College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, September 9th, 2016

NCAAF Week 2

Maryland is 3-2 as road favorite since 2010; Terps (-20) won last meeting with FIU 43-10 back in 2013, outgaining Panthers 576-171. FIU lost 34-10 to Big 14’s Indiana LW, outgained 486-331; IU ran ball for 246 yards. FIU is 6-8 as a home dog under Turner. FIU’s QB has 24 career starts- their whole OL from LY is back. big 14 teams are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 games vs C-USA teams.

Louisville is 4-2 as road favorite under Petrino, but in 11-25-1 in last 37 games as double digit favorite. Syracuse was 40-46/437 passing in an easy win over I-AA Colgate. Louisville scored 70 points LW despite three turnovers; they won five of last six games with Syracuse, covering three of last four; Cardinals are 4-2 in last six visits to Carrier Dome (dogs 5-1 vs spread).

Armadillosports.com

ACC Report - Week 2
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Louisville at Syracuse

The Cardinals look to build upon their 70-14 spanking of Charlotte in the opener. QB Lamar Jackson figured in on eight touchdowns, including six TD strikes, in only one half of work to set conference and school records. The Orange also had a solid performance, opening with a 33-7 win over Colgate, an upper-echelon FCS squad to make head coach Dino Babers successful in his Syracuse debut. Head coach Bobby Petrino has never lost in five tries against the Orange, and Louisville is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. However, the Orange enter as more than a two-touchdown underdog, and the 'dog is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings between these sides.

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Maryland at Florida International

Week 2 gets started on Friday this week with the NFL taking center stage on Thursday night. The action begins at 7:30 p.m. Eastern when Florida International welcomes Maryland from out of the Big Ten to South Florida. CBS Sports Network will provide the telecast.

As of Thursday, most betting shops had Maryland (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) installed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 56.5 points for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Panthers were listed at +330 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130). For first-half bets, the Terrapins were favored by six with a total of 28.5.

D.J. Durkin’s team cruised to a 52-13 win over Howard as a 50-point home favorite last Saturday. Six different Maryland players ran for touchdowns as it raced out to a 35-0 lead at intermission. Perry Hills, the senior QB who had a miserable 17/20 career touchdown-to-interception ratio coming into the season, completed 14-of-19 passes for 126 yards without a TD or an INT. The Terps had an atrocious -18 overall plus/minus in the turnovers department in 2015, so Durkin had to be pleased to get out of the opener without committing any turnovers. All six of those players who ran for TDs had at least four carries and 40 rushing yards. The Terps rushed for 315 yards on 44 totes, averaging 7.2 yards per carry.

Maryland brought back seven starters on offense and five on defense from a ’15 squad that finished 3-9.

FIU (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) dropped a 34-13 decision to Indiana last Thursday as a 10-point home underdog. The 47 combined points went ‘under’ the 64-point number. The Hoosiers suspended a slew of players before last week’s opener, and they went into the fourth quarter trailing the Panthers by a 13-12 count. However, IU dominated the final stanza by a 22-0 score to secure the win and spread cover.

FIU killed itself with three turnovers, including a pair of pick-sixes thrown by junior QB Alex McGough, who had a 21/8 TD-INT ratio in ’15. McGough completed 23-of-46 passes against IU for 263 yards, but he was intercepted three times and didn’t throw a TD pass. The Panthers also had a punt blocked for a safety, so they basically handed the Hoosiers 16 points.

FIU running back Alex Gardner rushed for only 23 yards on 10 carries, but he did have a one-yard TD plunge. He also had seven receptions for 70 yards. WR Jonnu Smith had eight receptions for 83 yards against IU.

Ron Turner has a 10-27 record since arriving at FIU, but we should note that his teams have improved each year with win totals of one, four and five as he goes into Year 4. The Panthers returned nine starters on offense and five on defense from the ’15 team that finished 5-7 SU and 5-5-2 versus the number.

FIU has been a home underdog 15 times during Turner’s tenure, producing a 6-9 spread record.

Maryland didn’t have any road ‘chalk’ situations last season. During Randy Edsall’s five-year tenure, the Terps went 2-2 ATS in their four games as road favorites.

According to weather.com, the forecast in Miami on Friday night calls for variable clouds and scattered thunderstorms, with a 40 percent chance of rain and a low temperature of 78 degrees.

