[bimmercando]

Service Plays Jan 17-19
(having issues creating a trhead and getting onto the site )

Circa Football Invitational – BY ENTRY​
Chris Macero (80 PTS – 1st) – (74-53-2)
Mon, Jan 19 – Miami FL (+8.5) vs Indiana * BEST BET
Sun, Jan 18 – Patriots (-3) vs Texans
Sat, Jan 17 – Bills at Broncos – UNDER (46)

Scott Pritchard (75 PTS – 2nd) – (69-56-4)
Mon, Jan 19 – Miami FL (+8.5) vs Indiana * BEST BET
Sat, Jan 17 – Bills (+1.5) at Broncos
Sun, Jan 18 – Rams (-3.5) at Bears

Chris Fallica (74.5 PTS – 3rd) – (68-57-4)
Mon, Jan 19 – Miami FL (+8.5) vs Indiana * BEST BET
Sat, Jan 17 – Seahawks (-7) vs 49ers
Sun, Jan 18 – Rams (-3.5) at Bears

Kenny White (73.5 PTS – 4th) – (67-59-3)
Mon, Jan 19 – Indiana (-8.5) vs Miami FL * BEST BET
Sat, Jan 17 – Bills (+1.5) at Broncos
Mon, Jan 19 – Miami FL vs Indiana – OVER (47)

Frank Carulli (73 PTS – 5th) – (66-59-4)
Sat, Jan 17 – Bills at Broncos – UNDER (46) * BEST BET
Sun, Jan 18 – Rams at Bears – OVER (48.5)
Sun, Jan 18 – Patriots (-3) vs Texans

Matt Ste. Marie (73 PTS – 5th) – (68-60-1)
Sun, Jan 18 – Patriots (-3) vs Texans * BEST BET
Sat, Jan 17 – Bills at Broncos – UNDER (46)
Sun, Jan 18 – Rams (-3.5) at Bears

Jason Jarvis (72.5 PTS – 7th) – (65-62-2)
Sun, Jan 18 – Bears (+3.5) vs Rams * BEST BET
Sat, Jan 17 – Broncos (-1.5) vs Bills
Sat, Jan 17 – Seahawks (-7) vs 49ers

Meyer / Sack (69.5 PTS – 8th) – (63-64-2)
Sun, Jan 18 – Patriots (-3) vs Texans * BEST BET
Sun, Jan 18 – Rams (-3.5) at Bears
Sun, Jan 18 – Rams at Bears – UNDER (48.5)

[bimmercando]

Seems better now….

JIMMY ADAMS​
(391) BUFFALO BILLS AT (392) DENVER BRONCOS: MONEYLINE​
Date/Time:Jan 17 2026 4:30 PM EST
Line Provider:Fanduel
Play Rating:5%
Odds:+100
Play:Buffalo Bills 100

Jacksonville was a popular pick with many bettors last week, allowing the clients and I to come in on the other side and cash a nice ticket with Buffalo. Now the Bills head to Denver winners of 6 of their past 7, with the lone loss over that span coming by 1 point to the then defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. Josh Allen is a “bet on” quarterback this time of year, and he was the ultimate difference maker in their Wild Card win. He does things that most quarterbacks can’t, and his decision making has drastically improved over the years.
The Broncos have had an extra week to prepare, but we’ve seen that backfire many times throughout the years. In fact, you can make a strong argument that having a road playoff win already under your belt is an advantage. When we look at the analytics, Buffalo ranks 3rd in EPA per play on offense, while Denver sits down at 15th. That’s a drastic difference and one that could very well decide this game. The Broncos have found ways to win, but this is not a team you can count on to put points up with regularity, having scored 20 or fewer in their past 3 games. While everyone agrees that Sean Payton’s defense is solid, the differential isn’t as big as many may think. Denver is 8th in EPA per play defensively with Buffalo coming in at 13th. The Bills are also 2ndin the NFL in opponent passing yards per game, so a few big mistakes from Bo Nix will have a very meaningful impact. Speaking of quarterbacks, when just looking at the advanced metrics, Josh Allen grades out 4th in the model that I use. Nix is 19th. When the game is on the line, you want the ball in Josh Allen’s hands. This team as a whole has a lot of playoff experience, and given their current form, we can fully expect them to pick up this divisional round win and move on to the conference championship. Take the Bills ML.
5% Play on Bills MONEYLINE at -130 or better, 4% at worse than -130

