NFL Betting News and Trends For Super Bowl LII, February 4, 2018

Advantage: Philadelphia · New England · Over · Under
Last February we watched the ‘over’ (57) cash in Super Bowl 51 and for those of you who had the ‘under’ in that contest, please continue to accept our apologies one year later. The low side was definitely the right lean in that game and it looked like a sure thing but that was before New England pulled off the improbable 34-28 comeback victory in overtime against Atlanta.

It’s not the worst “Total Beat” I’ve seen but it’s up there and it was probably a good thing it was the last game of the season for some bettors.

Fast forward to Super Bowl 52 and the oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 47 ½ both in Las Vegas and at the Offshore sportsbooks. As we head into the final days of betting, the number has held steady and most shops are holding 48 as of Wednesday afternoon.

According to the latest betting trends at VegasInsider.com, the ‘over’ is receiving more attention and that shouldn’t come as a surprise since the public usually sides with the high side in the finale while the pro bettors lean low.

With assistance from one of the top VegasInsider.com handicappers and contributors Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.

Over Trends and Angles to Watch

-- The Eagles went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread versus AFC opponents this season while the offense averaged 29 points per game. The ‘over’ went 2-1-1.

-- The Patriots went 3-1 both SU and ATS in non-conference games as well behind an offense that averaged 27 PPG.

-- Philadelphia only faced three playoff teams during the regular season and all of the games took place on the road. They went 2-1 in those games despite allowing 28.3 PPG. The ‘over’ went 2-0-1.

-- Meanwhile, New England was 3-2 against postseason clubs this season and the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those games while the offense averaged 28.6 PPG and the defense surrendered 25.2 PPG.

-- The Eagles didn’t play any games indoors this season but the Patriots notched a 36-20 road win over New Orleans in Week 2 at the Superdome.

-- The Eagles scoring defense (17.3 PPG) enters this game ranked second in the league but most of the great production was done at home (12.4 PPG) and not on the road (23.5 PPG), which has been a pattern under head coach Doug Pederson. Since he took over Philadelphia, the Birds have allowed 24.7 PPG in 16 road games and that’s led to an 11-4-1 ‘over’ mark.

-- The Patriots have watched the ‘over’ cash in six of their last eight playoff games and the offense has averaged 29.5 PPG during this stretch.

-- New England has played in nine Super Bowls all-time and the ‘over’ has gone 5-4 in those games. With Tom Brady and Bill Belichick running the show, the 'under' has gone 4-3 but the last two trips to the finale have gone ‘over’ the number.

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-- This will be the third Super Bowl appearance for the Eagles, who allowed 27 and 24 points in their first two trips to the big game.

-- QB Nick Foles has started three postseason games in his career, all with the Eagles, and his teams have averaged 25.6 PPG.

-- The total on this year’s Super Bowl is hovering between 48 and 48 ½ points. The Eagles have had two totals fall in this neighborhood and the results ended in a stalemate (1-1). New England has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 with numbers closing at 48 or 48 ½.

-- There has been one Super Bowl played at Minnesota, which took place in 1992 when Washington throttled Buffalo 37-24 and the ‘over’ (49) connected easily.

Expert Analysis – Joe Nelson

With a total of 57 last year’s Super Bowl win for the Patriots featured the highest Super Bowl total ever. A year later the total is currently nine points below that mark at 48 and seven of the last nine Super Bowls have featured 48 or more points scored as scoring has generally been on display on the league’s biggest stage.

Last week’s 24-20 win for the Patriots stayed just ‘under’ but Jaguars fans would argue they deserved another touchdown with the controversial ruling on the Myles Jack strip that was perhaps errantly whistled down by contact. There was over 700 yards in that game and Jacksonville was in New England territory before going backwards in the final series. In the past 10 Patriots playoff games the ‘over’ is 7-2-1 and this total will be lower than several of those games, many of which were outdoors in cold January conditions.

After allowing 128 points in the first four weeks of the season the Patriots allowed just 168 points in the final 12 weeks. Certainly some positive adjustments were made in that span but the schedule played a big role as well as the Patriots played quality teams in that first month including facing three playoff teams. In only four of the final 12 regular season games did the Patriots face a playoff team and two of those games came against a very limited Bills offense.

