CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL
10* JAMES MADISON over *Seton Hall...CAA scouts have alerted us to positive developments at JMU, still flying under radar despite positive start to campaign. Unselfish Dukes impressing with their precision on offensive end, helped by arrival of Saint Joe’s transfer G Jalloh, who has helped JMU hit eye-opening 52% from floor thru first 7 games. Big East observers claim Pirates not yet complete team, lacking presence in paint and still inconsistent from perimeter (just 32% treys).
JAMES MADISON 69 - *Seton Hall 70 RATING-10
10* WESTERN KENTUCKY over *Southern Illinois...”Take” with deep, TO-producing WKU (21 takeaways pg) eager to enhance NCAA resume prior to Sun Belt play. Hilltopppers primed for “hump” road win following narrow losses vs. classy Gonzaga & Tennessee on neutral sites. WKU possesses team speed & shooting prowess (40% treys) to often burn SIU in transition before Salukis set up defensively, while 6-5 sr. G Lee (22 ppg) can create anytime, anywhere. SIU just 3-7-2 vs. spread last 12 in Carbondale.
10* WESTERN KENTUCKY 69 - *S. Illinois 65 RATING - 10
ALABAMA over Missouri State (at Las Vegas)...Now that young Bama Gs are learning their roles and compensating for loss of star PG Steele, must buck shaky-shooting MSU (just 31% from arc) still searching to replace marksmenship provided by LY’s 3 top scorers. Tide’s powerful 6-8, 265 sr. C Hendrix (19 ppg, 12 rpg, 2.4 bpg) will surely get Bears over-zealous 6-8 C Richard in early foul trouble, while springy 6-6 F Gee (14 ppg, 7 rpg) matches up well with MSU’s top-scoring 6-5 F Mitchell.
ALABAMA 76 - Mssouri State 65 RATING - 10
ALABAMA over Missouri State (at Las Vegas)...Now that young Bama Gs are learning their roles and compensating for loss of star PG Steele, must buck shaky-shooting MSU (just 31% from arc) still searching to replace marksmenship provided by LY’s 3 top scorers. Tide’s powerful 6-8, 265 sr. C Hendrix (19 ppg, 12 rpg, 2.4 bpg) will surely get Bears over-zealous 6-8 C Richard in early foul trouble, while springy 6-6 F Gee (14 ppg, 7 rpg) matches up well with MSU’s top-scoring 6-5 F Mitchell.
ALABAMA 76 - Mssouri State 65 RATING - 10
The Platinum Sheet 'Best Bets'
PapaJohns.com Bowl - Legion Field - Birmingham, AL
Saturday, December 22nd - 1:00 PM - (309)
SOUTHERN MISS vs. (310) CINCINNATI
All things being equal Cincinnati, deserved a better bowl then this one, but this will still be third postseason trip in four years. Coach Brian Kelly is a no-nonsense guy, thus rest assured he will have his 11th ranked defense in points allowed (18.6) in the nation ready. This has been best season in the Queen City since 1953 when they last won nine games. Southern Mississippi is headed in different direction after
telling 17-year coach Jeff Bower his services would no longer be required after 14 winning seasons. This usually causes upheaval, as the outgoing seniors feel bad for departed coach and the players coming back are apprehensive about what change means to them. For years Brett Favre’s alma mater was a defensive stalwart, now they are just above average a 48th overall, with a pedestrian offense that ranks
60th in the country. Cincy averages 36.7 PPG and is 7-0 ATS when they score 28 or more points this season. Southern Miss is a double digit underdog and is 0-6 ATS against the number as a dog with uncertainty.