Zachary Cohen

NFL
Broncos -115
Prop Play Broncos RB RJ Harvey Over 48.5 rushing yards

Seahawks -7
Prop Play Seahawks QB Sam Darnold Over 233.5 passing yards

Pickswise Sports

NFL (Regular Season +78.1 units & Playoffs +15.2 units)
3* Broncos -1
3* Under 46.5

4* Under 45.5
3* Seahawks -7

Saturday NFL Divisional Playoff Betting Trends

Bills at Broncos (-1½, 46): A rematch of a wild-card game last season won and covered by the host Buffalo Bills, 31-7. The Bills are 1-2 straight up and against the spread the past three seasons in the divisional round. Buffalo is 5-4 ATS away from home this season and 9-9 ATS overall. The Bills are on a 6-3 under run on the road, and the Broncos are on a 12-7 under run overall. Denver has won 13 of its past 14 home games, but hasn’t won a playoff game since Super Bowl 50 at Santa Clara, California, in 2016, and is on a 3-9 spread slide as a favorite. Edge: Under and slight to Broncos.

49ers at Seahawks (-7, 45): The NFC West rivals split their two meetings this season, with the road team winning and covering each time. The visiting team has won and covered all four meetings since last season, and the Niners have won and covered their past four trips to Seattle. The past three meetings have gone under. San Francisco has won and covered seven of its past eight games overall and its past five on the road. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has won and covered four of his past five road playoff games. San Francisco is 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season. The Seahawks have won seven in a row but went 4-3 ATS in those games. Seattle is 4-4 ATS at home this season. Edge: 49ers and slight to under.

ATS.bet
NFL Playoffs Saturday 1/17/26
3Units: 2Team 7pt Teaser Or Alternative Parlay (-130)
Buffalo Bills +8.5
SF 49ers +14

Weekend football predictions: Pro sports bettors pick NFL playoff games​
The road team has won and covered the past four meetings between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, and the Niners have won and covered their past four trips to Seattle.

“Dr. Alan” Dumond, who hit his two best bets in the Las Vegas Review-Journal last week, expects San Francisco to cover at Seattle again as a 7-point road underdog in Saturday’s NFL divisional round playoff game.

“The 49ers arrive into Seattle confident off their upset win over the Eagles and have a chance to avenge their Week 18 loss to the Seahawks,” Dumond said. “The 49ers’ coach-quarterback combo of Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy have a huge playoff experience edge over the Seahawks’ coach-quarterback combo of Mike Macdonald and Sam Darnold, neither of whom has won a playoff game.

“For as well as the Seahawks have played this year, this is simply too many points for them to be laying in a game of this magnitude.”

Dumond also likes the Los Angeles Rams-Chicago Bears game Sunday to go under 48½.

“Despite both sides being involved in high-scoring affairs last week, we expect both defenses to play better this week,” he said. “Both squads will likely lean on their running games more in the expected frigid weather conditions, with the possibility of high winds.”

Here are four more best bets (home team in CAPS):

Rams (-3½) over BEARS​

The Bears have seven fourth-quarter comeback wins this season, including last week’s home victory over the rival Green Bay Packers. But pro sports bettor Scott Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com) expects their magic to run out against the Rams.

“Congrats to the Bears with another miracle fluke comeback win last week,” he said. “Luck is not a strategy. Rams with No. 1 offense in yards and points is.”

BRONCOS (-1) over Bills​
“Denver seems to be downgraded by many in the pundit class because Sean Payton’s team cut it awfully close on many occasions this season, standing 11-2 in one-score games,” CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “Yet the truth might rather be that Denver is very comfortable playing these sorts of games.

