Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, March 3, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Saturday’s NBA
Magic won three of last four games with Memphis; Grizzlies are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here, four of which went over total. Memphis lost its last ten games; they’re 3-6 in last nine games as road underdogs. four of last six series games went over. Orlando lost seven of their last eight games; they’re 1-8 vs spread as home favorites this year. Six of their last ten games stayed under.
Cleveland won six of last eight games with Denver; last three series games went over. Nuggets are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Ohio. Denver won 8 of its last 11 games; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as road underdogs. Nine of their last ten games went over. Cavaliers won six of their last nine games; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as home favorites. Four of their last five games stayed under.
Detroit/Miami split their last ten games; Pistons are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to South Beach. Six of last seven series games went over total. Detroit lost seven of its last nine games; they are 1-7 in last eight games as road underdogs. Under is 3-1-3 in their last seven games. Heat lost seven of their last ten games; they’re 3-6 in last nine games as home favorites. Eight of their last ten games went over.
Rockets won six of last nine games with Boston; last ten series games stayed under the total. Celtics are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Houston. Boston won its last four games; they’re 9-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Rockets won their last 14 games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
Lakers won last two games with San Antonio, after losing previous eight meetings; LA is 2-2-1 vs spread in last five visits to the Alamo. Seven of last nine series games went over. Lakers won their last four games, are 10-6 in last 16 games as road favorites. Over is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. San Antonio lost seven of its last nine games; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as home favorites. Eight of their last ten games went over.
Road team won six of last seven Utah-Sacramento games; Jazz 4-2 vs spread in last six visits to Sacramento. Four of last six series games stayed under. Utah won 12 of its last 14 games; they’re 4-6 as road favorites. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Kings lost seven of their last nine games; they’re 2-7 in last nine games as home underdogs. Over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.
Portland won six of its last seven games with Oklahoma City; Thunder is 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. Six of last nine series games went over total. OKC won five of its last six games; they’re 5-3 as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games went over total. Blazers won their last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 6-2 in last eight games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.
Game of the Night - Boston (44-19 SU, 37-24-2 ATS) at Houston (48-13 SU, 32-28-1 ATS)
Opening Odds: Rockets -7 ½, Total 217
It’s been just over two months since Boston pulled off an improbable comeback and defeated Houston 99-98 on Dec. 28 from TD Garden. The Celtics trailed by as many as 26 points and wound up winning as two-point home underdogs on a hook shot from All-Star Al Horford. Prior to his game-winner, Marcus Smart of the Celtics drew not one but two offensive fouls on James Harden of the Rockets as they were trying to close out the game.
Houston and Harden felt like they got jobbed by the refs and they certainly had a fair argument. One official missed the game with a sore back which left two guys to officiate the game on their own.
"You can't have two officials in a professional game," Harden said. "There was a lot of no-calls that needed to be called because it changed the dynamic of the game. You got fast-break points, no calls, turnovers or whatever the case may be. This is a professional game on national TV. It can't happen."
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Along with one less official, bettors should note that the Rockets were also without Chris Paul and Clint Capela due to injuries. Those guys have been a huge part of Houston’s success this season and the club has produced an eye-opening 32-1 record when the aforementioned duo is in the lineup with Harden.
The Rockets enter this game with a 14-game winning streak and they’ve covered all four of their wins since the All-Star break.
Boston has also gone 4-0 (3-1 ATS) since the break and that’s a good sign considering Brad Stevens and company closed the first-half with a 1-4 record. The defense (103.5 PPG) has looked a tad better during the winning streak and closer to their season average, 99.9 points per game, which is ranked 2nd best in the NBA.
The unit will be tested against Houston’s second-ranked scoring offense (113.8 PPG) on Saturday but Boston will have plenty of confidence to counter the juggernaut. In three games against the top two-scoring attacks this season, they held the Warriors to 88 and 109 points and mentioned above, Houston was kept in check as well.
That defensive effort in late December wasn’t an anomaly for the Celtics and they appear to have Houston’s number. Since Stevens started coaching the Celtics in 2013, the club has held Houston to 102.3 PPG. Make a note that while Houston is known for its offense, the scoring defense has improved vastly this season (104.9 PPG) compared to last year’s campaign (109.2 PPG).
Total bettors should note that the ‘under’ has gone 10-0-1 in the last 11 encounters in this series and Saturday’s number is low for Houston’s standards.
Some bettors might believe the point-spread on Houston is too high, especially when you look at its weak production for bettors at home (24-6 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) plus Boston has been a great on the road (21-8 SU, 20-9 ATS).
You certainly shouldn’t overlook those results but a lot of Houston’s struggles versus the spread have come from large numbers. Get this…the Rockets are 28-8 SU and 24-12 ATS (67%) this year when favored by nine points or less.