Louisville at Syracuse

The Dino Babers Era began in Week 1 with Syracuse (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) winning a 33-7 decision over Colgate as a 23.5-point home favorite last Friday. Sophomore quarterback Eric Dungey led the way by completing 34-of-40 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Amba Etta-Tawo, a grad transfer from Maryland making his debut for the Orange, shined with 12 receptions for 210 yards and one TD. Junior Ervin Phillips had 14 catches for 87 yards and one TD, while true freshman Moe Neal rushed for 68 yards and one TD on just nine carries.

We should note that Colgate was ranked No. 16 in the preseason FCS rankings and dropped to No. 20 following the loss at Syracuse.

Syracuse dominated on both sides of the ball with a 554-143 advantage in total offense and a 25-11 lead in first downs.

Babers left Bowling Green to take the Syracuse gig after leading the Falcons to records of 8-6 (after his starting QB went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1) and 10-4. In ’15, Babers’ offense scored points at a 42.2 points-per-game clip and the Falcons won the MAC Championship Game.

The ‘Cuse finished ’15 with a 4-8 SU record, but it did produce profit for its backers with an excellent 8-4 ledger ATS. The Orange returned 16 starters, eight on each side of the ball.

Louisville (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) smashed Charlotte by a 70-14 count in its opener last Thursday, easily cashing tickets as a 38.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Bobby Petrino’s squad raced out to a 56-0 lead at halftime and coasted to the finish line. Lamar Jackson, the sophomore QB, connected on 17-of-23 throws for 286 yards and six TDs without an interception. Jackson also rushed 11 times for 119 yards and a pair of scores. Not bad for just one half of work for Jackson, although Petrino said, “Should have been nine [TDs].” Eight different U of L players caught TD passes, as back-up QB Kyle Bolin had a pair of TD throws as well.

Jackson started seven games as a true freshman last season, rushing for a team-best 960 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.9 YPC. Jackson completed 54.7 percent of his passes for 1,840 yards with a 12/8 TD-INT ratio. All 10 of his top pass catchers returned, as did the squad’s six leading rushers. Jamari Staples and James Quick are the best of the wideouts. The duo combined to grab 76 receptions for 1,262 yards and eight TDs in ’15.

When these schools met at Papa John’s Stadium in Louisville last season, U of L captured a 41-17 win as a 14-point home favorite. The ‘Cuse actually had a 10-7 lead before throwing a pick-six with 5:42 remaining in the second quarter. Bolin threw for 362 yards and three TDs, while RB Brandon Radcliff rushed 10 times for 117 yards. TE Cole Hikutini had three receptions for 28 yards and two TDs. In the losing effort, Dungey completed just 15-of-30 passes for 158 yards without a TD and two interceptions. U of L had a 579-286 advantage in total offense.

As of Thursday, most spots had Louisville listed as a 15-point road favorite with a total of 69 points. The Orange were at +500 to win outright (risk $100 to win $500). For first-half plays, U of L was favored by eight of 8.5 with a total of 35.

As road favorites during Petrino’s second tour of duty with the Cardinals, they have compiled a 4-2 spread record. Meanwhile, Syracuse went 4-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2015.

Louisville finished ’15 with an 8-5 SU record and a 7-6 ATS mark. The Cardinals started the year with three consecutive one-possession defeats vs. Auburn (31-24 at the Ga. Dome), vs. Houston (34-31) and vs. Clemson (20-17). They won seven of their nine regular-season contests to earn an invite to the Music City Bowl to face Texas A&M. The Aggies saw their top two QBs transfer out before the bowl game, leaving them playing with their third-string signal caller. U of L took advantage and won a 27-21 decision as a 3.5-point favorite.

U of L brought back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. The ‘D’ is led by LB Keith Kelsey, a first-team All-ACC selection in ’15 when he had 107 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 8.5 TFL’s. A pair of transfers bring a lot more punch to this unit, former Georgia LB Josh Harvey-Clemson and former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields. The former TCU defensive end garnered those honors as a freshman. Fields had 10.5 sacks, 11.5 TFL’s and 10 QB hurries for U of L last year.