“Denver’s NFL-best pass rush is going to force (Bills quarterback) Josh Allen into lots of improvising, at which he is very good, but … we still maintain the Bills aren’t quite to recent levels because of the defense, and pulling a rabbit out of the hat last week at Jacksonville is no indicator it will happen again.”

PATRIOTS (-3) over Texans​

“It’s hard to find value with sharp playoff lines, but New England shows value in my model. They get the benefit of home cooking and field the possible MVP in quarterback Drake Maye,” said pro bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “Experienced coaching will be a benefit versus the very capable Texans, who are faced with key injuries, not to mention some seriously poor play by quarterback C.J. Stroud last week.

“I also like a money line parlay of Seattle and New England for +105.”

Texans (+3½) over PATRIOTS​
“I bet Houston +3½ and still like it at +3 even,” said pro bettor Randy McKay (@RR39), who correctly called the Texans’ win and cover over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. “The Texans defense reminds me of the 2001 Baltimore Ravens. Hopefully quarterback C.J. Stroud doesn’t mess it up like he did versus the Steelers (with three turnovers).

“I believe their offensive line is better than the Patriots’ and will have the offensive success that the Los Angeles Chargers didn’t (in last week’s 16-3 wild-card loss). New England is still a young team, and Houston’s experience will win out.”

Scott Pritchard

Bills (13-5) at Broncos (14-3)​

Time: 1:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS
Line/total: Broncos -1½, 46

Analysis: In the last meeting between these teams, the Broncos were routed 31-7 by the Bills in Buffalo in last season’s wild-card playoffs. Although Denver has greatly fortified its defense since then to leap into the top four in most statistical categories, the question remains how they will slow down the Bills offensive juggernaut led by quarterback Josh Allen, the reigning NFL MVP who dismantled the Jaguars’ highly-touted defense with his arm and feet last week. He rushed for two touchdowns while passing for 273 yards. The Broncos’ greater dilemma might be how they improve on those seven points they scored in their last meeting with Buffalo, as their just slightly above average offense must face the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense. Unfortunately for Denver, the old French phrase, “the more things change, the more they stay the same,” applies again, and the victory goes to the Bills behind another valiant effort.

Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 20
———————————————————————–
49ers (13-5) at Seahawks (14-3)​
Time: 5 p.m. Saturday, Fox
Line/total: Seahawks -7, 45

Analysis: These teams just played each other two weeks ago, when the Seahawks dominated the 49ers while dealing them an ego-crushing 13-3 defeat at Santa Clara, Calif. The Seahawks dominated not so much in the final score, which would have been more lopsided if not for a couple missed field goals by Seattle kicker Jason Myers, but by the way the Seahawks defense stymied the Niners offense, limiting them to 173 total yards and nine first downs. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald calls the plays on defense for the Seahawks, and he’s had the inside angle on defending 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy since 2023 when Macdonald was defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, when they intercepted Purdy four times. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan will have to pull more than a few rabbits out of his hat to lift the Niners’ pass-reliant offense without tight end George Kittle against the NFL’s No. 1 defense in points allowed and third-down conversions. Offensive failures will put even more pressure on a 49ers defense that can be called average at best. In the end, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and Seattle’s third-ranked scoring offense proves too talented to contain.

Pick: Seahawks 24, 49ers 20

Brandon Lang
The Pick: My 200 Dime winner is the Denver Broncos

The Line: The current line is -1 1/2 at the majority of books in Vegas and offshore as of 8:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

Note: None at this price. You play it as it is.

Steve Fezzik

2* Buf/Den UN 46
2* Sea RB Walker OVER 58.5 ru†sh yards -115
2* Sea RB Charbonnet OVER 48.5 rush yards -115
2* Sea QB Darnold UNDER 238.5 pass yards -115

Brady Kannon
NFL
1 Unit Buff +1.5 -115

Emory Hunt
NFL

1 Unit Buf -1.5 +100
1 Unit SF +7.5 -114

Micah Roberts
1 Unit Over 45.5 -112 Buf / DEN
1 Unit Den -103
1 Unit SF +7.5 -110
1 Unit Over 44.5 -110 SF / SEA