Play: Cincinnati -11
New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM
Saturday, December 22nd - 4:30 PM - (311) NEVADA at (312) NEW MEXICO
The only greater reward than earning an opportunity to play once again in late December is the right to do so on the soil that serves as your homestead. Such is the case for the Lobos, awaiting the arrival of a less-than-impressive Nevada team that appears too ripe for the taking. New Mexico was 5-1 SU in Albuquerque this season, and while the ATS (2-3) suggests reason for concern, it is Nevada’s failure to impress that should drive your ticket towards the home favorite. The Wolf Pack, led by freshman QB Colin Kaepernick, found just two covers on the road this season, one as 25.5-point dogs at Boise state, the other as 10.5-point dogs at Northwestern. Nevada has yet to earn a victory against a team of worth this season (combined record of teams beaten: 20-52, including 6-5 Nicholls State, a product of the FCS, better known as Division IAA), and there is little reason to believe they start now. The Lobos let the faithful alum down last season with a 12-20 loss against San Jose State, and now the time has come to right the wrongs of the past and give reason to celebrate.
Play: New Mexico –
Las Vegas Bowl - Sam Boyd Stadium - Las Vegas, NV
Saturday, December 22nd - 8:00 PM - (313) UCLA vs. (314) BYU
I’ve come to realize that the month spent between the end of the regular season and a team’s bowl game can play tricks on handicappers. Some teams fififind the confidence they lacked their last few games, while others seemingly spend more time vacationing than tuning up. In this game, BYU is a fairly sizeable favorite against a team it lost to by double-digits early in the season. In fact, the Cougars were an 8-1/2 point underdog back in September in Los Angeles. I ask myself, has enough changed where there should be a 14-point line swing in this contest on a neutral field. In late November, I would have said yes. With a month to recoup for the injury savaged Bruins, I’ll say no. UCLA was 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, the Pac 10 is stellar as a whole as bowl underdogs, and UCLA’s L44 games vs. top level teams (>75% Win Pct) has netted a score UCLA 31.2, Opponent 30.5. This one could go either way. I’ll take the points.
Play: UCLA +5
Nick Bogdanovich
Best Bet:
314 BYU -6.5
Jorge Gonzalez
314 BYU -6.5
Paul Sonner
Nevada +2.5
Norm Hitzges
Single Plays
Dallas -10.5 vs Carolina
Dallas/Carolina Under
Reply With Quote
Gamblers World..(Started Dec 3rd).won again last night in hockey
8-3 month of December
3-1..NBA
4-0..NHL
1-0 CBB
0-2..NFL (0-1 sides..0-1 totals)
TIP OF THE DAY
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: 8:00PM, Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA Bruins vs. BYU Cougars
Prediction: BYU Cougars
Current Line: -6½
Over/Under: 47
Reason: UCLA's poor play cost coach Karl Dorrell his job and now they will
try to salvage the season with a win in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Bruins face
the BYU Cougars December 22 at Sam Boyd Stadium. The Cougars won nine
straight to claim the Mountain West championship and are not intimidated by
playing a major Pac 10 school.
Oddsmakers currently have the Cougars listed as 6½-point favorites versus
the Bruins, while the game's total is sitting at 47.
UCLA had four turnovers last time out in a 24-7 loss at USC, falling as
18.5-point road underdogs. The 31 points scored were UNDER the posted total
of 46.
Patrick Cowan went 13-for-24 for 156 yards, one touchdown and an
interception, and Brandon Breazell caught four passes for 53 yards for the
Bruins.
Harvey Unga ran for four touchdowns in leading BYU to a 48-27 win over San
Diego State last time out. BYU covered the 16.5-point spread, while the
combined 75 points sailed OVER the posted total of 58.
Unga carried the ball 23 times for 160 yards for BYU, and Max Hall
completed 19-of-26 passes for 227 yards and three touchdowns.
Larry Ness' 20* Non-Conference GOY (6-0 the L2 Saturdays with CBB reports!)