Petrino posted a 41-9 record from 2003-2006 as Louisville’s head coach. In his final year, the Cardinals went 12-1, won the Orange Bowl and finished fifth in the nation in the AP Rankings. Petrino, who spent most of that four-year stretch flirting with more than a half-dozen schools (and the Raiders), finally found the gig he wanted and left for the Atlanta Falcons, who at the time were led by Michael Vick. A few months later, Vick was arrested for the dog-fighting fiasco and Petrino was left with Joey Harrington as a QB and looking for his quickest route out of town. After Week 13, he bolted to accept the head-coaching job at Arkansas. Things went well in Fayetteville – until they didn’t anymore. His motorcycle wreck and extramarital turmoil prompted his dismissal from Arkansas. Then after a year off, he was hired by Western Kentucky, only to leave the Hilltoppers to return to Louisville after one season. Since being back, Petrino has compiled an 18-9 record, but U of L now plays in the ACC rather than the Big East.

Louisville junior WR Ja’Quay Savage is ‘questionable’ at Syracuse with a shoulder injury. Savage had 12 receptions for 135 yards and one TD last season.

Syracuse will be without senior RB George Morris (ankle) and senior CB Wayne Morgan (undisclosed) due to injuries. Morris rushed for 326 yards while averaging 4.9 YPC in ’15. Morgan had 16 tackles and two passes broken up last year.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

North Carolina’s defensive line depth will be hurting again Saturday at Illinois. Tyler Powell and Dajaun Drennon are both out indefinitely. Drennon, a junior DE, started 24 games as a freshman and sophomore and had 39 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3.5 TFL’s, and three QB hurries last season. Powell had 23 tackles in ’15. The Tar Heels, who are eight-point road favorites, throttled the Illini by a 48-14 count as eight-point home ‘chalk’ last year.

Western Kentucky senior RB Leon Allen is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Allen rushed for 1,542 yards and 13 TDs for the Hilltoppers in 2014. He was injured in WKU’s second game of last season and missed the rest of the year. Jeff Brohm’s squad is a 28.5-point underdog Saturday at Alabama.

Florida will be looking for its 30th consecutive win over Kentucky on Saturday afternoon at The Swamp. The Gators currently hold the NCAA’s longest active head-to-head winning streak thanks to Temple ending Penn State’s 31-game win streak over the Owls in ’15. UF is a 16.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats, who blew a 35-10 lead in last week’s 44-35 home loss to Southern Miss.

Late reports out of Athens on Thursday night indicated that true freshman QB Jacob Eason has been named the starter for Saturday’s home game vs. Nicholls. In his collegiate debut, Easton completed 8-of-12 throws for 131 yards and one TD without an interception in relief of Greyson Lambert. Most important, UGA stud RB Nick Chubb looked like his old self by rushing for 222 yards and two TDs on 32 carries against UNC.

Friday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Louisville at Syracuse
By Covers.com

Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange (+14.5, 70.0)

Louisville's season could not have started any better, particularly for sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson. After a record-setting season debut, Jackson aims to lead the 15th-ranked Cardinals to a win in their ACC opener on Friday against host Syracuse.

Jackson accounted for eight touchdowns - including six TD passes - in only one half of last week's 70-14 victory against Charlotte. Both of those marks tied ACC records and set new school records, prompting coach Bobby Petrino to say afterward: "It was nice to get everybody involved. He read the coverage and delivered the ball, and let the players make the plays for you." Syracuse, meanwhile, is coming off a 33-7 triumph against Colgate in the first game under new coach Dino Babers, formerly of Bowling Green. "I think they look good," Petrino said of the Orange. "They're very well coached. You know, even when we go back and watch the Bowling Green film, they do a really good job of coaching what their schemes are, and their players play hard. So I've got a lot of respect for their coaching staff."

LINE HISTORY: The point spread for this Friday night matchup opened with Louisville as 14-point favorites on Sunday afternoon. The line quickly jumped to 14.5 and has been steady at that number for the entire week. The total hit the board at 65.5 and has taken a steady and dramatic rise up to the current number of 70. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Louisville (-15) - Syracuse (-4.7) + home field (-3) = Louisville -7.3

INJURY REPORT:

Louisville - WR J. Savage (Questionable Friday, shoulder), CB C. Sturghill (Out For Season, foot).