Gianni the Greek
NFL
4% TEASER PROP Buffalo +7.5 & Seattle -1/2

Thomas Casale
NCAAB
1 Unit N. Carolina -3.5 -110

NFL
1 Unit Zach Charbonnett Over 9.5 Total Receiving Yards -113

[bimmercando]

Ben Burns
4% Texas St ML -135
4% Broncos +1.5 (-122)

Jeff Hochman
1* Calgary Flames -110

Marc Lawrence
3* San Fran+7

Bob Balfe
2025 VIP Football Record (103-97)

Bills +1.5 over Broncos
Seahawks -7 over 49ers
Seahawks/49ers Over 45.5

SmartMoneySports
NFL
Denver Broncos -1 (4u)
Seattle Seahawks -7 (3u)
Seattle Seahawks Team Total Over 27.5 (3u)
Seattle Seahawks Over 45 (2u)

Wise Guy Picks (Luca Rossi)

NCAA BB @600 PM TEXAS A&M +5 (4 stars)
NHL @800 PM CHICAGO +115 (3.5 stars)
NFL @430 PM DENVER -1 (4 stars)

William Burns
Goy
Brown

Bruce Marshall
NFL
Denver Broncos ML (-110)
San Francisco 49ers +7 (-105)

Jimmy Adams

5% Bills +100

Ross Benjamin start times are Central and approximate

2% Buffalo at (622) Miami Ohio: Total Over 159.5 (-108) noon
2% Alabama at (632) Oklahoma: Total Over 172.5 (-110). Noon
2% Central Florida +10.0 (-110). 3pm
3% Bills/Broncos Total Under 46.5 (-120)
2% New Jersey Devils -102
4% Seattle Seahawks -7.0 (-110) 7pm

Silky Sullivan
8 unit NHL
Florida Panthers +120

Wayne Root
Pinnacle- Broncos -1 (division Goy)
Gold Standard- Seattle -7

Northcoast NFL
Top Opinions
Seahawks -7
Regular Opinions
Broncos -1
Broncos/Bills Under 46
49ers/Seahawks Under 44.5

Here is Sunday
4.5* Playoffs Game of the Year Patriots -3
3.5* Bears/Rams Over 48.5
Marquee
Patriots/Texans Under 41
Rams -4

BetLabs
Bills / Broncos U46 -110 (1U)
Utah Jazz +4 (1U)

[bimmercando]

Added plays including some ncaab ( which i dont follow )

ASA. 6 star. Ohio State

Bob Balfe
2025 VIP Football Record (103-97)

Bills +1.5 over Broncos
Seahawks -7 over 49ers
Seahawks/49ers Over 45.5

Porter Picks

DENVER BRONCOS (-115) over Buffalo Bills (5-UNITS)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7) (-105) over San Francisco 49ERS (3-UNITS)

NFL BONUS MONEYLINE PARLAY SELECTION SEAHAWKS & LA RAMS @ (+100) (4-UNITS)

HOUSTON TEXANS (+3) (+100) over New England Patriots (4-UNITS)

Big Al

NHL
1* La Kings -114

NBA
1* Wizards +13

CBB
4* Northwestern +6

4* Oregon +18.5

4* Santa Clara – 1.5

3* N. Arizona +12.5

3* USC +9

1* Buffalo +10.5
1* Indiana -2.5
1* SE Missouri St. -7

1* Oral Roberts – 1
1* Kansas St. +4.5

NFL
1* Seahawks Over 44.5

Kyle Hunter
4* Fordham UNDER 149
12:30 PM EST
*4 Star

NFL:
3* Broncos UNDER 46

CBB

4* Howard OVER 133?
4:30 PM EST

3*UT-Rio Grande Valley
OVER 137?
5:30 PM EST

3* Valparaiso UNDER 130?
3:00 PM EST

3* North Alabama UNDER 136?
3:00 PM EST

3* Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 163?
2:00 PM

Bill “Krackman” Krackomberger

1.5% [NFL] PROP PICK Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze Receptions Under 2.5
2% [NFL] PROP PICK San Francisco 49ers Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Over 54.5 (-112)

