College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
BUFFALO (4 - 6) at BALL ST (2 - 8 ) - 11/16/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BALL ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TULSA (2 - 8 ) at S FLORIDA (8 - 1) - 11/16/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
S FLORIDA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BUFFALO @ BALL STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Ball State
Ball State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ball State's last 7 games
TULSA @ SOUTH FLORIDA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tulsa's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tulsa's last 14 games on the road
South Florida is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
South Florida is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
NCAAF Week 12
Ball State lost its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they’re 0-2 as a home dog this year- since 2007, they’re 5-13 as a home dog. Ball allowed 222+ rushing yards, 433+ TY in each of its last four games. Buffalo lost four of last five games, but they did gain 1,041 TY in last two games. Bulls are 7-2 vs spread this year, 2-0 as a home favorite. Cardinals won seven of last eight games with Buffalo, winning last three by 10-3-17 points; Bulls lost last three visits to Muncie, by 3-35-21 points. Dogs covered last four series games. MAC home dogs are 6-10 vs spread.
South Florida is 8-1, hasn’t played in 12 days; they’re 3-1 vs spread as a home favorite, but are 0-3 vs spread in last three games overall- their only loss was at home to Houston. Tulsa lost seven of its last eight games; they’re 2-3 as a road underdog this year, with road losses by 35-3-34-6-4 points. Hurricane allowed 1,071 PY in its last three games. USF (-2) won 38-30 at Tulsa in only meeting, three years ago. AAC home favorites are 9-10 vs spread this season. Under is 3-1 in last four USF games, 6-1 in last seven Tulsa games.
Armadillosports.com
Tulsa at South Florida
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
This late season matchup looked likely to be a meaningful game in the AAC standings when the schedule came out with Tulsa and South Florida combining for 21 wins last season. The second ever meeting between these programs features a massive spread but provides intrigue with South Florida heading into a division title showdown next week and Tulsa looking to close down the season with a big upset.
Matchup: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at South Florida Bulls
Venue: At Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 16, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: South Florida -22, Over/Under 66½
Last Meeting: 2014, South Florida (-2) 38, at Tulsa 30
The AAC features one of the four remaining undefeated teams in the country but it is not South Florida as most expected but rather Central Florida chasing perfection. South Florida will get an opportunity to spoil that quest for the Knights next week in a game that will decide the AAC East division title provided the Bulls win this week.
Charlie Strong had great success at Louisville before jumping to a three-year struggle at Texas. His results in year 1 at South Florida have been excellent with the Bulls going 8-1 though the schedule has been very weak. South Florida is scoring nearly 39 points per game while allowing fewer than 20 points per game and the offense has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation averaging 277 yards per game.
Senior quarterback Quinton Flowers has seen his numbers decline from last season for South Florida as he has completed only 55 percent of his passes with lesser production in the passing game while not even to half of his 2016 rushing total at this point in the season. The schedule has been a factor as while the Bulls went 11-2 last season the defense allowed nearly 32 points per game as there were many high scoring back-and-forth games. This year South Florida has mostly cruised with six of the team’s eight wins by 17 or more points.
South Florida’s only loss of the season came in late October at home hosting Houston. The Bulls had edges across the board statistically but converted just 7 of 23 attempts on 3rd down and saw Houston score the game-winning touchdown with 11 seconds to go. The loss ultimately shouldn’t impact the Bulls dramatically as they could still be the nation’s top Group of 5 squad if they manage to win out, knocking off two top contenders for that spot with wins over UCF and Memphis in consecutive weeks.
Philip Montgomery took over a Tulsa team that went 2-10 in 2014 and brought the Hurricane to bowl games the past two seasons. Tulsa finished 10-3 last season after winning the Miami Beach Bowl but the program has circled back this season with a 2-8 record and still has a pair of difficult games remaining.
Tulsa took on a tough non-conference draw facing Oklahoma State, Toledo, and New Mexico to account for three losses and five of the team’s eight losses have come by 10 or fewer points. Replacing Dane Evans at quarterback has proven to be a challenge with Evans in training camp with the Eagles before signing to play in the CFL.
Sophomore Chad President led the way early in the season as mostly a running quarterback as he has thrown for only 809 yards on 127 attempts. In recent weeks redshirt freshman Luke Skipper has been leading the offense with much more success in the passing game. Evans threw for 32 touchdowns last season while President and Skipper have combined for just five passing touchdowns this season as the Hurricane primarily have leaned on the ground game.
Tulsa is gaining 5.1 yards per rush this season to net nearly 2,500 rushing years led by senior D’Angelo Brewer who is a yard short of 1,100 rushing yards. Normally a team that runs the ball as well as Tulsa makes for a promising heavy underdog but Tulsa’s run defense checks in at 128th in the nation allowing 5.8 yards per rush. South Florida is allowing just 3.3 yards per rush, 12th nationally to illustrate a key reason for the contrasting records between these teams.
The irony in the results this season is that one of Tulsa’s two wins came 45-17 against the Houston team that handed South Florida its only loss. Turnovers played a role but Tulsa rallied from a 10-0 deficit to knock off the Cougars for a result that has allowed Memphis to take control of the AAC West.
Historical Trends:
These programs have only met once with a 38-30 win for South Florida at Tulsa in 2014, playing as a slight road favorite.
Tulsa is on a 12-6 ATS run as an underdog of 20 or more points and for comparison’s sake, when it opened the season at national power Oklahoma State, Tulsa was just +19½ in September.
Tulsa is on a 31-21 ATS run as a road underdog since 2002 including going 10-3 ATS since 2015 under Montgomery.
South Florida is 10-3 ATS as a home favorite since 2015, going 3-2 ATS this season.
South Florida is 2-3 ATS this season when favored by 20 or more points and 5-8 ATS in that role going back to early 2011.