My 20* is on Ohio State at 4:00 ET. The Gators may be 11-1 but today's trip to Columbus is the team's first time out of the state. In their only real test so far, an 11/23 home date with Fla St, the Gators shot just 38.9 percent (4-of-23 on threes) and lost 65-51 to a team which has lost to South Fla and Cleve St. Billy Donovan's latest group is a far cry from his two-time defending national champs. Up front, the 6-10 Speights (13.5-7.4) and the 6-7 Werner (7.7-7.5) were around last year, while junior guard Hodge (9.8) played a supporting role on both title teams. However, it's five freshman who make up Florida's future, 6-6 swingman Calathes (15.8-4.7-5.5) and guard Lucas (9.4), who both start. Three freshman forwards are getting plenty of opportunities as well, the 6-9 Parsons (10.6), the 6-8 Allen (6.8) and the 6-8 Tyus (6.3). Ohio St relies big-time on 7-0 freshman center Koufus (15.8-6.3) but two seniors and a soph give Thad Matta more leadership and experience than Donovan owns on the opposite side of the court. Guard Butler (13.5-5.1) and the 6-8 Hunter (9.5-6.54) are the two seniors, while swingman Lighty (10.0-4.4) is off to a solid start in his second year. Two 6-6 freshman, Diebler (6.9) and Turner (5.6), are both expected to be stars. While Florida has yet to be tested TY, OSU has played both Syracuse (win) and A&M (loss) in MSG, lost to No. 1 North Carolina at home plus lost at then-No. 16 Butler. OSU can match Florida's defense, has played a much tougher schedule and has DOUBLE REVENGE from last year (including a title-game loss). Non-Conference GOY 20* Ohio St.
LeRoy's Contest:
Nick Bogdanovich
342 Boise St. -10.5
336 Seahawks -10
316 Bengals +3
328 Jaguars -13
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
Best Bet:
314 BYU -6.5
Jorge Gonzalez
318 Bears +8.5
316 Bengals +3
326 Bills +3
314 BYU -6.5
330 Saints -3
319 Texans +7
Best Bet:
324 Patriots -21.5
Doc
314 BYU -6.5
316 Bengals +3
331 Redskins +6.5
328 Jaguars -13
329 Eagles +3
340 49ers +6
Best Bet:
322 Lions OV43
Paul Sonner
311 Nevada +2.5
341 E. Car +10.5
319 Texans +7
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
331 Redskins UN41
Best Bet:
324 Patriots OV45
Arthur Ralph:
Super Pick Saturday: Stanford (10-3 last 13, 3 game losing streak)
Saturday : Double UCLA FB
Shockers Georgetown College Hoop early game, Dallas NFL, New Mexico College FB
Black Magic Sports for December 22nd
NCAA Football:
5 Unit Las Vegas Bowl BEST BET on UCLA +6
The UCLA Bruins handed BYU one of their two losses this season back in September in a 27-17 triumph. It just goes to show how the Pac-10 conference is much more superior than the Mountain West. UCLA has the more talented team and this line is an absolute joke Saturday. BYU is good within their conference, but they difference between the talent in these conferences will come pouring out in the Las Vegas Bowl. UCLA is 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. UCLA is 11-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bruins put up a great fight against the USC Trojans to end the year but came up short. Players will be more hungry to finish off the season with a bang. BYU already won the Mountain West crown and a loss wouldn't hamper what they have already done this season. Cash in with UCLA as the underdog.
3 Unit Papa Johns.com Bowl BEST BET on Cincinnati -10.5
The Golden Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Cincinnati will show the linesmakers exactly why they listed Southern Miss as a double-digit underdog Saturday. The Bearcats win this one by at least 20 points. The Bearcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. The Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Cash in with Cincinnati as the favorite.
NFL:
4 Unit Black Magic Cowboys/Panthers Total on UNDER 43
This game won't finish anywhere near the posted 43 points Saturday. Carolina cannot score points with their 4 th string quarterback at the helm. The Panthers could only muster up 13 points last week in a career game for Matt Moore. They did hold the Seahawks to just 10 points to prove that their defensive effort is still there. Carolina has had one of the best defenses in the league for years now. Dallas will put up more than the 6 points they threw up against Philadelphia last weekend, but it won't be enough to push this game over the number. Dallas is 35-15 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Carolina is 11-3 UNDER i n home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with the UNDER 43 points.