Jack Jones

15*Kentucky
15*Missouri
15*Northwestern
15*USC
15*Western Michigan
15*Seattle
15*Idaho State Over
15*Elon Over
15*North Dakota Over
20*GOW UCF
20*TOW Buffalo Over
20*TOW Yale Over
20*TOW Northridge Over

20*GOW Spurs
15*Spurs Under
15*Warriors Over
15*Blazers Under

15*49ers
20*Broncos (ML)

Executive
300 Denver Broncos

Indian Cowboy CBK
7-Unit Play. Take Santa Clara ML (-120)

[bimmercando]

TBS
Whale
Alternate Line Parlay
Bills +4.5/U 54.5 (NFL)
$20,000 play

Others
Seahawks -7 (NFL)
Texas -4.5 (NCAAB)
Jazz +4 (NBA)

Whale play = 6%

Strike Point Sports
College Basketball

3u Syracuse -6
7u Indiana -2.5
3u UCF +7.5
2u Arkansas +2.5

Endzone
San Francisco

C Bianco
NHL
COLUMBUS/PITTSBURGH Over 6.5 3%

Midwest Mike Sports
8* 2 Team Parlay
SEA -300
LAR -200

Chip Chirimbes
ATL +3.5

THE DEGENERATES

denver ml
sf +7.5
seattle uder 45.5

TOR +115
PIT Over 6.5 -125
EDM -1.5 +140

BOS -2.5
SA -5.5
DEN -12

Aaa
Goy Unc Greensboro +7

Dave Essler
3* GOM Seattle First Half -4

Vernon Croy
7u Buffalo +1
5U SF +7

Docs
4u Buffalo -1
2U SF +7

Vsi
3U Broncos-1

Jason Sharpe
4u Buffalo +1.5
3U SF +7

August Young
6u Buffalo +1

RJ White
SF +7
SF under 45.5

PM
WINNERS PATH
denver

PAUL BOVI
seattle -7
seattle over 26.5 TEAM total

MIKE TIERNEY
denver -1
seattle under 44.5

BRIAN EDWARDS
san francisco +7.5
buffalo +1.5

BILL MARZANO
seattle first half -3.5
sf first half only team total under 9.5
denver ML

Vernon Croy

7* BUF +1
5* SF +7
7* VGK -1.5 +100

Your daily Capper
2U Seattle -6 Alternate

All 1 unit
Broncos ML
Texas Tech ML

NHL 1 unit each
Utah 3way in regulation
Winnipeg ML

[bimmercando]

Ben Burns
2% Magic 1H -148
3% San Francisco -5.5 (-110)
5% Rams/Bears 1H u24.5 (-120)

Brandon Lang
The Pick: My 150 Dime winner is the New England Patriots
The Line: The current line is -3 at the majority of books in Vegas and offshore as of 8:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

Note: If your line is anywhere from -3 to -4 1/2 I advise buying the 1/2 point down on the Pats.

My Analysis
It holds true today as well…they are just the better “TEAM.”

When the Patriots lost week 3 at home to the Steelers 21-14, they found themselves 1-2 with the Carolina Panthers coming to town.

You had whispers about Mike Vrabel, was he the right hire, same ole Patriots just like last year!!!!

Then they blew out the Panthers 42-13 and they have never looked back.

This New England bunch is 14-1 since that loss to the Steelers week 3 and the only loss in this run: Week 15 at home against Josh Allen and the Bills 35-31.

Trust me when I tell you, they never should have lost that game as they led 21-0 in the 2nd quarter and let it slip away.

Josh Allen was great in that 2nd half but I think we can all agree, CJ Stroud can’t hold Allen’s nuts in an orgy.

Last week at Pittsburgh Stroud struggled as he fumbled 5 times losing 2 of them and threw a pick.

He looked shaky and now faces a better defense in the Patriots and he faces them without his #1 wide receiver Nico Collins, out with a concussion.

Advantage New England.

As for the Pats offense versus this “great” Texans defense, I will just tell you this.

