Friday 6/8/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB and WNBA games.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, June 8, 2018
6/08 05:10 PM PT / 8:10 PM ET
MLB (975) LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS (976) MINNESOTA TWINS
Take: (976) MINNESOTA TWINS
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Free Seattle w/Gonzales -130 Over Tampa Bay
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: Take KANSAS CITY/OAKLAND OVER the total of 8 runs
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Totals4U
Friday's Free Selection: San Francisco/Washington over 7 1/2
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Over in the Warriors-Cavaliers game.
We had out first Under in the series on Wednesday in Game 3 as Golden State rode a career-playoff high 43 points from Kevin Durant to a 110-102 win over Cleveland.
The 212 combined points was a few buckets shy of toppling the total between these teams for the 7th straight time in the NBA Finals. You can blame that Under on the shooting, or lack thereof by Steph Curry and Klay Thompson who could only muster 21 points combined between the pair! My question to you is this...do you think Curry and Thompson are going to both be held down in tonight's possible series clincher?
No, no, no!
I expect both to be major contributors to the Warriors cause, and I also expect LeBron James who did have 33 points, but seemed more interested in being a distributor instead to the "go-to" guy that he normally is, to be more aggressive with the ball in tonight's elimination contest.
Speaking of elimination contests, knowing this could be the last game of the season, expect more fouls and free throws should the Cavs find themselves trailing in the latter stages of this one.
That being the case, I say go Over in the Warriors-Cavaliers contest here on Friday night.
4* GOLDEN STATE-CLEVELAND OVER
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Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Philadelphia Phillies, minus the money against the suddenly struggling Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee, which has dominated the National League Central the past month or so, is under siege from the surging second-place Chicago Cubs. The Brewers have lost three in a row and split their last 10 after losing Wednesday in Cleveland, 3-1.
Philadelphia, too, has been struggling, having lost two straight and seven of 10. But the Phils are at home, where they're 19-9 this season and are in the right spot to end this skid and start a winning run.
Take the home team here, and don't bother listing pitchers.
5* PHILLIES
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Brad Wilton
Friday's comp play is the Under in the Diamondbacks-Rockies series opener from Coors Field.
Both teams have been trending Over of late, but tonight's pitching matchup dictates a play on the Under as we have Zack Greinke working against German Marquez.
Greinke's season ERA is just 3.44, and 5 of his last 6 starts have held Under the total. He has gone 3-1 with an ERA of 4.14 in 10 career appearances at Coors Field, and if he keeps things in that range tonight, the Under will be rock-solid.
As for Marquez, his ERA over his last 3 starts is a slender 2.70 with 2 of those 3 starts, and 7 of his 11 starts for the season holding Under the total. At home, the Rockies have held Under in 9 of Marquez' last 12 pitched at Coors Field.
Both teams have been cranking lately, and there will be some runs on the scoreboard, but not enough to clear this double-digit total.
Arizona-Colorado Under.
3* ARIZONA-COLORADO UNDER
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Jack Brayman
Let's take the defending World Series champion Houston Astros tonight, over the Texas Rangers. And we're doing so on the Run Line.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Justin Verlander and Doug Fister. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Verlander comes in sporting a dominating 3-0 mark and 1.30 ERA in his last four starts, including a shutout against the Angels on May 16. Overall, the veteran right-hander has struck out 104 batters over 87.1 innings and has registered 12 quality starts in 13 outings this year. He will dominate tonight.
He should get run support against Fister, who is looking for his first win since March 30, when he allowed one run in five innings against these same Astros in this same ballpark. But things have gone south, as the righty is 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA in five starts at home.
Take the 'Stros big today.
3* ASTROS RUN LINE (Verlander over Fister)
Jimmy Boyd
Jun 08 '18, 8:40 PM in 6h
MLB | ARI vs COL
Play on: OVER 10½ -105
Free pick on Rockies/Diamondbacks OVER 10.5
I like the value here with the OVER in Friday's MLB action that has the Rockies hosting the Diamondbacks. Offense almost always wins out at Coors Field, especially this time of year, and I think we are going to see both teams score early and often in this one.
Some might be hesitant to take the OVER with Zack Greinke on the mound for Arizona, but he's been a completely different pitcher on the road compare to at home. Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in 7 home starts and 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 road outings. He'll be up against a red-hot Colorado offense that has scored 5 or more runs in 4 straight games and are averaging 6.1 runs a game in their last 7.
Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt appears to have finally broken out of his slump and when he's hot this offense typically is one of the best in baseball. I like the Diamondbacks chances here of putting up a big number against Colorado's German Marquez, who is just 1-3 with a 7.22 ERA and 1.918 WHIP in 6 home starts. Take the OVER!