New England also caught one of the most favorable playoff paths ever facing a Titans team that was a negative scoring differential team and a Jaguars team that has been quite erratic and limited on offense as the defense hasn’t been tested against a top offense since facing Pittsburgh in Week 15. New England allowed 24 points in that game with all common sense pointing to the Patriots actually allowing 31 points in that game.

While New England’s defense has been erratic the offense has not been. With 458 points on the season the Patriots were the second highest scoring team in the NFL and only once all season was New England held below 20 points and barely so with a 19-14 win at Tampa Bay in October. Since a Week 9 bye week the Patriots have averaged 30.1 points per game the past 10 games with minimal variance, scoring at least 23 points in every game.

In the regular season Philadelphia scored just one fewer point than the Patriots and keep in mind that is with the adjustment at quarterback. While the Eagles put up 34 points in the first start for Foles they scored just 19 points combined in Week 16 and 17 with the offense struggling and with the team in a situation where they didn’t have great urgency to win given their top position in the NFC. Foles was injured much of the season and didn’t have regular practice reps all year as it isn’t surprising that he struggled in his first few games and has now found his stride.

Take out the final two weeks and the Eagles would have led the NFL in scoring with 31.3 points per game and so far in the playoffs the Eagles have scored 53 points against a pair of high quality defenses. Had the NFC Championship been competitive the Eagles likely would have added even more points as they didn’t score in the final 14 minutes with the game out of hand. In the divisional win over Atlanta the Eagles scored only 15 points but they missed an extra-point and settled for three field goals including an incredibly short 4th quarter kick of just 21 yards as 15 points came with solid production of 334 yards of offense. The Eagles also fumbled in field goal range on 1st down early in that game as well to keep points off the board.

Many expected the Eagles to be conservative in the postseason behind Nick Foles but Philadelphia has thrown 63 times in two postseason games despite outdoor January conditions in Philadelphia. Foles has delivered with nearly 78 percent completions on nearly 9.5 yards per pass attempt despite going against two of the better pass defenses in the NFL. The Patriots meanwhile allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt in the regular season to rank 25th in the NFL and over the last six weeks despite stronger numbers overall for the New England defense, the Patriots have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Foles may not be close to being in Tom Brady’s company but he compares favorably to the quartet of Tyrod Taylor, Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota, and Blake Bortles, which are the marginal quarterbacks New England has faced the last four weeks.

The top two yards per pass attempt defenses in the NFL were both in the conference championship games and neither is playing in the Super Bowl as Minnesota and Jacksonville both allowed just 6.0 yards per pass attempt on the season. The Patriots threw for 298 yards on nearly 70 percent completions to beat the Jaguars while Foles and the Eagles torched the Vikings with only seven incomplete passes en route to a 352 passing yards game on 10.7 yards per attempt. However you grade the Philadelphia and New England pass defenses they likely can’t be considered as good as the units these quarterbacks faced in the conference championships and both still had great success. Brady actually had some of his biggest passing games against the top rated pass defenses he faced this season.

Given the comeback ability both of these teams has displayed and the general edge that the offenses can get in the NFL rulebook this is rather attainable number for an indoor game with two of the top scoring teams in the NFL. The kicking game will also get a boost with more possible attempts from longer distances in an indoor setting and both offenses could be at an advantage as these teams haven’t met since a 35-28 win for the Eagles in 2015 and there also simply is not a lot of film on Foles in this offense for a Patriots franchise known for its meticulous scouting work.

By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Advantage: Philadelphia · New England · Over · Under
As expected, the ‘over’ tickets started to show up late this week and it appears the bookmakers will need the low side come Sunday evening according to our Super Bowl 52 Betting Update. That’s not surprising at all since the betting masses usually cheer for points in the nationally televised games.

Even though the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five NFL finales, the high side barely holds an edge (26-24) in the first 50 Super Bowls listed with a total.

With assistance from one of the top VegasInsider.com handicappers and contributors Joe Nelson, we provide you with trends, angles and statistics on why you should bet the ‘under’ in Super Bowl 52 between the Eagles and Patriots.

Under Trends and Angles to Watch

-- New England started the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets but it closed the 2017 campaign on a 10-4 ‘under’ run and that includes a 1-1 total mark in the playoffs which could’ve easily been 2-0 to the low side if it wasn’t for a meaningless touchdown by the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card round.