I don’t agree with everyone who views this Houston defense as being “elite.”

Their defensive line is but if those boys don’t get pressure, their secondary can be exposed,

See week 17 at home against the Cots and rookie QB Riley Leonard.

Now Houston was trying to win the game. To improve their seeding. Their starters across the board played!!!!!!

And look at Leonard’s numbers: 21 of 34 for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Colts put up 30 on this defense.

If Leonard was able to do that, on the road, against this defense, I am confident in Drake Maye’s ability to attack this defense as well.

Bottom line: Not taking anything away from Denver but this Patriots team has been the most dominant team in the AFC all year long.

And they will not lose this game today to this QB and this team, at home, the way they are playing right now.

Lay it as the Pats as they handle their business this afternoon.

Steve Fezzik
2* Chic Loveland OVER 4.5 catches -125

Emory Hunt
NFL
1 Unit Houston +3 -106
1 Unit Chicago +3.5 -104

King Creole
5* Over 48.5 or less Rams/Bears

Jack Jones
25*TOY Bears Over 48.5
15*Green Bay Over
15*UAB Over
20*GOW Fort Wayne

15*Kings
15*Nuggets Over

Vegas Sports Informer
5* LAR Over 48.5

Craig Trapp
7* LAR Over 48.5

Doc Sports
8U PGOY LA Rams-2.5 1st half

Executive
400% Rams

Marc Lawrence
3* Rams -3.5

JACK JONES
NFL
25*TOY Bears Over 48.5

CBB
20* GOW >> IND Fort Wayne
15*Green Bay Over
15*UAB Over

NBA
15*Kings
15*Nuggets Over

Your daily Capper
2U Texans +4
1U Rams -3
1U Sacramento ML
gunner77
gunner77
–

Will Rogers
5% New England -3

TBSportbetting
Whales
1-5 (145~105)
Whale
Texans +3.5

others
Rams under 24.5 FH
North Texas +1.5
Hornets +1.5

Bet Labs
HORNETS +1.5 (-110) 1U
TEXANS O40.5 -110 1U

Emory Hunt
NFL
1 Unit Houston +3 -106
1 Unit Chicago +3.5 -104

Bob Balfe
2025 VIP Football Record (105-98)
Texans +3 over Patriots
Rams -3.5 over Bears

Ricky Tran
GOY >> Sacramento Kings ML

Wise Guy (Luca Rossi)
NBA @930 PM TORONTO -1.5 (3.5 stars)
NHL @500 PM OTTAWA +125 (3 stars)
NFL @630 PM BEARS +4 (3 stars)

Larry Hartstein
Drake Maye Over 13.5 Longest Rush -112
NE -3
L.A. Rams Over 26.5 Total Pts -122
Puka Nacua Anytime Touchdown Scorer -115

Big Al McMordie

NFL Selections
4* Texans/Patriots Over 40.5, 3:00 pm BIG AL’S NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND TOTAL OF YEAR!
1* Bears/Rams Under 48.5, 6:30 pm

Will Brinson
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 18.5 Total Receiving Yards -118
CHI Over 50.5

RJ White
Houston Under 19.5 Total Pts -115
NE -2.5 -119
Puka Nacua Anytime Touchdown Scorer -115
Chicago +4.5 -118

Mike Tierney
NE -3
CHI Under 48.5

Joe Gavazzi

NFL PLAYOFFS – DIVISION ROUND
Sunday, Jan 18th
3% Houston Texans (+3.5) 3:00 PM ET

