College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, December 13

Army vs. Navy Betting Preview and Pick
By: Ryan Mercier
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS – It's a rivalry game. It's a Saturday afternoon game. Frankly, it's the only game. With the 2014 college football regular season all but in the past, the classic matchup between Army and Navy is the last FBS contest before bowl season begins. Navy is heavily favored on Saturday to add onto its 12-game winning streak over Army (3 p.m. ET, CBS).

The Line: Navy -14.5, Total: 57.5

Line movement: Navy opened as a 14-point favorite at The Wynn and CG Technology last Sunday, with the latter moving to -15 later the same day and the former going to -14.5 on Monday. There's been a nearly-even split of 14.5s and 15s around Las Vegas throughout the week.

Totals have been coming down, opening in the 59.5, 60 range and sitting 57, 57.5 late in the week. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: Navy is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games against a team with a losing record. ...Army is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall. ...The OVER is 4-0 in Navy's last four games overall, but the UNDER is 8-3 in Navy's last 11 neutral-site games. ...The OVER is 5-1 in Army's last six games overall, but the UNDER is 6-1 in its last seven neutral site games. ...The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and the favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Navy's outlook: There are no secrets when a team prepares to play the Midshipmen. Navy is going to run, run some more, and then run again. Behind quarterback Keenan Reynolds, this potent attack ranks second in the nation in rushing yards per game with 357.8. Georgia Southern is the only team ranked higher.

Reynolds has thrown for only five touchdowns, three interceptions and 749 yards all year. His completion percentage of 44.8 really illustrates what Navy likes to do on the offensive side of the ball.

In the first half of October, this unit really hit its stride. Navy started the year with six straight UNDERs and its scoring high was 35 during the span. The Midshipmen were 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread. Ever since losing to Air Force, though, the offense exploded, scoring as high as 52 with the low being 39.

Coming into this clash on Saturday, Navy is 4-1 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread in its last five games. A contest against VMI was not on the board. This recent stretch also includes going OVER for four straight games.

In its last time out, Navy failed to cover against South Alabama, aptly shortened to USA, as a 7-point favorite but did win 42-40. The Midshipmen are on their way to the Poinsettia Bowl, where they are about 2.5-point dogs to San Diego State.

In this series, Navy has completely dominated. However, in Vegas, Army has covered three of the last five meetings.

Army's outlook: Army can run, too. Just like Navy, the Black Knights are not shy about it, either. Army ranks sixth in the country with 305.5 yards per game. However, the quarterback play is actually worse.

While Angel Santiago has a higher completion percentage than Reynolds, he has only 68 attempts, one touchdown and one interception the entire season. Unlike Navy, the leading rusher is not the quarterback, but rather running back Larry Dixon.

Army did not cover a road game this season but did manage to win outright on a neutral field against UConn as a 4.5-point underdog.

The Black Knights also have revenge on Saturday. Yes, they obviously have 12 years’ worth of revenge but in 2011 and 2012 Army kept it close and covered. Last year, Navy crushed Army 34-7 as a 13.5-point favorite.

Like Navy, Army comes in on an OVER streak with three in a row. However, the history is hard to ignore with eight straight meetings falling UNDER, and this total is much higher than usual.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the low 40s are expected at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers lean: Army has covered just four spreads this season, all of which have been in the 2.5 to 4.5 range, either as a favorite or a dog. When the Black Knights are expected to lose big, they usually do, failing to get the cash against Western Kentucky (+7) and Stanford (+28.5). They couldn't even win outright as a 14-point favorite at Yale. Navy, meanwhile, covered as 13.5-point favorites in this matchup last season, and we expect the far superior team to win the money again Saturday.

We also have a lean to the UNDER, as eight straight in this series have failed to exceed the total, and this is the highest number for an Army/Navy game since '07.

Navy -14.5 and UNDER 57.5 are the plays.

AccuScore Forecast 115th Army-Navy Game
By: Rohit Ghosh
AccuScore.com

Army and Navy match up against one another for the 115th time Saturday in Maryland (3 p.m. ET, CBS). As the only FBS college football game scheduled this week, all eyes will be on a rivalry that has been largely one-sided recently. Navy has won the last 12 meetings. At the time of publication, Navy was listed as -700 money-line favorites by several Las Vegas betting shops, implying an 87.5 percent chance of winning the game outright. Army is offered at +500. After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore gives Navy a 71 percent chance of winning. Based on AccuScore data, Navy would be at about -250 on the money-line.