-- The Patriots defense allowed 32 points per game in the first quarter of the season but buckled down 14.4 points per game in their final 14 games.

-- Philadelphia was ranked second in scoring defense (17.3 PPG) while New England (18.3 PPG) wasn’t far behind in the fifth spot. What’s more eye-opening is that the Patriots were ranked second in PPG allowed on the road with 16.1. The Patriots saw the ‘under’ go 6-2 in their eight games away from home.

-- One stat not receiving that much attention this week is ‘Time of Possession’ and Philadelphia has been ranked first in this category since head coach Doug Pederson joined the team two years ago. The Eagles controlled the clock for 32:44 this season and if successful in that category on Sunday that would obviously keep the more explosive Patriots offense off the field.

-- Scoring hasn’t been an issue for either team this season but Philadelphia has been more prone to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. In the playoffs, they have six touchdowns (one defense) and five field goals compared to eight offensive touchdowns and one field goal for New England. ‘Over’ bettors know how much it stings when you have to settle for the short kicks while leaving possibly four points off the board.

-- Sticking with that thought, the Eagles have scored 18 times with quarterback Nick Foles but the touchdowns (10) to field goal (8) breakdown was very tight. While it’s amazing that Foles is tied with the legendary Peyton Manning for an NFL record with seven touchdown passes in a game, he’s also thrown no TDS in 13 of his 42 starts.

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-- It’s rare to see New England listed as a favorite under five points, something that’s only occurred 12 times in the last three seasons. In those games, the Patriots have gone 8-4 both SU and ATS while the ‘under’ has produced a 9-3 mark due to a strong defensive effort (15.9 PPG).

-- The ‘under’ has gone 4-3 in the last seven Super Bowl appearances for New England and you can certainly make an argument that the ‘under’ could be 7-0 if it wasn’t for a ton of late surges. We saw a combined 19.6 points per game scored in the fourth quarter and overtime of those games with the Patriots.

-- Not surprisingly BookMaker.eu has the fourth quarter point total listed at 13 ½ (-120), which is the highest of the four quarters in Super Bowl 52.

-- The lowest quarter point total of Super Bowl 52 is the first quarter (9 ½, -117) and that shouldn’t come as a surprise with New England being held scoreless in the first 15 minutes in its last seven Super Bowls. While it’s well noted that the Patriots offense has sputtered early in the big games, the defense has been very solid during this span and has only allowed 2.1 PPG.

-- For savvy halftime bettors, make a note that the Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in the first-half of their last seven finales while the ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in the second-half.

-- This will be the 11th meeting in the Super Bowl between teams from the NFC East and AFC East. The NFC East owns an 8-2 record in these games and the 'under' has gone 7-3 in those games.

-- The Patriots have played in three of those games, going 1-2 with a pair of losses to the Giants and the lone victory coming against the Eagles (24-21) in Super Bowl 39. All three of those games went 'under' with the totals ranging from 46.5 to 55.

-- Philadelphia has played in the Super Bowl twice and the 'under' has cashed in both of those games.

Expert Analysis – Joe Nelson

US Bank Stadium has now hosted 17 NFL games with 16 regular season games and a wild playoff game. The ‘under’ has a 10/7 lean indoors in Minneapolis but all of those games involved a Minnesota Vikings team that has been one of the better defensive teams in the league the past two seasons. The 2017-18 opening week game between the Vikings and the Saints featured a total of 47.5 with the Super Bowl set to eclipse that mark for the highest total for a NFL game in the building.

Both teams have been ‘under’ leaning in recent weeks after an early season ‘over’ pace. The ‘over’ went 6-3 in the first nine games for the Eagles but since a Week 10 bye week the ‘under’ is 6-3 counting the split in two playoff wins for Philadelphia. The first four Patriots games of the season went ‘over’ with a combined 257 points but the ‘under’ is 10-4 in the past 14 games for New England, with the totals also splitting in the postseason for the Patriots as well.

Those first four weeks skew a lot of the numbers for New England with the Patriots finishing ranked 29th in the NFL in the regular season in total defense despite being fifth in the NFL in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game allowed. Take away those first four games and the Patriots allowed just 14.0 points per game the rest of the season counting the playoff wins where they have allowed 17.0 points per game.