Syracuse - CB W. Morgan (Questionable Friday, undisclosed), RB G. Morris II (Out Indefinitely, ankle).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The early money is coming in on Louisville at 3-1, which ended up pushing the line from 14.5 to 15 Wednesday night. As a more than a 2 touchdown dog at home, there is value in betting Syracuse, and I expect the sharp action to come in on them at 15." - Lines Manager at GTBets.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U): After racking up 663 yards of total offense and holding Charlotte to 0-of-13 third-down conversions in Week 1, Louisville is simply hoping to maintain its high level of play this week. The Cardinals led 56-0 at halftime, and 16 different players ended up catching a pass as the team posted its largest margin of victory in a season opener since 2007. Jackson has led Louisville to a touchdown on each of his last 13 drives, dating back to last season, and also is a threat on the ground, rushing for 100 yards in six of his 13 career games.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Eric Dungey delivered 355 passing yards and two touchdowns against Colgate while combining with Zack Mahoney to complete 40-of-46 passes on the day. Amba Etta-Tawo totaled 210 receiving yards and a score - more than twice as many catches as the senior had all of last season with Maryland. On the downside, Jordan Fredericks - who led the team with 607 rushing yards in 2015 - was limited to 10 yards on the ground against Colgate.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Orange are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Over is 5-1 in Orange last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is strongly supporting the favorites from Louisville in this contest at a rate of 66 percent. Over is picking up more of the totals wagers by a slim margin at 52 percent.

Friday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Louisville Cardinals (1-0 SU; 1-0 ATS) vs. Syracuse Orange (1-0 SU; 1-0 ATS)

It was a highly entertaining opening weekend of college football as we saw a little bit of everything. There were massive blowouts, back-and-forth OT games, huge upsets – with two of those being Top 5 teams. If Week 1 was any indicator of how the rest of the 2016 CFB season will play out, college football bettors will have their hands full this year as we will see tremendous competition the entire way.

Week 2 kicks off on Friday, and two ACC rivals that were on the right side of massive blowouts meet. Louisville, off their 70-14 drubbing of Charlotte, heads into Syracuse, New York to take on an Orange team that won 33-7 in their opener.

Louisville (-14.5) vs. Syracuse (+14.5)

There wasn't much Louisville could do wrong in their opener as QB Lamar Jackson set a record with 8 TD's in the first half en route to a 56-0 lead at the break. It was smooth sailing from there for the Cardinals as the reserves saw plenty of the field, and that experience could end up paying dividends down the road. This week will be much tougher for Louisville as they aren't likely to dominate from start to finish like they did last week (Louisville held Charlotte to 0-for-13 on 3rd down), but they are expected to win handily given this double digit spread they are laying on the road.

Syracuse's 33-7 win wasn't nearly as impressive, but QB Eric Dungey was a stellar 34-for-40 and 355 yards throwing the ball. He and the rest of the Orange will need to be able to conjure up a similar performance this week if they want to have a chance at pulling off the huge upset.

Louisville has dominated this rivalry recently with a 28-6 win in 2014 and a 41-17 win last season. You'd have to go back to 2012 to find the last time Syracuse beat the Cardinals (45-26), but Syracuse was a much better team then and only +1 point dogs in that matchup. Things are much different this time around, but we could still see the same ATS winner at the window.

That's because this is a very tough scheduling spot for Louisville in Week 2. They are coming off a dominant performance where nearly everything went right for them and now have to go on the road to a tough environment as double-digit favorites with a HUGE game on deck. Next week Louisville hosts #4 Florida State and after listening to all the praise this week after Week 1's dominance, it's going to be nearly impossible for Louisville to not look past Syracuse here and ahead to that game vs the Seminoles. 14.5 points is a lot to lay on the road for any team, and the Orange do have a reputation for being tough outs at home when getting these kind of points early in the year.

It was Week 4 last year when Syracuse were 23.5-point home underdogs to LSU and did enough to keep that one close in a 34-24 loss. Two year's ago it was Florida State's turn to visit Syracuse as 23-point road favorites and the Orange kept that one within the number as well (38-20 L). There is a history here with the Orange being able to play some of their best football against elite opponents, and with the underdog being 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two schools, and the big Louisville/Florida State game on deck, grabbing the points with the home dog is the play.

Take Syracuse +14.5