NCAA Basketball:
3 Unit Sharp Play on Ohio State -6
Home court is huge in college hoops and it gives the Buckeyes the edge here. Ohio State is 15-6 ATS versus excellent teams shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons. The Buckeyes are also 10-1 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons and 17-6 ATS after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls since 1997. This is the Gators' first true road test of the year and they'll fail miserably. Ohio State will get some revenge for last year's National Title defeat. Lay the points.
BIG AL's PAPA JOHNS BOWL OUT OF 26-6, 17-3 SYSTEMS
BIG AL's 20-3 ATS NEW MEXICO/NEVADA WINNER.
BIG AL
(3*)Southern Mississippi
(3*)New Mexico
ATS LOCK CLUB
310 4-Cinncy -10 1/2
312 3-N Mexico -2 1/2
Hoops
780 7-Mich St. -3 1/2
801 6-Mizz -2 1/2
799 5-Valpo +13
766 5-Providence -3 1/2
794 4-Wichita St. -2 1/2
ATS FINANCIAL
307 3-Dallas -10
Hoops
792 4-Bradley -5
756 4-Arizona -11
788 3-Minnesota -11 1/2
Glen Mcgrew comp LSU
Bob Donahue comp texas a&m
Jim Feist free play utah-miami over
Dave Cokin bowl comp nevada
Scott Spreitzer comp georgetown
Robert Ferringo
6-Unit Play. Take #760 Ohio State (-5) over Florida (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 22)
Note: I will update this in the morning. I like this play up to -6.0, meaning it is a play at 5.0, 5.5, or 6.0. Anything over that you have to bump it down one or two Units, at your discretion. At -6.5 or above I wouldn't play it for more than four Units.
Wow. I like this one a LOT. Do you know the two teams with the highest RPI’s that Florida has beaten this year? North Dakota State (121) and Georgia Southern (70). They won those games, at home, by 10 and 3 points, respectively. The only RPI Top-100 team they’ve faced this year is Florida State and the Seminoles beat the Gators by 14 points in Gainesville. This is also Florida’s first true road game and their first game outside of the state of Florida. Oh, and then there’s that little thing about revenge for the national championship game (in basketball and in football). The Gators are 2-5 ATS against the Big 10 and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. This one should be a bloodbath.
4.5-Unit Play. Take #729 Miami, OH (+19.5) over Kansas (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 22)
Over their last four-plus years – that’s a span of 131 games – do you know how many times that Miami, OH has been beaten by 20 or more points? Twice. In fact, since 1997 – that’s around 300 games – the Redhawks have been beaten by 15 or more points just 25 times. That’s 8.3 percent. In those 300 games they’ve lost by 20 or more points just eight times. That’s just 2.7 percent. I will play a 97.3-percent trend over 300 trials. The Redhawks have already won in Louisville and in Champagne. They’ve played just three of their 10 games against teams outside of the RPI top 85. They can hang.
2-Unit Play. Take #719 Georgetown (+5) over Memphis (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 22)
You want to give Georgetown five points? Let’s put it this way: would you be shocked if the Hoyas won this game? I wouldn’t. And as we saw with Pitt earlier in the week, this is simply too much of a cushion in a game that a dominant Big East team could win outright. I could talk matchups on this one all day, but trust me, this is the right side in a game that I do not see the Tigers running away with by double-digits. G-Town is 11-3-1 ATS on the road, 21-7-1 as a road dog of 1.0 to 6.5 points, and 10-2 ATS on the road against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 2-5 ATS as a favorite and 2-6 ATS in nonconference games.
Michael Cannon
40 Dime
BYU
Lay the points with Byu tonight over Ucla in the Las Vegas Bowl.