Looking at the last six weeks counting the playoff wins over Tennessee and Jacksonville and New England’s defense is allowing just is allowing just 17.8 points per game with a standout run defense allowing just 3.6 yards per rush including games against the Jaguars and Bills, who both finished as two of the most productive rushing teams in the league.

The season numbers suggest the Eagles should be able to run the ball against the Patriots as New England has allowed 4.7 yards per rush for the season to rate as the second worst run defense in the NFL in that measure but a lot changed for New England since allowing 531 rushing yards in the first four games.

In contrast the Eagles are among the NFL leaders in most rushing categories and gained 4.5 yards per rush on the season but in the last six weeks with Nick Foles taking over late in the Week 14 win over the Rams the Eagles have posted only 3.7 yards per rush. In that span the Philadelphia offense has scored just 23.2 points per game for a big decline from the season average and the NFC Championship scoring was inflated with 14 points off turnovers including the first Eagles touchdown coming on a 50-yard interception return.

These teams were both top three scoring teams in the NFL regular season at nearly 29 points per game but over the past four games the Eagles have allowed a grand total of just 33 points and eight times this season the Eagles held a foe to 10 or fewer points.

New England’s defense has allowed just one second half touchdown over the past four games and that was meaningless score for the Titans after the two-minute-warning in the 35-14 divisional round win for the Patriots, a score that also shifted the result from ‘under’ to ‘over’ as the ‘under’ run for Patriots games could be on an even stronger run.

While Philadelphia’s running game and run defense has not lived up to the season numbers since the quarterback change, the pass defense has been outstanding in that span allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt in the last six games. That includes facing three of the league’s top five Total QBR quarterbacks in that span, with Tom Brady holding that distinction as well.

Given the recent improvement for the New England run defense and the strong pass defense numbers for the Eagles both defenses should be in position to thwart the best options for the opposing offenses. The lingering injury to Rob Gronkowski also should favor a look at the ‘under’ with his tremendous impact on the offense and defensive game plan. Most expect Gronkowski to play but should he be limited the Patriots might have to change the offensive plan and pace.

While the ‘over’ has hit in four of the past five Super Bowls, last season’s game was on pace to stay ‘under’ before the wild comeback finish for the Patriots with 25 points in the fourth quarter and overtime. New England’s Super Bowl XLIX win also featured a late flurry in a New England comeback with only 38 points scored 52 minutes into the game. Super Bowl XLVIII also featured a fourth quarter touchdown that flipped the total result to ‘over’ as there have been some misleading final scores in recent years for those tracking the Super Bowl totals with the ‘over’ having recent success.
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Advantage: Philadelphia · New England · Over · Under
If nothing else, if they find themselves down a 10-spot early and Tom Brady’s glove-wearing has seemingly given him magical powers, the Eagles won’t question their resolve.

The third team in franchise history to reach a Super Bowl can become the first to leave one a champion if they’re as resilient on Sunday as they’ve proven to be the past few months.

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There wasn’t a lot of adversity throughout the season as Carson Wentz carved up defenses. The worst thing that happened, losing future Hall of Fame left tackle Jason Peters, did provide a major obstacle they still have to clear one last time. There wasn’t much losing to get over.

Kansas City defeated Philly in Week 2 and was the only team who had done so until December rolled around. The Eagles’ fell in Seattle, but Wentz performed great the next week to knock off the Rams. Unfortunately, he also tore his ACL, putting the Eagles in a position where they were likely to be swallowed up by adversity.

Despite ugly games to end the season, including a Week 17’s shutout loss where Nate Sudfeld wrapped up, Philadelphia never allowed Wentz’s injury to derail a season that came out of nowhere to wind up being among the best in franchise history.

The Eagles are an underdog for the fourth straight week and overcame being knocked down early by Atlanta, then survived a last-second bullet thrown from Matt Ryan to Julio Jones that would’ve proved most everyone right.

The Eagles weren’t supposed to survive having to ride Nick Foles after losing Wentz, but they’ve put him on their shoulders and made homefield advantage hold up. To be fair, he hasn’t been too heavy a burden. Foles came through with a three-touchdown night in the NFC Championship, helping them rally from a 7-0 deficit and ultimately closing out a run of 38 consecutive points through the air.