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Info Plays
Jun 08 '18, 8:10 PM
MLB | Angels vs Twins
Play on: Angels -125
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Jack Jones
Jun 08 '18, 7:10 PM
MLB | Padres vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins -130
Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Miami Marlins -130
It’s not often I back the Miami Marlins. However, due to their advantage on the mound today, they are worth laying the small price of -130. I’ve seen enough from starter Caleb Smith to know he’s the real deal.
Smith has gone 4-6 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 74 K’s in 60 1/3 innings. He has been at his best at home, going 1-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in five starts. And Smith faced the Padres on May 28th, yielding just one run in 7 innings of a 7-2 victory for a 1.29 ERA.
Opposite Smith in that May 28th start was Eric Lauer, who gave up 5 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings to take the loss. Lauer has been brutal all season, going 2-3 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.981 WHIP in eight starts. He is no match for Smith in this one.
San Diego is 22-53 after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. It is losing by 2.1 runs per game on average in this spot. The Padres are 9-25 in their last 34 games following an off day. The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Marlins Friday.
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Bobby Conn
Jun 08 '18, 7:10 PM
MLB | Yankees vs Mets
Play on: Mets +106
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Sal Michaels
Jun 08 '18, 7:05 PM
MLB | Brewers vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies -123
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Kenny Walker
Jun 08 '18, 7:10 PM
MLB | Cardinals vs Reds
Play on: Reds +135
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Totals Guru
Jun 08 '18, 7:05 PM
MLB | SFO vs WAS
Play on: UNDER 7½ +100
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Dustin Hawkins
Jun 08 '18, 10:05 PM
MLB | KC vs OAK
Play on: UNDER 8 +100
Doug Upstone
Jun 08 '18, 8:10 PM
MLB | LAA vs MIN
Play on: OVER 8½ -118
On Friday night on the diamond, Play Over on AL teams when the total is 8.5 to 10 like MINNESOTA, with a slugging percentage of .400 or lower, against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or lower, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three starts. Since 2014, this system is 67-27 OVER,
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Dave Price
Jun 08 '18, 8:10 PM
MLB | Angels vs Twins
Play on: Angels -121
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Mark Wilson
Jun 08 '18, 10:05 PM
MLB | KC vs OAK
Play on: UNDER 8 +100
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Marc Lawrence
Jun 08 '18, 7:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Cardinals vs Reds
Play on: Cardinals -139 at pinnacle
Play - St. Louis Cardinals (Game 957).
Edges - Cardinals: Weaver 2.89 ERA last five starts with 27 Ks and 5 BBs … Reds: 1-14 last fifteen games in this series, including 0-9 the last nine games here… We recommend a 1* play on St. Louis. Thank you and good luck as always.
Stephen Nover
Jun 08 '18, 10:10 PM
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Braves +166
The surprising Braves have a better offense than the Dodgers, are 10 games above .500 compared to LA's .500 record and drawing a rookie pitcher. Yet the Dodgers are a monster favorite here. I'm not buying this especially considering the situational aspects of this game. LA concluded a six-game road trip with an 8-7 victory against the Pirates yesterday. The Dodgers' bullpen is heavily taxed having pitched 14 1/3 innings the past two days. LA is in a fat and happy mood having won five of six during its road trip. While the Dodgers face the distraction of returning home without rest after being gone a week while playing in two different time zones, the Braves were idle on Thursday. They've been in Southern California since Monday. Atlanta is 20-14 on the road. The Dodgers are 14-17 at home. Braves starter Brandon McCarthy won't lack motivation pitching against his former team having played for the Dodgers from 2015-17. The 34-year-old McCarthy certainly brings an experience level Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler lacks. McCarthy has held foes to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts. Buehler is a highly-rated prospect. So far he's living up to his hype with a 2.74 ERA in his first 46 innings. Buehler, though, figures to have ups and downs as the league gets more film and first-hand information about him. Atlanta leads the National League in runs and OPS. The Braves have the fourth-highest batting average, too, in the majors. The Dodgers' offense hasn't been able to match that. LA ranks 18th in batting average.
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Larry Ness
Jun 08 '18, 7:10 PM
MLB | Padres vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins -136
My free play is on the Mia Marlins at 7:10 ET.