ABC will provide national coverage of this game at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Zero Days Rest
Six teams will be playing on no rest Saturday and listed below are their records when facing back-to-back spots this season and notable trends as well. Five of the six will be on the road with the exception of the Magic, who are playing the Grizzlies and they’re also facing two games in two days.
Memphis (3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-3-1 O/U) at Orlando: Two of the three wins for Memphis came on the road and they enter this game on a 5-1 ATS and ‘over’ run in their last six on no rest.
Orlando (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U) vs. Memphis: Only two of the Magic’s 10 back-to-back games were played at the Amway Center and they won and covered both contests by double digits.
Denver (3-8 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U) at Cleveland: The Nuggets are 1-5 in their last six on no rest, allowing an average of 112.3 PPG. The lone win (123-113) came at the Suns on Feb. 10.
Detroit (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-5-1 O/U) at Miami: Pistons have allowed 121, 118 and 123 in their last three games on zero days rest and not surprisingly they’ve gone 0-3 both SU and ATS.
Utah (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) at Sacramento: The Jazz have been one of the top clubs on no rest and they enter this game with a 4-0 run but make a note that all four of their losses in these situations came on the road.
Oklahoma City (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U) at Portland: The point-spread has not mattered in any of the 11 games for the Thunder, which could have you taking OKC on the money-line (+150) or having less hesitation to lay the short number with Portland (-4).
Fearless Predictions
Since I started this section, it’s safe to say that it’s treated us well lately even though Minnesota ran out of gas on Thursday at Portland. For new followers to the “Inside the Paint” installments, my handicapping technique always starts with the opening number before weighing heavily on current form, seasonal trends and situational spots. I believe if something looks too easy, it usually never is. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Over 227 ½ Denver-Cleveland
Even though the Cavs have watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 since the All-Star break, this matchup sets up perfect for their offense. Denver faces a back-to-back spot and its defense has been much worse on the road this season. The last three meetings in this series have gone ‘over’ and Cleveland has posted 124 and 125 in its last two home encounters against the Nuggets. If you don’t believe Denver will have the gas to keep up, the Cavs team total (116) seems more than doable.
Boston +8 over Houston
The Rockets have gone 18-5 SU and 9-13-1 ATS versus the East this season and that includes an 8-2 record at home. However, they’ve gone 1-8-1 against the spread in those 10 games and two of the losses came to Atlantic Division foes – the Raptors and 76ers. The Celtics are a respectable 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road against the West and the three losses were by a combined eight points. Houston certainly has the firepower to run anybody out of the gym but I’ll fade the public and back the better defense over the better offense in this spot. Grab the points and if you’re interested, get a small taste of the money-line as well (+280).
San Antonio (-4) over L.A. Lakers
No overnight line on this game due to the ‘doubtful’ status of LaMarcus Aldridge (ankle) but San Antonio opened -4 this morning. With or without him, I’d still lean to the home squad. The Lakers have once again managed to put together four straight wins but they’ve never won five in a row this season. Does that happen tonight? I’m saying “No” and even though the Spurs aren’t in great form (2-7 L9), there has to be a sense of urgency for this matchup and I can’t see them dropping four in a row at home. The Lakers have been shooting lights out and that’s been covering up their inferior defense. If those outside shots don’t fall, they could easily get run here.
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
NBA
Saturday, March 3
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Trend Report
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MEMPHIS @ ORLANDO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Memphis's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Orlando is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games
DENVER @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
DETROIT @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
BOSTON @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 11 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
LA LAKERS @ SAN ANTONIO
LA Lakers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games
San Antonio is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Lakers
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PORTLAND
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
UTAH @ SACRAMENTO
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Utah is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games
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Pro Basketball Long Sheet
MEMPHIS (18 - 43) at ORLANDO (19 - 43) - 3/3/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 3-2 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 3-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (34 - 28) at CLEVELAND (36 - 25) - 3/3/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 176-224 ATS (-70.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-36 ATS (-29.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-24 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT (29 - 33) at MIAMI (32 - 30) - 3/3/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
MIAMI is 80-62 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in home games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON (44 - 19) at HOUSTON (48 - 13) - 3/3/2018, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
BOSTON is 261-211 ATS (+28.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
HOUSTON is 50-69 ATS (-25.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.
HOUSTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS (27 - 34) at SAN ANTONIO (36 - 26) - 3/3/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 5-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UTAH (32 - 30) at SACRAMENTO (19 - 43) - 3/3/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 41-25 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games on Saturday games since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 4-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 season.
OKLAHOMA CITY (37 - 27) at PORTLAND (36 - 26) - 3/3/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
PORTLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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