With Wentz at the helm, given what we’ve seen from the spread this week, Super Bowl LII might have been a pick’em. The Foles-Brady mismatch is the reason most that wind up laying points with New England will do so, but the quarterbacks obviously don’t face one another. Standing in Brady’s way is an Eagles defense that has done the team’s heavy lifting over the past few weeks.

"The Eagles have allowed just 17 points in a pair of playoff wins while allowing just 33 points over the last four games combined as this defense isn’t getting the respect it deserves as a historically great unit that has a great shot to emerge as the Super Bowl champions. Philadelphia has allowed just 15.1 points per game over the last 11 games going back to Week 8 as well." said VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson. "Stopping Tom Brady is a very difficult task but Philadelphia allowed just 6.5 yards per pass attempt in the regular season, only trailing Minnesota and Jacksonville in the season numbers."

"Counting the playoffs the Eagles have 21 interceptions this season and over the past three games including two postseason wins the Eagles have allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Those games came against Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, and Case Keenum, and while none of those players has Tom Brady’s legacy they ranked #4, #5, and #2 in Total QBR this season, with Brady #3 as the Eagles defense has dominated three of the league’s best quarterbacks in the past three games."

Jim Schwartz has once again proven he’s a brilliant defensive coordinator. His group has surrendered nine second-half points over the last four games, including none this postseason. It’s ultimately up to the defense to keep Brady from denying Philadelphia a Super Bowl for the second consecutive decade.

The Patriots completed a repeat they’re seeking here 13 years ago thanks more to the four turnovers their defense caused than Brady’s two TD passes. If the Eagles are going to be successful, they’ve got to get into the backfield and rattle a quarterback that has already won five rings.

Philadelphia has an elite playmaker up front in Fletcher Cox and multiple options to deal with Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has been cleared to play and will therefore be the focal point in the passing game.

Safety Malcolm Jenkins is likely to be the most effective option and would be a smart longshot to bet for Super Bowl MVP since a big game shutting down Gronk would be a major theme that would draw major notice. He also owns a 99-yard interception return for a score against Brady and comes into this one knowing his ability to hang with New England’s main weapon will likely be the difference here.

Eagles head coach Doug Pederson can certainly help his defense by shortening the game via his prolific rushing attack. Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement will all get touches behind an offensive line that has been able to survive the loss of Peters thanks to Lane Johnson moving over and thriving. With Jason Kelce and guard Brandon Brooks thriving inside, the Eagles should be able to move the ball and move the chains like they want to in order to control time of possession.

To that end, even when Wentz was still in the mix, the defense began to take over and set the tone. The under is 6-3 in Philly’s last nine games and only lost in the NFC Championship game because it got so out of hand since the Vikings managed just seven points. Yes, Foles will have to deal with a defensive game plan Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia have put together to ensure he never gets comfortable, but so long as he avoids being confused into turnovers, the Eagles will have an opportunity to gain revenge for Super Bowl XXXIX.

Pederson had just played his final professional season back in ’04, so this is an entirely different brain trust the Eagles come in with to face Bill Belichick and his staff with. Current coordinators Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia were both on that ’04 New England staff in lesser roles and appear poised to each land head coaching roles, in Detroit and Indianapolis, respectively.

If this line gets back up above 4.5, the Eagles will be the heaviest underdog they’ve been all season. Philadelphia went 3-2 straight up and ATS when catching points. It is already accustomed to winning when few believe. It has already proven capable of overcoming injuries that seemed insurmountable, doing so impressively enough that it has drawn true believers. Special teams, an area where New England has typically excelled, could also be an area where the Eagles can make inroads.

"Expect the kicking game to be a factor in this game with an indoor setting and with defenses that excelled at getting 3rd down stops. Philadelphia stopped foes on more than 67 percent of 3rd down tries in the regular season," Nelson said. "While Stephen Gostkowski has been a proven postseason performer, 16 of his 37 field goal makes in the regular season came from 29 or fewer yards. He also missed a field goal in the playoff win against Tennessee. Jake Elliott hasn’t been on this stage but he has a big leg, making 18 of 20 kicks this season from 40 or more yards including a big 53-yard kick before halftime in the divisional win over Atlanta."

At the risk of sounding like Al Pacino's Tony D'Amato character in Any Given Sunday, the Eagles have a chance to grab inches around them through a number of phases of the game. Most important, if Jenkins, Cox and linebackers Mychal Kendricks, Nigel Bradham and Dannell Ellerbe play to their potential, the Eagles defense will give New England plenty of resistance.

