Weekly European Soccer Betting Analysis
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
Two teams that had high hopes coming into the season will look to rebound from inauspicious starts as Leicester City hosts Liverpool in English Premier League action.
The busy and exciting world of European soccer can sometimes be difficult to navigate for bettors. Monty Andrews takes a look at some of the most important news stories, odds, key injuries, and betting trends to help with your footy wagers.
Fixture of the week: Leicester City v. Liverpool
Two teams that had high hopes coming into the season will look to rebound from inauspicious starts as Leicester City hosts Liverpool in English Premier League action. Leicester City were focused on erasing the memory of last year's struggles, but the 2015 league champions are struggling with just four points from their first five matches and are a +300 longshot this weekend, according to Bet365. Liverpool (-113) have fared considerably better with eight points through five league games, but have surrendered as many goals as they have scored and have earned just one point in their previous two matches.
Ronaldo's Real Rebound?
So much for the triumphant return of Cristiano Ronaldo. One of soccer's biggest stars made his season debut Wednesday for Real Madrid, but all that did was provide him a front-row seat for his side's stunning 1-0 defeat at the hands of Real Betis. Now sitting seven points back of Barcelona atop the league table, Ronaldo and Real Madrid (-600) look to atone for that humbling defeat as they visit Alaves on Saturday. The hosts (+1,400) aren't being given much of a chance in this one, and with good reason; the relegation candidate has yet to register a goal in five league matches while surrendering eight over that span.
Dortmund's Donut Streak on the Line
Borussia Dortmund isn't just dominating Bundesliga play - it's making opposing offenses look foolish in the process. Dortmund is a -250 favorite on Bet365 as it puts its point and shutout streaks on the line Sunday against visiting Borussia Monchengladbach (+600). The host side has earned 13 of a possible 15 points to open league play, and has posted a clean sheet in every match. Bettors are getting +175 on Dortmund extending that goalless run against Monchengladbach, which is coming off an impressive 2-0 triumph over Stuttgart on Tuesday and has scored four times in its past two league games.
Torino's Tough Task
It's crowded at the top of the Serie A table, with just four points separating the top five teams as of Thursday. Fifth-place Torino (+600) would love nothing more than to gain ground on the field, but that will be a difficult undertaking as they tangle with league co-leader. Juventus (-275). The host side has five wins in as many matches to start the season, and its plus-14 goal differential ranks behind only fellow unbeaten Napoli. Torino has also gone unbeaten through its first five games on three wins and two draws, and is coming off a wild 3-2 triumph over host Udinese earlier this week.
League News
Goalkeeper Tim Krul has officially signed on with Brighton & Hove Albion, putting an end to his 12-year run with Newcastle. The two teams meet this weekend at Falmer Stadium in Sussex, with Brighton (+162) listed as a slight fave; Krul is not expected to start.
Real Madrid star Karim Benzema has reportedly agreed to an extension that would keep him with the club until 2021. Benzema will look to help get Real Madrid back on track this weekend after Real Betis snapped their consecutive scoring streak at 73 games.
RB Leipzig will be without midfielder Naby Keita for three games after he was issued a ban for kicking an opposing player in the face last weekend. Leipzig is still a -150 fave on Bet365 at home against Eintracht Frankfurt (+425) despite Keita's absence.
Lazio manager Simone Inzaghi blamed a spate of injuries for Wednesday's 4-1 loss to Napoli, and went on to add that the long infirm list means "we'll have trouble going forward, too." That said, Lazio is installed as a -175 road fave Sunday at Verona (+475).
Key Injuries
Arsenal winger Danny Walbeck is expected to miss the next four matches as he recovers from a groin injury. Walbeck played last weekend but will be out through the international break. Arsenal is a -334 favorite or Monday's tilt with West Brom (+700).
Real Madrid will likely be without left-back Theo Hernandez this weekend after the 19-year-old suffered a partial dislocation of his right shoulder. Hernandez starred in a 3-1 win over Real Sociedad last weekend before leaving late with the injury.
Bayern Munich fans will need to wait a little longer to see goalkeeper Manuel Neuer in action; he underwent foot surgery earlier this week and isn't expected to be back until January. Bayern is -600 on Bet365 for Friday's showdown with Wolfsburg (+1,400).
One of AC Milan's key offseason signings will be on the shelf until the middle of March. Fullback Andrea Conti suffered a torn ACL in his left knee, dealing a significant blow to an AC Milan side that opened the Serie A season with four wins and a draw
Betting Trends
It's crisis time in Crystal Palace, with the Selhurst-based club having gone without a goal in its last six league matches. Manchester City is listed on Bet365 at -138 to be the only team to score in Saturday's game at Old Trafford.
It won't make you rich, but if you like Real Madrid to respond to its shutout loss to Real Betis with fire and brimstone, there's a bet for that. Real have played over the 2.5-goal game total in 30 of their last 35 games, and are -275 to do that this weekend.
Home fans must love seeing Freiburg come to town; the winless side has surrendered four or more goals in each of its last three road games. Bettors will get a nice +550 payout for rolling with Werder Bremen over 3.5 goals this weekend.