A weather forecast of mid 30’s with possible wintery mix on a Sunday afternoon in January in Boston should be a walk in the park for Houston QB Stroud who had numerous problems handling the ball in his last outing on MNF in Pittsburgh where the temperature was in the teens. Yet I heard no one in the broadcast booth make a reference to the frigid conditions as being a possible reason why QB Stroud, who has rarely played in sub-freezing temperatures, was having problems handling the ball. The Texans entered the 4th quarter leading only 7-6 because they were -3 Net TOs. That all evened out in the 4thquarter when Pittsburgh committed 2 turnovers and Houston scored 23 points for a 30-6 final that was far more competitive on the scoreboard for much of the game. That was not true, however, on the stat sheet where Houston totally dominated with a yardage edge of 408-175. Following that embarrassing Pittsburgh loss, Mike Tomlin resigned after 19 seasons as HC of the Steelers and will now be hunting for his next HC position which will pay him $20 million dollars/year, the amount that recently hired former Baltimore HC Harbaugh signed for with the NYG. But I digress. Little to complain about a New England team who went from 4-13 SU last season to 15-3 SU, 14-4 ATS and enters on a 4 game win streak after their 16-3 victory vs. the Chargers last Sunday on this field, a game in which they held a 381-207 edge. Key to the turnaround has been 1st year HC Vrabel, a former Patriot player who turned around the culture of this team and benefited from the 2ndyear improvement of QB May. They are a slightly superior offensive team to the visitor BUT, as we all witnessed on MNF, HOUSTON IS THE BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. That includes a +17 Net TO margin, 2nd only to the Bears in what figures to be a highly competitive contest. Even though New England holds the situational advantage in terms of rest and site, my opinion still lies with Houston as underdog in a game that could well go down to the final play. In that regard, PK Fairbairn is a most reliable weapon. Hidden advantage for Houston in this one is the stats that were accrued against the #4 schedule vs. the #32 SOS of New England.

3% LA Rams (-3.5) 6:30 PM ET
Each team has 8 days’ rest with Chicago benefiting from a home/home scenario vis a vis the Rams playing consecutive road games. We faded the Rams last week as the Panthers covered the double-digit spread which now means Wild Card Playoff home dogs are 37-15 ATS. They certainly did not expend as much energy as Chicago did in yet another comeback vs. Green Bay. Staying true to this year’s MO, the Bears trailed the Packers 3-21 at halftime. True to form, however, the Bears rallied for a 31-27 win when QB Williams connected on a 4th down TDP with 5 minutes remaining. Even more remarkable is that they overcame a -2 Net TO disadvantage to get the victory. Aided by their league-best +22 Net TO margin and win chills which may approach negative degrees, there are clear reasons why the Bears could build on their record of 7 wins by 6 or less points and winning 7 games when trailing at the 2 minute mark. The Rams, however, are clearly the better statistical team holding a 1.2 Net YPPL differential, easily qualifying in all 4 categories of the defensive metrics. Those numbers are against the hardest schedule in the league vis a vis the Bears who had a #24 SOS. They will certainly be prepared for the Bears in the 2nd half.

Northcoast Sports
4.5* Playoffs Game of the Year >> Patriots -3
3.5* Rams/Bears Over 48.5
Marquee
Patriots/Texans Under 41
Rams -4

Pickswise Sports
NFL
3* Texans +3.5
3* Under 41
5* Best Bet Rams -3.5
2* Under 48.5

Alan Scozzari
Game of My Career
France Ligue 1 Nantes 0 +110

Chris King NFL
4* Bears +4
4* Over 48.5

Kevin Vallego NFL
5* Under 41
4* Patriots -3

NFL divisional playoff betting trends​

Sunday

Texans at Patriots (-3, 41): The teams met last season, when Houston won and covered at Gillette Stadium by a 41-21 count. The Texans have won and covered their past five games as underdogs this season. Houston has won 13 of 15 games while going 10-5 ATS since its 0-3 start. The Texans are 0-2 straight up and 1-1 ATS in the divisional round the past two seasons. Houston has a 12-6 under record this season. The Patriots are 14-1 straight up and 12-3 ATS since their 1-2 start. They were on a 5-0 over run before going under in last week’s 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Edge: Slight to under and Patriots.

Rams (-4, 48) at Bears: The last meeting between these teams was Sept. 29, 2024, at Soldier Field, when the Bears (-3) won and covered by a 24-18 score. The Rams had covered three straight playoff games before falling short as 10½-point favorites in last week’s 34-31 win over the Carolina Panthers. Los Angeles is on a 9-4 ATS run overall but is 4-4 ATS in its past eight road games. The Rams are on a 7-0 over run. The Bears are on a 7-2 spread surge as underdogs, and they have won six of their past seven home games while going 5-2 ATS. Chicago is on a 6-2 under run at home. Edge: Bears and slight to over.