Offensively, the rushing attack must handle their business and Foles needs to continue to avoid miscues and keep defenses honest, but Philadelphia has a chance to celebrate finally breaking through and making history with its first Super Bowl triumph.

By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Advantage: Philadelphia · New England · Over · Under
The Patriots are seeking their sixth Super Bowl title during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, while going for back-to-back championships for the first time since 2003-2004. New England faces Philadelphia in Super Bowl LII on Sunday in Minneapolis, as the Patriots are attempting to win a Super Bowl by more than six points for the first time in franchise history.

We remember the epic comeback that Brady produced in last February’s 34-28 overtime triumph over the Falcons to cash as three-point favorites. Brady captured his fourth Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award by throwing for a SB record 466 yards and overcoming a 28-3 second-half deficit. Brady has racked up multi-touchdown performances in five of seven Super Bowl appearances, while the Patriots are 4-1 in those games.

In the regular season, the Patriots led the league in yards per game (394.2), ranked second in passing yards per game (276.1), and second in points scored (458). The defense struggled to start the season by allowing 128 points in the first four games (32 ppg), but tightened up by yielding 168 points in the next 12 contests (14 ppg) and compiling an 11-1 mark in that stretch.

In two playoff victories over the Jaguars and Titans, New England gave up 34 points, including one touchdown in the second half.

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Philadelphia ranked third in the league in points scored with 457, but posted only 19 points in the final two regular season games with six of them scored on a meaningless fumble recovery returned for a touchdown against Oakland in Week 16. The Eagles posted five defensive touchdowns this season, while each of the Patriots’ 48 touchdowns came from their offense.

This season, the Eagles won an NFC-high 13 games, but beat only two playoff teams, the Panthers and Rams. Obviously Philadelphia racked up a pair of victories over playoff squads in the postseason over Atlanta and Minnesota, but the Eagles are hitting the road for the first time since Week 15.

In the last three road games, Philadelphia has allowed 24, 35, and 29 points, while yielding at least 23 points in all four opportunities as a ‘dog away from Lincoln Financial Field.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson analyzes how the Eagles benefited from big plays in the postseason, “The Eagles have caught big turnover breaks down the stretch, notably getting 14 first half points last week off turnovers in the NFC Championship including the early 50-yard interception return touchdown and another turnover late in the first half that helped turn a likely 14-10 edge into a 24-7 halftime lead. New England continues to win despite not winning the turnover battle in any of the last seven games and being -4 in net turnovers the past six games.”

Many people forget that the Eagles benefited from a much easier schedule than the Patriots due to a lousy 2016 finish, according to Nelson, “A lot is being made of the easy path the Patriots had to get to the Super Bowl, watching the Ravens and Chargers miss the playoffs and then seeing the Chiefs and Steelers get upset in the AFC field.”

“The AFC East is also deservedly criticized but the Eagles mostly built their great season numbers against lousy competition, drawing a fourth place schedule after finishing just 7-9 last season. The regular season schedule for the Eagles only wound up featuring three games against playoff teams with Philadelphia allowing over 28 points per game in those contests. New England wound up playing seven playoff teams in the regular season schedule,” Nelson notes.

Sixteen times in Super Bowl history prior to last season has the game been decided by seven points or less. The next year in this scenario, the Super Bowl has been decided by a double-digit margin 13 times. That bodes well for New England, as favorites are 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS in these games.

The Patriots have struggled historically in the Super Bowl scoring in the first quarter by not putting up a single point in the past seven tries in the opening 15 minutes. However, New England has stepped up late by posting 19 fourth quarter points against Atlanta last season and 14 points in the last 15 minutes against Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX.

VegasInsider.com trends expert Vince Akins drops in a solid trend supporting New England, "The Patriots are 7-0-1 ATS since Dec 13, 2015 coming off a home game where they scored less than expected." Four of those victories came in this situation in 2017, including three double-digit wins.

The AFC has captured four of the past five Super Bowl titles, including each of the last three seasons (New England twice and Denver). Being the top seed in the NFC doesn’t equal Super Bowl success as only two teams since 2000 have claimed the title as the number one seed (2009 Saints and 2013 Seahawks).