Both AccuScore and Vegas have Navy as overwhelming favorites. The payout, though, clearly isn't very favorable, and it's hard to recommend laying -700.

While Army has just 29 percent chance to win the game, a gambler can't be faulted for taking a shot on the +500 money-line odds.

The average simulated score is Navy 34, Army 24, and there's a 58.5 percent chance Army covers as a 15-point underdogs.

Both sides average the same number of turnovers in simulations.

The biggest indicator to Navy's success this season has been QB Keenan Reynolds. Earlier in the season, he struggled and so did the entire team. Following a sub-par 2-4 start, however, Reynolds got in a groove and led Navy to a 4-1 record in the next five. In those five matchups, Reynolds has thrown for 15 TDs and just one INT. Reynolds led them to a victory over Army in 2012, dominated them last year in the 34-7 victory and should be the best player on the field this weekend.

Game of the Day: Navy vs. Army
By Covers.com

Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights (+15, 57.5)

Is this finally Army's year? The Black Knights sure hope so as they look to end a 12-game losing streak against the rival Navy Midshipmen in their annual encounter in Baltimore. The 115th meeting between the storied foes sees Army looking to end a difficult season on a positive note, having won two of its previous three games coming in; the Midshipmen have more at stake in this one, as it will serve as a tuneup to a Dec. 23 bowl date with San Diego State.

It looked like Army and Navy might share the same fate midway through the season, but the Midshipmen have won four of their last five games - losing only to nationally-ranked Notre Dame over that span - to surge into the Poinsettia Bowl against the Aztecs in hostile San Diego. Navy has scored at least 39 points in each of its past five games and ranks second in the nation at 357.8 rushing yards per game. Army ranks sixth at 305.5 yards on the ground.

LINE HISTORY: Navy has held steady as a 15-point favorite. The total opened at 60.5 but has since dropped three points.

INJURY REPORT: Navy - G Patrick Forrestal (leg), S Lonnie Richardson (concussion) and G Cam Henson (undisclosed) are out. LB James Britton (foot) is questionable. Army - OL Justin Gilbert (knee) is out. DB Geoffery Bacon (ankle) is questionable.

WEATHER REPORT: Temperatures at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing northwest across the length of the field at 10 mph.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We haven’t seen a lot of movement in the spread, fluctuating a half point either way since opening at -15, and the action is mostly split. The total, however, has dropped a full four points and more than 85 percent of our wagers are on the under. Perhaps the expectance of a chess match between
two run-focused offenses has prompted players to grab the under." John Lester, senior lines manager at bookmaker.eu.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Classic rivalry matchup concludes the regular season with Army looking to snap a 12-game series losing skid. The Cadets are much improved under first year had coach Jeff Monken with four wins this year - their best effort since 2010. Pronlem has lost 13 games in a row (1-12 ATS) in games off a win. On the flip side, Navy enters with a bowl bid in its back pocket. With a pair of rushing juggernauts going head-to-head, look for another low scoring military game." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

ABOUT NAVY (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U): The Midshipmen were led by fleet quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who was a QB in name only - the 5-11 junior rushed for 1,082 yards and an eye-popping 20 touchdowns while passing for just five. He had plenty of help on the ground; 10 different Navy players recorded a rushing touchdown, while nine had at least 100 yards on the ground on the season and 18 players registered at least one carry. Jamir Tillman led the receiving corps with 18 receptions for 338 yards and two scores; no other player had more than nine catches.

ABOUT ARMY (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, 7-4 O/U): The roll call of Black Knights rushing threats isn't quite as long as that of the Midshipmen, but Army can also pound the ball with the best of them. Larry Dixon led the way with 1,012 rushing yards and nine scores, while quarterback Angel Santiago chipped in 793 yards on the ground and a team-best 10 TDs. The passing game was virtually nonexistent, with Santiago, A.J. Schurr and receiver Joe Walker combining to go 48-for-98 for 710 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions on the season.

