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NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Week 14

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shazman

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Tuesday 12/8/20 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NCAAB games

Posted : December 8, 2020 11:38 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57994

Member Moderator

Topic starter

NFL Odds Week 14: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Baker Mayfield and the Browns gave away almost all of a 38-7 lead against the Titans in Week 13, but held on for a 41-35 win. In Week 14, Cleveland opened as a 1-point home underdog to Baltimore.

NFL Week 13 won't wrap up until Tuesday night, but NFL Week 14 odds can't be stopped nor contained, with several games already seeing action. The bookend matchups are among the most noteworthy, with the New England Patriots meeting the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, and the Cleveland Browns hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 14 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 14 Odds

Patriots at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Los Angeles outgunned Arizona in Week 13, 38-28, while New England boatraced the L.A. Chargers 45-0 on the road. That made things a little more challenging for SuperBook oddsmakers.

"The Patriots destroyed the Chargers today, and we opened the Patriots a 5-point underdog vs. the Rams, which was a little lower than our look-ahead line," Murray said. "We took money on the Rams right away and bumped the line up to Rams -6. It should be a pretty-good-handle Thursday game. We will take money both ways."

There was no movement Sunday night on the total of 45.

Packers at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +8.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Green Bay had little trouble in a 30-16 home victory over Philadelphia, and Detroit scored two touchdowns inside the final three minutes to upend host Chicago 34-30. The SuperBook opened the Packers -8.5 and briefly went to -8 before returning to the opening number. The total was stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Titans at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7.5, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved
Tennessee laid a huge first-half egg Sunday against Cleveland, falling behind 38-7 at halftime, then nearly made it all up in a 41-35 Week 13 loss. Jacksonville was a 10-point underdog at Minnesota and forced overtime, but lost 27-24.

The Titans opened -7.5 at The SuperBook and dipped to -7 for a bit Sunday night, before returning to -7.5. The total was stable at 53.

Cowboys at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati took a 7-0 first-quarter lead at Miami, but that was it in a 19-7 loss. Dallas is playing the Week 13 waiting game, traveling to Baltimore for a Tuesday night contest. The SuperBook went ahead and posted Cowboys-Bengals, though, opening Dallas -3.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Cardinals at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York got one of the larger upsets of the season in Week 13, traveling to Seattle, fielding backup QB Colt McCoy and shocking the Seahawks 17-12. Arizona couldn't keep up with the L.A. Rams in a track-meet fourth quarter, losing 38-28. The Cardinals opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, with no line movement Sunday night.

Texans at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +3, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Both these squads fell short in Week 13, with Houston falling 26-20 to visiting Indianapolis and Chicago giving up two late touchdowns in a 34-30 home loss to Detroit. The SuperBook opened Houston -3 and moved to -2.5 within just a few minutes Sunday night. The total held at 46 Sunday night.

Broncos at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver made a respectable showing in the Week 13 Sunday nighter at Kansas City, losing 22-16. Meanwhile, Carolina is rested and ready, coming off a bye week that might allow for the return of star running back Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers opened -3.5 at The SuperBook, and the game came off the board once the Broncos kicked off against the Chiefs. The line will go back up Monday morning.

Vikings at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are coming off a bye week, while Minnesota is coming off back-to-back tight wins to stay in the NFC playoff picture. On Sunday, the Vikings escaped with a 27-24 overtime win laying 10.5 points against visiting Jacksonville.

"We opened the Bucs -6.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Vikings will be one of our bigger needs of the week, with the Bucs coming off a bye week and the Vikes looking so mediocre today."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 52.

Chiefs at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins +7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami didn't look particularly great as 10-point home chalk against Cincinnati, but notched a 19-7 victory. And Kansas City got much more than it expected as a 13-point home fave against Denver on Sunday night, holding on for a 22-16 victory.

"We opened Chiefs -7.5, and the game is off the board now with the Chiefs playing on Sunday Night Football," Murray said during the Denver-KC game. "The Dolphins will be one of our biggest needs of the week next Sunday. The Chiefs will be in every moneyline parlay and teaser."