By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

SB52 Prop Predictions
February 3, 2018
By VI News
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl 52 Party Prop Sheet

Undecided on the Eagles or Patriots in Super Bowl 52?

Fortunately the proposition wagers provide bettors other opportunities to cash tickets on the big game.

Similar to past Super Bowls, VegasInsider.com asked nine of our NFL analysts and handicappers to make predictions on 10 of the most popular props for Sunday's finale between Philadelphia and New England.

Props per William Hill U.S. - Odds are subject to change.

1) First Score of Game Will Be:
Touchdown -140 Field Goal/Safety +120

Brian Edwards: Field Goal/Safety
Chris David: Touchdown
Kevin Rogers: Field Goal/Safety
Joe Nelson: Touchdown
Joe Williams: Field Goal/Safety
Micah Roberts: Field Goal/Safety
Paul Bovi: Touchdown
Scott Rickenbach: Touchdown
Tony Mejia: Field Goal/Safety

Consensus: Field Goal/Safety (5-4)

Quick Thoughts - Chris David: I believe the Patriots will score early and often in this matchup and they usually get touchdowns instead of field goals, which has been the case in this year's postseason with an 8-1 ratio. The Eagles haven't been great with field position all season and that should put New England in great shape to start the game. The public has been buying into New England's tendencies of slow starts in the Super Bowl and I believe that will change this Sunday.

2) Will there be a successful Two-Point Conversion? Yes +190 No +220

Brian Edwards: No
Chris David: Yes
Kevin Rogers: No
Joe Nelson: No
Joe Williams: No
Micah Roberts: No
Paul Bovi: No
Scott Rickenbach: No
Tony Mejia: No

Consensus: No (7-2)

3) First Offensive Play from Scrimmage Will Be: Run Play +105 Pass Play -125

Brian Edwards: Pass Play
Chris David: Pass Play
Kevin Rogers: Pass Play
Joe Nelson: Pass Play
Joe Williams: Pass Play
Micah Roberts: Pass Play
Paul Bovi: Pass Play
Scott Rickenbach: Run Play
Tony Mejia: Pass Play

Consensus: Pass Play (8-1)

Quick Thoughts - Joe Nelson: The Patriots are certain to defer if they win the toss and in all five Nick Foles starts the Eagles have started with a pass play on their first play of their first offensive possession. Getting him comfortable and confident with a high percentage throw on 1st down will be a priority for Philadelphia.

4) Will there be a Special Teams or Defensive TD? Yes +140 No -160

Brian Edwards: No
Chris David: No
Kevin Rogers: Yes
Joe Nelson: No
Joe Williams: No
Micah Roberts: No
Paul Bovi: No
Scott Rickenbach: Yes
Tony Mejia: No

Consensus: No (7-2)

5) Total Players to Attempt Pass: Over 2 ½ +160 Under 2 ½ +180

Brian Edwards: Under
Chris David: Under
Kevin Rogers: Under
Joe Nelson: Under
Joe Williams: Under
Micah Roberts: Over
Paul Bovi: Under
Scott Rickenbach: Over
Tony Mejia: Under

Consensus: Under (7-2)

Quick Thoughts - Kevin Rogers: Assuming there are no injuries, Brady will play the entire game as backup Brian Hoyer came in during garbage time in two games this season. Same story for Foles, as backup Nate Sudfeld played in the meaningless season finale against the Cowboys. Not one player other than a quarterback threw a pass for either team, so don’t expect any trick plays.

6) Total Interceptions in Game: Over 1 ½ +130 Under 1 ½ -150

Brian Edwards: Over
Chris David: Over
Kevin Rogers: Under
Joe Nelson: Over
Joe Williams: Over
Micah Roberts: Under
Paul Bovi: Over
Scott Rickenbach: Under
Tony Mejia: Under

Consensus: Over (5-4)

Quick Thoughts - Brian Edwards: We get plus money with the 'over' and Foles is playing in his first Super Bowl. For all of Brady's greatness, rings and victories, he's thrown picks in previous Super Bowls, and he'll be facing a lot of pressure from the Eagles throughout the game.

Quick Thoughts - Joe Williams: I think Nick Foles could easily be coaxed into several miscues in the biggest game of his career, playing against an experienced opponent on the big stage. Even if this number was 2 ½, I’d still play the over. Tom Brady will also be good for at least one pick against an aggressive Philadelphia secondary, and he has at least one INT in three straight Super Bowls.