Consider Napoli the anti-Freiburg; they've scored at least three goals in nine consecutive league games. Napoli is -125 to extend that streak this weekend against host SPAL, which has allowed just eight goals through five matches.
Saturday's Best Bets
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
English Premier League
Even though it’s early in the season, the oddsmakers have adjusted their future odds and it appears to be a three-horse race between Manchester City (1/1), Manchester United (5/2) and defending champion Chelsea (5/1).
VegasInsider.com soccer expert Toby Maxtone-Smith offered his thoughts on what’s transpired through the first five weeks in the EPL. He said, “At the moment the Manchester clubs are looking head and shoulders above the rest, but I'll wait until they play some harder matches. United have not really been tested yet, while City only beat Liverpool 5-0 because Liverpool had a man sent off early. Given Chelsea got 93 points last year, it can't be written off.”
“Really the bottom 14 of the Premier League look especially weak this year - the big six will really rack up the points. A few teams - Palace, Brighton - are taking overly cautious approaches.”
All three of the aforementioned clubs are laying healthy prices this weekend and they all have key Champions League matchups on deck next week.
Along with being tied for first place with 13 points, both United and City have posted identical goals forward (16) and goals against (2) this season. I don’t think anybody is surprised that the Citizens have been scoring but it is a little startling what the addition of Belgian international Romelu Lukaku (5 goals) has done for the Red Devils. To put things in perspective, United only managed to net 54 goals last season.
Despite all those stats, I believe United will be in for a dogfight this Saturday (10:00 a.m. ET) when it heads to Southampton. The oddsmakers have put out a total of 2½ and the Saints have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 at St. Mary’s Stadium this season. The last three meetings between this pair have gone ‘under’ and all of those games featured clean sheets.
Best Bet: Under 2½ Manchester United-Southampton (-125)
The early game in Matchday 6 takes place on Saturday morning at 7:45 a.m. ET between West Ham United and Tottenham. The Spurs are healthy road favorites (-170) and a couple books have posted totals of 3 on this game, which makes me lean to the low side. Tottenham offense hasn’t been as sharp so far but the defense has been very solid, especially on the road (no goals). The Hammers have won three of the past four home league games versus Tottenham and they notched clean sheets (1-0, 1-0, 2-0) in the wins. I see another low-scoring affair here.
Best Bet: Under 3 Tottenham-West Ham United (-135)
German Bundesliga
Five weeks of action in the books and Borussia Dortmund (4-1-0) and Bayern Munich (4-0-1) remain the top pair. What’s been very impressive is that Dortmund hasn’t allowed a goal so far and most pundits pointed at its defense as the glaring weakness. The two clubs will both be in huge Champions League matches next week (see below) and the last time they played in this event, they both got caught looking ahead. Dortmund fought to a scoreless draw at Freiburg while Bayern dropped a 2-0 decision at Hoffenheim.
Even though the clubs just played midweek games, they’re both in solid form and I would expect wins in Matchday 6 but the prices are ridiculous. With that being said, I’m going to lean to the ‘over’ in Dortmund-Monchengladbach on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET). These teams have combined for four-plus goals in each of their last four meetings and Dortmund has produced some lopsided results (5-0, 3-0) in its last two wins. Plus, M. Gladbach has scored two goals in both of its two away games in league play this season.
Best Bet: Over 3½ Dortmund- Monchengladbach (+100)
France Ligue 1
Outside of the top two powers in Paris Saint-Germain and AS Monaco, the one trend you’ll notice with this league is that teams have trouble scoring consistently. That production has led to an inordinate amount of ‘under’ winners through the first six matches and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon especially with the oddsmakers offering totals of 2½ goals or more on most matches.
With that being said, I would lean to Troyes visits FC Metz on Saturday (2:00 p.m. ET) and the pair have combined for seven goals this season. Metz has allowed 12 goals this season but five of them came against PSG. These teams haven’t met in a few years but the last two results ended 1-0 I would expect a similar score in this contest.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Troyes-FC Metz (-125)
Spanish La Liga
While Barcelona (5-0) has looked sharp in league play, Real Madrid (2-2-1) has looked very poor and no wins in three home games (0-2-1) has led to a chorus of boos.
Los Blancos (-490) are laying a heavy price on Saturday morning (10:15 a.m. ET) at Deportivo Alaves (+1528) and knowing they’ve gone 2-0 on the road, another win seems likely. Instead of laying the healthy price, I would lay the goals knowing Alaves hasn’t scored in five league games.
Best Bet: Real Madrid –2 (-220)
Alternate Chalk Option: Two-Team Parlay Real Madrid (-490) with Barcelona (-380). Based on where you shop, the multiplier will get you back 1/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $50). Barca plays at 2:45 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Champions League
Group Play action continues next Tuesday and it will be interesting to see if Borussia Dortmund can rebound at home against the tournament favorite Real Madrid. On Wednesday, Bayern Munich visiting Paris Saint-Germain will be must-see plus Chelsea facing Atletico Madrid on the road is a nice test for both clubs.
Favorites had a strong showing in Matchday 1 and we saw plenty of goals, which helped the ‘over’ produce a 9-5-2 mark.