TRENDS:

* Navy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory.
* Army is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 8-1 in the Midshipmen's last nine November games.
* Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Navy has a slim edge among Covers users, garnering 51.77 percent of the vote at -15.

Army meets Navy
By Sportsbook.ag

ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (4-7) vs. NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (6-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Navy -15, Total: 56.5

In one of the longest running rivalries in sports, Army and Navy will meet for the 115th time on Saturday afternoon.

The Midshipmen had a rough start to the year with a record of 2-4 (both SU and ATS) over their first six games, but have turned it around since that time with a 4-1 SU record (3-2 ATS) leading up to this contest. Over those five games, they have defeated their opponents by an average of 20.5 PPG and suffered their one loss against Notre Dame by a score of 49-39 as 14-point underdogs. Their most recent contest came against South Alabama on the road as 7.5-point favorites on Nov. 28 and they narrowly avoided an upset after outscoring the Jaguars 42-40. Navy tallied 430 yards of offense in the victory while getting 388 yards (7.2 YPC) from its triple-option offense, but also turned the ball over three times.

The Black Knights have had a forgettable 2014 campaign while going 4-7 (both SU and ATS) while winning two of their past three games. They were able to beat both 5-point favorite Connecticut by a score of 35-21, and 3.5-point favorite Fordham on Nov. 22 with a 42-31 victory. Army was actually outgained 471-430 against the Rams, as the team totaled 382 yards on the ground and had no turnovers for the second straight game. The Knights have been great at protecting the football with a mere six turnovers in the past eight games played. This rivalry has been dominated by Navy, which is 15-7 (both SU and ATS) since 1992, while winning in each of the past 12 meetings by an average of 22.3 PPG.

Last year, the Midshipmen rolled to a big 34-7 win as 13.5-point favorites as they had 343 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and held Army to a mere 207 total offensive yards. Some interesting trends to keep an eye on in this one include that the Black Knights are 1-12 ATS (8%) after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards in the past three seasons, but they are 3-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog in the same timeframe. There are no significant injuries to watch going into this game.

Just like its counterpart in this one, Army has a strong rushing offense and has averaged 305.5 YPG on the ground (6th in FBS) while being the worst team in the nation in passing (64.5 YPG), but have scored a respectable 26.3 PPG. QB Angel Santiago (488 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) has had double-digit passing attempts in just three games this year and has eclipsed 100 passing yards only once. He is expected to control the offense with his legs and has 793 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) with 10 TDs this year while reaching 100 yards twice. HB Larry Dixon (1,012 rush yards, 9 TD) has been the top option in this offense and has gained more than 110 rushing yards four times this season. He has improved his performance over the past two games while averaging 136.5 YPG with a total of four touchdowns.

There is really no big threat in the receiving game, as WR Edgar Poe (199 yards, 1 TD) leads the team with 10 catches. The Black Knights defense has been one of the worst in college football while allowing opponents to put up 34.4 PPG against them, and could be in trouble against the Navy triple-option as they give up 191.9 rushing YPG. LB Jeremy Timpf (102 tackles, 3 INT, 14 TFL) has done his best to help this unit improve but will need some serious help to contend in this one.

The Midshipmen have always been known for their devotion to the triple-option and that has helped them to the second-best rushing offense in the nation (357.8 YPG) while they put up just 87.6 YPG through the air (2nd-worst in FBS), all leading to 34.5 PPG (33rd in nation). QB Keenan Reynolds (749 pass yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) is expected to do little in the passing game, as he has just 10.7 attempts per game while surpassing 100 yards only three times in his nine games. While he is not much of a passer, he leads the team in rushing with 1,082 yards (5.3 YPC) and 20 TD while gaining more than 250 yards on the ground in two of the past four contests. Besides Reynolds, both HBs Noah Copeland (859 rush yards, 5 TDs) and Chris Swain (574 rush yards, 4 TDs) have led the way running the ball. Copeland has gone into triple-digit rushing yards five times this year, and is coming off a solid performance in last week’s win over South Alabama with 112 rushing yards and 2 TD.