PATRIOTS (-3) over Texans​

“It’s hard to find value with sharp playoff lines, but New England shows value in my model. They get the benefit of home cooking and field the possible MVP in quarterback Drake Maye,” said pro bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “Experienced coaching will be a benefit versus the very capable Texans, who are faced with key injuries, not to mention some seriously poor play by quarterback C.J. Stroud last week.

“I also like a money line parlay of Seattle and New England for +105.”

Texans (+3½) over PATRIOTS​
“I bet Houston +3½ and still like it at +3 even,” said pro bettor Randy McKay (@RR39), who correctly called the Texans’ win and cover over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. “The Texans defense reminds me of the 2001 Baltimore Ravens. Hopefully quarterback C.J. Stroud doesn’t mess it up like he did versus the Steelers (with three turnovers).

“I believe their offensive line is better than the Patriots’ and will have the offensive success that the Los Angeles Chargers didn’t (in last week’s 16-3 wild-card loss). New England is still a young team, and Houston’s experience will win out.”

ATS.bet
NFL Playoffs Sunday 1/18/26
4Units: New England Patriots -3 (-120)

Scott Pritchard

Texans (13-5) at Patriots (15-3)​

Time: Noon Sunday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: Patriots -3, 41

Analysis: The lopsided matchup that should decide this game is the Patriots’ top-four scoring defense against the Texans’ below-average offense in yards gained. To make matters worse for Houston, it’s expected to be without No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins (concussion). If Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has a comparable number of interceptions and fumbles (five) as he did in last week’s win in Pittsburgh, the pressure will be too much to bear even for Houston’s top-rated defense as it attempts to contain New England’s top-four passing offense and No. 5 scoring offense. This is the Texans’ third straight year in the divisional round of the playoffs, and it should also be their third straight loss, unless Patriots’ second-year quarterback Drake Maye’s playoff inexperience results in an uncharacteristic meltdown.

Pick: Patriots 27, Texans 17

————————————————————————————-
Rams (13-5) at Bears (12-6)​

Time: 3:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC
Line/total: Rams -4, 48

Analysis: Expect painfully cold single-digit temperatures with the wind chill for this game. Snow in the forecast might be the only thing that can help a bottom-10 Bears defense slow down the NFL’s No. 1 passing and scoring offense. This is exactly the kind of defense Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford delights in facing as he airs it out to wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua broke the NFL record for fastest to 250 career receptions and led the league with 129 catches this season. Adams, not to be outdone, led the NFL with in receiving touchdown (14) and red zone touchdowns (12). The Rams’ top-10 scoring defense should provide just enough resistance to a talented Bears offense, which ranks third in rushing, to give Los Angeles an insurmountable lead.

Pick: Rams 34, Bears 17

Pamela Maldonado,
ESPN: Patriots

Marco
4% Texans

Sleepy J
3 * NE PATS -3.0

Wayne Root
Reserve – Houston +3
Reserve – LA Rams -3’

Gianni the Greek

5% [NFL] (387) Houston Texans at (388) New England Patriots Time: 3:00 PM EST Houston Texans +3.5 (-115)
4% [NFL] (387) Houston Texans at (388) New England Patriots Time: 3:00 PM EST Over 40.5
3% [NFL] PROP PICKS Houston Texans at Patriots: Woody Marks Longest Rush Under 12.5 (-140

4% [NFL] Rams at (394) Chicago Bears: Total Under 49.0
4% [NFL] Los Angeles Rams -3.0
3% [NFL] PROP PICKS Rams – Bears Kyren Williams Rushing Yards Over 59.5 (-11

Bruce Marshall
NFL
Chicago Bears +4 (-110)
Rams/Bears Over 48′ (-110)
New England Patriots -3 (-113)

Ricky tran
Goy Sacramento kings ml

William Burns
Detroit red wings

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