7) Total Completions Tom Brady (Patriots QB): Over 26 ½ -110 Under 26 ½ -110

Brian Edwards: Over
Chris David: Under
Kevin Rogers: Over
Joe Nelson: Under
Joe Williams: Over
Micah Roberts: Over
Paul Bovi: Over
Scott Rickenbach: Under
Tony Mejia: Over

Consensus: Over (6-3)

Quick Thoughts - Paul Bovi: Expect New England to prioritize the pass from the outset emphasizing a steady diet of short throws to his backs and wideouts while employing a quick release. With the Eagles sporting a solid run defense and leading the league in QB pressures it will force Brady into a ball control passing game which should pave the way for 30 or more completions.

Quick Thoughts - Joe Nelson: Tom Brady had more than 26 completions just five times in 16 regular season games and just four times in 12 regular season games last season. Even with the Patriots falling way behind early in the AFC Championship Brady wound up with just 26 completions in the comeback win. Philadelphia’s run defense is more vulnerable than the season numbers suggest and the Patriots might be less pass-oriented than expected Sunday.

8) Total Points: Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots K): Over 8 ½ -120 Under 8 ½ +100

Brian Edwards: Over
Chris David: Under
Kevin Rogers: Under
Joe Nelson: Over
Joe Williams: Over
Micah Roberts: Over
Paul Bovi: Over
Scott Rickenbach: Over
Tony Mejia: Over

Consensus: Over (7-2)

Quick Thoughts - Joe Williams: Gostkowski could be New England’s best weapon, especially early on as the teams feel each other out. And the weather might be frightful outside in Minneapolis, but the 72-degree temperature and lack of wind in neutral conditions will aid Gostkowski and Philadelphia’s Jake Elliott.

Quick Thoughts -Scott Rickenbach: The Eagles are likely to force plenty of field goal attempts in this game as their defense has been playing very, very well. Of course field goals is where Gostkowski's biggest points would come from and the odds are in favor of 3 field goals in this game. That's because the Patriots averaged 2.5 field goal attempts per game in the regular season and that included plenty of games against cupcake defenses where the focus was easy touchdowns. The Patriots likely to be forced to settle for some field goals in this one.

9) Total Punts – Both Teams: Over 9 ½ -110 Under 9 ½ -110

Brian Edwards: Under
Chris David: Under
Kevin Rogers: Under
Joe Nelson: Under
Joe Williams: Over
Micah Roberts: Over
Paul Bovi: Under
Scott Rickenbach: Under
Tony Mejia: Under

Consensus: Under (7-2)

Quick Thoughts - Tony Mejia: While both defenses should have success in this contest, the fact Philadelphia is so willing to go for it on fourth down and effective running it and completing short passes should at least eat clock in situations where they do wind up punting. Tom Brady and the offense will also move the chains effectively enough to avoid too many three-and-outs, which looks to be the enemy of this prop.

10) Player to Score First Touchdown:

Brian Edwards: Brandin Cooks (12/1)
Chris David: Rob Gronkowski (6/1)
Kevin Rogers: James White (10/1)
Joe Nelson: LeGarrette Blount (9/1)
Joe Williams: Alshon Jeffery (8/1)
Micah Roberts: LeGarrette Blount (9/1)
Paul Bovi: LeGarrette Blount (9/1)
Scott Rickenbach: LeGarrette Blount (9/1)
Tony Mejia:Jay Ajayi (9/1)

Consensus: LeGarrette Blount (4)

Quick Thoughts - Brian Edwards: I've hit this prop three times recently -- Devin Hester (25/1, Bears-Colts), Anquan Boldin (12/1, Ravens-49ers) and Brandon LaFell (16/1, Patriots-Seahawks) and I'm solid on this pick too. Cooks has has seven TD catches this season and should receive single coverage in the red zone.

Quick Thoughts: Joe Nelson: The former Patriot had just two touchdown rushes in the regular season but now has two in two playoff games in the postseason. New England’s foe has scored first in both playoff games as taking a shot with an Eagle to score first provides favorable pricing and in a potential short yardage situation Blount will be the go-to guy for Philadelphia as he looks to redeem himself after an early fumble in last year’s Super Bowl.