Colts at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas nearly gave the New York Jets their first victory of the season, but the Raiders pulled out a 31-28 road win on a 46-yard Derek Carr-to-Henry Ruggs TD pass in the waning seconds Sunday. Meanwhile, Indianapolis held off Houston 26-20.

"We opened Raiders +3 and took some money on the 'dog, and moved them to +3 (-120)," Murray said. "Las Vegas was very, very fortunate to escape with a win today and will face a formidable Colts defense next week. I still think this will be one of the rare instances in which we are rooting for the favorite. This town loves betting on the Raiders."

Jets at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -14, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
New York's season of utter failure continued in Week 13, when the Jets (0-12 SU) allowed a 46-yard touchdown pass with five seconds remaining in a 31-28 home loss to Las Vegas. Seattle got stung Sunday, too, in a shocking 17-12 home loss as 11-point chalk against the New York Giants.

Still, SuperBook oddsmakers didn't hesitate to hang the Seahawks -14 against the Jets. Within about an hour, the line dropped to -13, then ticked up to -13.5 a few minutes later Sunday night. The total held firm at 47 Sunday night.

Falcons at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers +2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles suffered a 45-0 home drubbing at the hands of New England in Week 13, while Atlanta was dealt a 21-16 home loss by New Orleans. The SuperBook opened the Falcons -2.5, with a total of 49.5, and neither number moved Sunday night.

Saints at Eagles Odds
Opening line
Eagles +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans continues weathering the loss of Drew Brees, with backup Taysom Hill helping the Saints go 3-0 SU and ATS while stretching the team's overall streak to 5-0 SU and ATS. Now, there's a chance Brees could return this week from multiple cracked ribs.

The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5 against the Eagles, who in Week 13 fell at Green Bay 30-16 for their fourth consecutive loss (1-3 ATS). There was no line movement Sunday night.

Washington at 49ers Odds
Opening line
49ers -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Both these teams have Week 13 work to do, with San Francisco hosting Buffalo in the regularly scheduled Monday night game, and Washington traveling to Pittsburgh for a 5 p.m. ET Monday kickoff. The 49ers opened -4 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Steelers at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills +1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh and Buffalo also have unfinished Week 13 business. The undefeated Steelers host Washington in a 5 p.m. ET Monday kick, and the Bills meet the 49ers in a Monday night game moved to the Arizona Cardinals' home stadium due to COVID restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif.

"The Steelers are -1.5 for now, but both teams play Monday, so we may see an adjustment before this game," Murray said. "It sets up to be a big public play on the Steelers, and the house will likely need the Bills pretty big in this game."

Ravens at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cleveland was beating the daylights out of Tennessee at halftime Sunday, leading 38-7, but then had to hang on for a 41-35 victory. Meanwhile, Baltimore's Week 13 game isn't until Tuesday, when it hosts Dallas in a contest rescheduled due to the Ravens' COVID issues the past two weeks.

"We opened Ravens -1 and are still there. The Ravens play Tuesday night vs. Dallas, and if they lay another egg in that game, we may see Cleveland move to the favorite," Murray said. "The Browns are very quietly 9-3, and the public will be quick to abandon the Ravens if their offense keeps struggling."

Posted : December 8, 2020 11:39 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57994

Member Moderator

Topic starter

NFL Betting Tips for Week 14: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Atlanta is 4-3 SU and ATS since firing head coach Dan Quinn in mid-October, due in larger part to the Falcons becoming much tougher on the defensive side of the ball.

What kind of Christmas shopper are you: Someone who waits until the last minute, picking through the discount DVD bin at your local late-night pharmacy on December 24? Or do you like to plan out your holiday gift giving, buying up the best deals back in September?

When it comes to the best NFL betting strategy, both last-minute and early-bird shoppers can benefit. The Week 14 odds have been released and these are our top NFL betting tips for the point spreads and totals to bet now, and the best lines to bet later.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

As of Sunday evening, Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn is still employed. But after the Bolts were absolutely bombed by New England at home – losing 45-0 like some FCS cupcake visiting Alabama in September – the heat from his office chair can be seen from space.