WR Jamir Tillman (338 rec yards, 2 TD) is the only player on the team with double-digit receptions (18) while having just one game with more than 70 receiving yards. The defense for this program has been poor while allowing 29.9 PPG to their opponents, and ranks 86th in the nation while giving up 426.2 YPG of total offense. LBs Jordan Drake (85 tackles) and Daniel Gonzales (73 tackles, 2 INT) lead the team on this side of the ball, and will be leaned greatly on to keep the Army rushing attack in check.

Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Army Black vs. Navy Preview
Atssportsline.com

The Navy Midshipmen (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U) have dominated their series against Army over the last decade. They take on the Army Black Knights (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, 7-4 O/U) in the 115th edition from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday at 3pmET

Last game: (12/14/13): Navy (-13.5) over Army, 34-7 (from Philadelphia)

Weather: Partly sunny. Northwest wind: 7-12. Gametime temperature: 44. Wind chill: 39.

Key College Football Trends

Army is
3-7 ATS last 10 overall.
6-20 ATS last 26 following an ATS win.
4-10 ATS last 14 conference games.
4-14 last 18 matchups on the under bet following a bye week.

Navy is
8-2 ATS last 10 following a SU win.
Favorite is 9-4 ATS last 13 games in series.
0-7 last 7 matchups on the under bet in series.

Outlook

Army comes into this historic matchup after a rare win, as they beat FCS team Fordham, 42-31 on Nov. 22 as a 3.5-point underdog. They've won two of three, including a wind over Connecticut. A loss to Air Force at home, 23-6, basically eliminated them from the Commanders-in-Chief Trophy. Army's rushing attack ranks fifth in the nation with 305.5 yards per game. Just like Navy, they run an option attack and that means they rarely throw the ball (so this will be a fast game). Army averages just 64.5 yards per game passing. Quarterback Angel Santiago has completed 51.5 percent of his passes with one TD and one pick. He has 182 runs for 793 yards and 10 touchdowns. Larry Dixon leads the way with 1,028 yards and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on 177 attempts. On defense, Jeremy Timpf leads the Knights in tackles with 102 and also adds 14.0 tackles for loss. Josh Jenkins (60 tackles) and Chris Carnegie (51 tackles) have combined with Timpf to add 10 interceptions. But Army allows 252.5 yard per game in the air and 192.5 yards per game on the ground.

Navy goes bowling again as they'll meet San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23 from San Diego. They've won 12 straight in this series and should make it 13 if they don't overlook a feisty Army squad. They last played on Nov. 28 when they beat South Alabama on the road, 42-40. Navy is led by record-setting quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who has thrown five touchdowns with just three picks this season. He runs the triple-option, setting an NCAA record for rushing scores by a quarterback with 60. He also set the NCAA record for the most games (12) with at least three rushing TDs. The Midshipmen lead the nation in rushing with 357.8 yards per game. Reynolds leads the way with 1,082 yards on 205 carries. Noah Copeland adds 78.1 yards per game and better than eight yards per carry with five TDs. Reynolds top target is Jamir Tillman, who leads with 18 catches for 338 yards. Like Army, Navy's defense is their biggest weakness. They allow 426.2 yards per game and 199.8 on the ground. Jordan Drake leads the team with 85 tackles, while Parrish Gaines has three interceptions. Bernard Sarra also has three blocked kicks. Navy also leads the nation with 2.27 penalties and 23.4 yards per game. College Football Odds: Navy is a 15-point betting odds favorite. Total: 57.5.

ATSSportsline.com has been providing winning sports picks since 1992. Want more from ATS Consultants? Click Free Picks to get daily winners delivered directly to your inbox with no obligation!

NCAAF Knowledge

Navy hasn't lost to Army since 2001, winning 12 in row, but Cadets are 3-2 vs spread in last five meetings. Army is 4-7 even with playing pair of I-AA teams (lost 49-43 to Yale); they're 1-4 as underdogs this year- their last four losses are all by 17+ points. Navy scored 39+ points in each of last five games, winning four, running for 336+ yards in all five games; they also allowed 31+ points three of last four games. Army is 15-41 passing TOTAL in its last five games. This game is in Baltimore, where Middies opened season with 34-17 loss to Ohio State.

Armadillosports.com