At a course this demanding, accuracy off the tee matters more than raw power.
Russell Henley (+4000) offers some of the best mid-board value on the page. He won earlier this season at Colonial and ranks among the most accurate players in the field. He also owns a strong recent record in this championship, including time near the lead at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock. His patient, fairways-and-greens style is exactly what this course rewards. The knock is that he lacks a major title, so the closing question remains open.
Tyrrell Hatton (+4000) arrives after a win at his last start at Valderrama. He also contended deep into the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont before falling short. He brings a complete all-around game and the competitive edge that tough setups demand. The downside is consistency, since his rounds can swing once the wind picks up.
Shane Lowry (+5000) carries genuine links pedigree as a former Open champion. He thrives on courses that ask for shot-making and ball-flight control rather than bombing. The upside is a game built for firm, windy tests like this one. The downside is that he has not closed out a major since 2019, so the finishing concern is fair.
Longshots and U.S. Open Storylines
Defending champion J.J. Spaun (+8000) returns after his dramatic 2025 win at Oakmont, capped by a 64-foot birdie on the 72nd hole. Repeat champions are rare, and that history keeps the price long. Even so, the number reflects doubt more than any clear flaw, and he is a defensible deep play for bettors hunting a ceiling.
Corey Conners (+8000) is one of the most accurate drivers on tour, a trait that travels well to Shinnecock's narrow corridors. He has never broken through in a major, which keeps the price out at four figures. The ball-striking, though, fits this test as well as anyone outside the favorites. Sam Burns (+6500) rounds out the deep options with a strong all-around game, although his major record remains thin.
Several storylines frame the week beyond the board. Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) finished runner-up at the 2018 U.S. Open here, losing by one to Brooks Koepka, and he returns still chasing a first major. Fleetwood was also the favorite at the RBC Canadian Open this month. Scheffler's Grand Slam pursuit is the headline thread. Meanwhile, Shinnecock's reworked setup, with fairways widened to an average of 48 yards and a five-inch first cut, will shape how aggressive players can be off the tee.
2026 U.S. Open Betting FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +500. The world No. 1 is chasing the career Grand Slam, with the U.S. Open the only major missing from his résumé.
Who do you like to win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the lean at +500. His accuracy and tee-to-green consistency fit Shinnecock, though a hot putter from a rival or the brutal setup could undercut the call.
When does the 2026 U.S. Open start?
The first round begins Thursday, June 18, 2026, with the opening tee times at 6:45 a.m. ET at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.
What channel is the 2026 U.S. Open on?
USA Network carries the early-round coverage on Thursday and Friday, while NBC and Peacock handle the weekend rounds.
Who won the U.S. Open last year?
J.J. Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont, closing with a 64-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole for a two-stroke victory.
What is the par and yardage at Shinnecock Hills?
Shinnecock Hills plays to a par of 70 and stretches to 7,440 yards for the 2026 U.S. Open.