Los Angeles has won just one game since November, with that lone victory coming against the New York Jets. And what’s worse is that the Chargers are 0-6 against the spread in that span. The Falcons, their Week 14 opponents, have won three of their last five with those two losses coming to rival New Orleans.

Atlanta knows all about the benefits of canning a crap coach and has been a different team since firing Dan Quinn back in mid-October. Since then, the Falcons are 4-3 SU and ATS and have been much tougher on the defensive side of the ball. During their 0-5 skid to start 2020, Atlanta allowed 32.2 points per game. That’s been trimmed to just over 20 points per outing in the last seven contests.

Regardless of Lynn's job security, this spread is going to go up quickly. Catch the Falcons under a field goal on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5): Bet Later

All aboard the Jalen Hurts hype train! The Eagles rookie passer and former Alabama/Oklahoma QB turned heads with his brief fourth-quarter contributions in Week 13’s loss to Green Bay. Hurts replaced the struggling Carson Wentz and brought Philadelphia within a touchdown before a 77-yard TD run from the Packers denied the backdoor cover.

The Saints added another chain to their now nine-game winning streak, upending the Falcons 21-16. And while NOLA covered for the sixth time during this run, it wasn’t an overly impressive win. New Orleans plays its third straight road game in Philadelphia, where the early forecast is calling for a wet and windy weekend in the City of Brotherly Love (keep an eye, since we’re still a week out). New Orleans has played outdoors just three times this season.

This spread opened Saints -6.5 and the vig is starting to climb on the visitor, indicating a move to a touchdown. If you think Hurts gets another go and are fading the Saints' road-heavy sked, wait it out and grab all the points you can with the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (Over 55): Bet Now

Detroit just gave up 30 points to the Chicago Bears—a team that scored a collective 78 points in the month of November. The Lions have doled out points like 2020 hand sanitizer, giving up an average of 29.8 points per outing on the year, and now have the fun task of checking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who hung 42 points on Detroit back in Week 2.

Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in all but three games this season and has thrived when hitting the fast indoor tracks, averaging 36.5 points per game under a dome. The Cheeseheads have looked like the Swiss variety when away from Lambeau, allowing 28.8 points against as a visitor – fourth-most in the NFL – which has led to a 4-2 Over/Under mark on the road.

That Week 2 42-21 final score played Over the 51-point total and snapped a three-game Under run in this NFC North rivalry. However, the Packers and Lions have topped the total in seven of their last 10 matchups and this number is quickly climbing from 54.5 to 55 points. Jump on that Over now.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 52.5): Bet Later

This total opened 52.5 and there's a slight lean toward the Over with the early movement on the juice. That’s not surprising given how this Vikings defense is playing. However, on the other side of the ball is one of the tightest stop units in the land and an offense that's cooled off with the climate.

Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and hoping that hiatus can jump-start Tom Brady and the scoring attack. The Buccaneers averaged just over 24 points per game in November after posting 31.7 points an outing in the first two months of the schedule. Luckily, those offensive issues have been mopped up by a stop unit ranked third in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.

Minnesota managed to get past Jacksonville but needed an extra frame to pick up its fifth win in the past six games. The Vikes' production takes a significant dip when playing on the road, scoring nearly a touchdown less in the role of visitor (23.0 points per road game). Quarterback Kirk Cousins has looked great recently but has played some bullshit defenses over the past month. Cousins is staring down the barrel of one of the most disruptive stop units in the league in Week 14, with Tampa boasting 34 sacks and 20 takeaways.

If you like the Under, see if that shift in vig toward the Over manifests itself into an extra half-point or more before placing your bet.

Posted : December 8, 2020 11:39 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57994

Member Moderator

Topic starter

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 10

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 6) at LA RAMS (8 - 4) - 12/10/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-214 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-214 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-51 ATS (+34.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 204-156 ATS (+32.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-94 ATS (+32.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-94 ATS (+28.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-60 ATS (+27.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 13

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GREEN BAY (9 - 3) at DETROIT (5 - 7) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 121-86 ATS (+26.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 151-192 ATS (-60.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 50-74 ATS (-31.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (8 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 11) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (3 - 8) at CINCINNATI (2 - 9 - 1) - 12/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.