The Cougars should be excited about getting a second crack at a beat-up Ucla team that they dominated earlier in the season, but lost to on the scoreboard.
Byu had 199 more total yards of offense and eight more first downs but ended up losing 27-17 earlier in the year. The Bruins got all the bounces in that game, including an interception return for a touchdown that was a huge momentum swing.
Now the Bruins have to deal not only with several injuries to the skill positions on offense and defense, including quarterbacks Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan, but a coaching change as Karl Dorrell was let go after the loss to Usc at the end of the regular season.
Defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker will serve as the interim coach for the Bruins, but it could wind up being a flat spot for the team as the names of other candidates gets bandied about.
Byu is on positive spread runs of 22-10 in its last 33 overall, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 17-6-1 as a favorite.
Lay the points as Byu gets its revenge with a win and cover.
20 Dime
CINCINNATI
Lay the points with Cincinnati over Southern Miss in the Papa John’s Bowl.
Southern Miss is being coached by Jeff Bower and a lame-duck staff, as they await the installation of Larry Fedora’s system in the spring. It could lead to a major distraction as Bower could wind up coaching against these very players as his name is being mentioned as a candidate for a few open jobs.
Cincinnati will treat this game as a genuine reward, as they won nine games for the first time since 1953, setting school records for points, touchdowns and passing touchdowns.
The Bearcats also have a ball-hawking defense (39 takeaways) that could help to stretch the lead as the game goes on and Southern Miss is forced to open it up once they fall behind.
Southern Miss is 0-7 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in its last seven following a SU win.
Cincinnati went 5-1 ATS on the highway this year, 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and 7-1 ATS following a SU win.
Cincinnati brings the higher emotion and intensity into this matchup and I expect them to grab the win and cover.
Take the Bearcats minus the points.
10 Dime
CLEVELAND STATE
Take Cleveland State as the small home chalk over Central Michigan.
Cleveland State went into Kalamazoo last year off an 8-day break and forced two overtimes before losing. If they had shot better than 50 percent from the free-throw line, they may have walked out of there with the win.
Central Michigan still absorbs a lot of fouls per game and Cleveland State does manage to shoot around 71 percent from the charity stripe, so if things play out like they did last year the outcome should favor the Vikings.
Cleveland State has raised its scoring average by 10 points per game from last year and they’ve been home since December 5. This is Central Michigan’s third straight road trip within a week, so fatigue could be a factor.
Take Cleveland State as the small home chalk as they grab the win and cover.
5 Dime
RHODE ISLAND
Take Rhode Island as the big home chalk over Hofstra.
It’s no secret Hofstra is a one-man show. Antoine Agudio is the nation’s leading scorer, but they don’t have anyone else who can compliment him on the offensive end.
Rhode Island guard Parfait Bitee is one of the best one-on-one defenders in the A-10 and will make Agudio work for everything he gets.
Rhode Island coach Jim Baron has a balanced and experienced team that should stretch the lead as the game goes on.
Take Rhode Island as the big home chalk as they grab the win and cover over Hofstra.
PANTHERS
Take the points with the Panthers tonight when they host the Cowboys.
Dallas is coming off a 10-6 home loss to the Eagles, in which Tony Romo had his worst game as a pro.
Romo was banged-up in that loss and I don’t know how effective he’ll be against a Panthers defense that has the potential to harass him tonight.
Carolina has followed up a seven-game SUATS home losing slide with back-to-back wins and covers, while Dallas has followed up a 5-1 ATS run with consecutive non-covers, both as a double-digit chalk.
The Panthers still have an outside shot at the playoffs, so they will play with desperation tonight.
The Cowboys are 2-4 ATS when laying double digits this season, including 0-2 ATS on the road.
Take the points with the Panthers as they keep it within the number at home.
IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: NC Wilmington @ East Carolina Pirates
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: East Carolina Pirates -1
3-0 Yesterday.#1 NBA Handicapper in America Basketball 2007: 63-34 (65%) 36-13 NBA Run (73%) & NBA 2007: 49-25 (66%). Total of 6 Plays today. 2 College Football Released earlier this week.
This is strictly a power ranking play similar to Rider outright yesterday. Don't get me wrong, NC Wilmington is a very good team, but I do question the fact that they are on the road and I have them as a top 175 team facing a top 140 team in East Carolina. Even that is not enough for me to ride the Pirates typically, but this team does come off a very good win against NC State at home which is very difficult to do and even were competitive against Clemson at certain points at home losing by 15 points. This t eam went 1-1 against 2 solid ACC teams of late and now hosts NC Wilmington - a team that beat them and covered the 8 point spread at home last year. This is a dangerous spot for NC Wilmington who comes off a road lost to Coastal Carolina who I have as one of the 10 worst teams in the nation and now face a East Carolina team that is one of he the top 140. Folks, Coastal Carolina is lousy and it is tough to ignore that NC Wilmington lost to them - a road game or not. East Carolina could be in for a let down here, but I'll take my chances with my power ranking of about 40 spots in benefit, the revenge factor and East Carolina is on a solid up tick after struggling early while I have NC Wilmington on a down turn in power ranking. The home team is 4-1-1 in the last 6 contests between these 2 squads
Game: Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos @ North Carolina Tar Heels
AFTERNOON COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAY OF THE DAY!
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos +22.5
3-0 Yesterday.#1 NBA Handicapper in America Basketball 2007: 63-34 (65%) 36-13 NBA Run (73%) & NBA 2007: 49-25 (66%). Total of 6 Plays today. 2 College Football Released earlier this week. This is a gutsy play but I love it. If you noticed, UNC had its problems with Nicholls State yesterday and I am fond of the Gauchos as don't forget, I have them as a top 90 team and they have played competitive ball against some very good teams. I have UNC as a top 20 power ranking team despite their #1 ranking in the nation simply because of the formulas that I use. UCSB is top 90 for several reasons including the fact that this team lost to Stanford by 19 earlier this season and I have Stanford as a top 15 team - better than UNC. It gets a bit better - UCSB has been on a strong up tick the last week as they beat Ball State by 27 on the road which is tough to do considering that they are a top 250 team and they were only supposed to beat them by 8-10 points on the road. Plus, this team beat UNLV at home who is a top 75 team and beat a top 150 Montana team by 15 at home. I have UCSB falling short by 15 this afternoon
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat
Pick: 3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Under 203
Both of these teams are on a under tick according to my numbers and I think they both find it tough to top 100 points tonight. The Utah Jazz come off holding the Magic who have a potent offense to 94 points. In fact, even the game against the Phoenix Suns did not total 203 so this is an opportunity to take an under with a Miami team that although has played over in back to back games, it was primarily due to overtime. The last time these 2 teams met, 212 points were scored - however, that was because Miami was an active underdog and I don't see that necessarily today. At worst case, I see this game as a 98-96 type of ballgame as I have this game in the mid 190's. This will be a tight cover, but I do feel that it will fall under. The under is 5-1 for th e Jazz following a ATS win.
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Charlotte Bobcats @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick:
3 units TOTAL: Under 189.5
Very simple analysis here. I've been reporting consistently that the Bobcats when playing back to back ballgames have been hitting the under consistently. When there was a hit taken in the off shore books for the under, this is the principle they are following as well as the legs of this ballclub go under due to their lack of depth. Now, with Nazr in the Charlotte lineup, this helps, but Milwaukee has played solid defense as well of late. Charlotte played an over last night against the Knicks but have not played back to back overs in quite some time. Milwaukee and Sac simply totaled 191 and I look for a team like Charlotte that focuses a bit more on defense will push this game under as well. The under is 6-0 when the Bobcats are underdogs and the under is 4-1 for the Bucks following a striaght up loss.