The San Diego Padres ended May with a four-game home series against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins won the opener but the Padres erupted for 20 runs to capture the final three contests of that series and have gone 4-2 to begin June. The 29-35 Padres now begin a 10-game road trip with the opener of a three-game series versus those very same Miami Marlins on Friday night. San Diego is looking for an eighth win in its last 10 outings on Friday and has won three straight series for the first time in 11 months. The team's bullpen of 3.29 ERA ranks seventh in the majors and after a 10-20 start, the Padres are 19-15 since May 1.
The Marlins' daily lineup is comprised of players all in their 20s, led by catcher J.T. Realmuto. He is having an All-Star season. Realmuto is regarded by many as the fastest catcher in the majors and he also has a strong arm defensively. He leads the Marlins in triples with three, in batting average (.311) and OPS (.911). If those batting average and OPS figures hold up, they would be career highs. The 22-40 Marlins open a seven-game homestand with this three-game series and take the field tonight having lost 10 of 13. Miami is already 14 games back in the NL East and seem destined for a last-place finish in that division.
The pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, San Diego's Eric Lauer (2-3, 6.82 ERA) going up against Miami's Caleb Smith (4-6, 4.03 ERA). Lauer matched his shortest outing of the season on May 28 when he was touched for five runs on seven hits in just 2 1/3 innings of a 7-2 setback versus Miami. The 23-year-old Ohio native rebounded with a strong effort this past Saturday, surrendering a solo HR among five hits over five innings to record his first win since May 6 with an 8-2 rout of Cincinnati. Lauer is a 2016 first-round pick out of Kent State and will be making his ninth major-league start. Smith started opposite Lauer back on May 28, allowing one run on four hits in seven innings to lower his ERA to a season-best 3.51 at that point. However, he saw his ERA go up by half a run after being taken deep twice and surrendering five runs on as many hits in four innings of a 6-2 setback at Atlanta in his most recent outing on Saturday.
The Padres and Marlins are both rebuilding, although currently, the Padres' effort seems to be paying off. However, the pitching edge goes to Miami in this one, as L:auer was awful in his lone start against Miami in 2018 (five runs on seven hits in 2 1/3 innings) plus the Padres are just 2-6 when he starts. As for Smith, he's 4-3 with a 3.03 ERA in his past seven starts, while averaging 11.0 strikeouts (good) and 4.2 walks per nine innings (bad). That said, Smith got the better of Lauer back on May 2 in San Diego and repeats that result here in Miami. Take the Marlins.
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Sean Murphy
Jun 08 '18, 10:10 PM
MLB | ATL vs LAD
Play on: UNDER 7½ +101
Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday.
The Dodgers have been on an 'over' run lately, with five of their last six games soaring over the total. I expect a different story to unfold tonight, however, as they return home to host the Braves.
Brandon McCarthy will take the ball for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts, giving up two earned runs or less in three of those outings. The 'under' has cashed in three of his last four starts as well. Keep in mind, the Dodgers average less than four runs per game here at home. McCarthy hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2014.
Rookie phenom Walker Buehler will counter for Los Angeles. He is coming off his rockiest outing of the season (no pun intended) in Colorado last weekend. It's not as if he really labored through that start, however, as he threw only 84 pitches over five innings. Prior to that start, Buehler had worked at least six innings in four of his last five trips to the hill. He has posted an impressive 1.44 ERA and 0.72 WHIP at home this season. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in his previous four starts at Chavez Ravine.
The betting public is currently lining up to back the 'over' in this one, which is not surprising given the way the Dodgers have been playing recently. That's fine with us as we're being afforded a generous return with the 'under'. Take the under (8*).
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John Martin
Jun 08 '18, 7:10 PM in 5h
MLB | CLE vs DET
Play on: OVER 8½ -115
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Indians/Tigers OVER 8.5
Trevor Bauer is having a fine season, but he has not enjoyed facing the Tigers throughout his career. Bauer is 5-5 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 13 previous starts against Detroit. Michael Fulmer has been off this season at 2-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts, including 0-4 with a 5.19 ERA in six home starts. And Fulmer doesn’t like facing the Indians, either, going 2-3 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in six previous starts against them. This looks like an easy OVER winner to me. Give me the OVER 8.5 runs.
Steve Janus
Jun 08 '18, 10:10 PM
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Braves +180
1* Free Sharp Play on Braves +180
I think Atlanta is worth a look here at this price. The Braves have been the better team so far in 2018. Atlanta is 36-26, while LA is sitting at 31-31. I know the Dodgers have been playing better of late, but I just feel they are way overpriced here against a Braves team that has gone 20-14 on the road. Keep in mind LA has a losing home record at 14-17. Atlanta is 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and are 7-1 in their last 8 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Bet the Braves +180!
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