The Texas vs LSU prediction starts with a rare road trip. Texas makes its first visit to Baton Rouge since 1953, and it arrives as a 4.5-point underdog against LSU in a Saturday night SEC game with College Football Playoff weight. Texas sits sixth in the committee’s rankings, while LSU is trying to salvage a season that has slipped to 6-3. The market has held firm on LSU even as most tickets land on Texas. Below, we break down the quarterback matchup, the line and the two plays that stand out.
Texas vs. LSU — Game Info
| Where | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge Louisiana |
| When | November 14 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ABC |
Texas vs. LSU Betting Preview
This game runs through two quarterbacks with very different recent paths. Arch Manning has steadied Texas during a three-game winning streak. He threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in the 34-20 comeback win at Missouri, including the go-ahead score to Raleek Brown in the fourth quarter. On the other side, Sam Leavitt threw for 380 yards against Alabama. However, LSU still lost that game 31-13 because its running game produced just 2.3 yards per carry.
Texas is 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC under Steve Sarkisian. Both losses came by three points, 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 to Florida. The Texas résumé also includes a 24-23 win over Ohio State and a 20-17 win at Tennessee. In short, Texas lives in close games. Four of its nine results were decided by three points or fewer. The Ohio State win came after Texas erased a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit, so this group has shown it can recover from a bad start.
LSU is 6-3 and 3-3 in league play in Lane Kiffin’s first season. The 31-13 home loss to Alabama dropped LSU to 0-3 against ranked opponents. Its other losses came 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 in overtime at Kentucky. Our Alabama vs LSU prediction covered the lead-up to that last loss. The CFP selection committee has Texas at No. 6 and LSU at No. 21. In this week’s AP poll, Texas is No. 8 and LSU is No. 24.
Availability matters on both sidelines. Texas is without running back Hollywood Smothers, offensive lineman Trevor Goosby, tight end Nick Townsend and edge Richard Wesley. Offensive lineman Cole Hutson is questionable. LSU is without safety Dashawn Spears, defensive tackle Richard Anderson and linebacker Charles Ross II, while linebacker Whit Weeks is questionable. Travel added a wrinkle, too. A nationwide FAA ground stop held the Texas flight in Austin on Friday, and the team was expected to fly out late that night.
Texas vs. LSU Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | +4.5 (-110) | +172 | O 46.5 (-108) |
| LSU | -4.5 (-110) | -205 | U 46.5 (-112) |
Odds accurate as of November 14, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Texas vs. LSU — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Texas | 80% | 20% | LSU |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Can LSU Run the Ball After 2.3 Yards a Carry Against Alabama?
The cleanest read in this game is on the defenses. CBS Sports ranks Texas and LSU among the top three SEC defenses by most measures, and the league results back that up. Through six SEC games, each team has allowed about 20.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Texas has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry, according to College Football News. That is a difficult matchup for an LSU offense whose ground game stalled against Alabama.
The LSU defense has been just as stubborn at home. It held Texas A&M to six points in a 35-6 win and shut out Mississippi State 31-0. Both of those games went under the closing total. Neither offense has been explosive in league play, either. Texas has averaged about 27.8 points per SEC game, and LSU has averaged about 29.2.
The first half is where we expect that defensive edge to show most. If LSU cannot run, its offense becomes one-dimensional against a Texas defense that has played well in league games. Texas also comes in after an unsettled Friday of travel. In contrast, the full-game total can be pushed by late-game scoring, desperation drives and overtime, as LSU’s loss at Kentucky showed. The 23.5 number sits slightly above half of the full-game 46.5, and the price of -105 needs only about a 51.2% hit rate to break even.
Still, there is a real case against it. Leavitt threw for 380 yards even in the Alabama loss, and Manning threw three touchdown passes at Missouri. The full-game total also ticked up from 46 at the open to 46.5. Explosive passing plays could break this open quickly. This read also leans on the same defensive thesis as our second pick, so the two are not fully independent.
The Pick: First Half Under 23.5 (-105)
Does a Grounded Flight Rattle Texas in Its First Baton Rouge Trip Since 1953?
Texas is 2-0 in true road games, with wins at Tennessee and at Missouri. It has also covered three straight games, including a 31-3 win over Mississippi State that we previewed in our Mississippi State vs Texas prediction. LSU, meanwhile, is 4-5 against the spread and has not beaten a ranked team this season. With four Texas games decided by three points or fewer, the extra point and a half beyond a field goal carries real value. The moneyline price of +172 implies only about a 36.8% chance of an outright Texas win.
However, the market is pushing back. Roughly 80% of spread tickets are on Texas, yet the number has not moved off LSU -4.5 since it opened. That is a line freeze. The LSU moneyline also shortened from -200 to -205 while most moneyline tickets backed Texas. Both point to money on LSU. The travel disruption and a thin Texas offensive line add risk, so this is a lean against the market rather than with it.
The Pick: Texas +4.5 (-110)
Our Final Word on Texas vs. LSU
The last meeting in 2019 went to LSU 45-38 in Austin, a shootout. This version brings two much stingier defenses. Texas has the stronger résumé, while LSU has the home field and the market’s support. The First Half Under 23.5 at -105 is our top play because both defenses have held SEC opponents to about 20 points per game. Texas +4.5 at -110 is the second play because four of its nine games have been decided by three points or fewer.
NCAAF Texas vs. LSU FAQ: November 14, 2026
What time does the Texas vs. LSU game start?
Texas and LSU kick off at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026. That is 6:30 PM local time in Baton Rouge, where the game is played at Tiger Stadium. It is a Saturday night SEC game in prime time.
What channel is the Texas vs. LSU game on?
The Texas vs. LSU game airs nationally on ABC, with kickoff set for 7:30 PM ET. The Texas athletics department lists ABC for the broadcast, which kicks off at 6:30 PM local time in Baton Rouge.
Where are Texas and LSU playing?
Texas and LSU play at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, with LSU as the home team. It is the first time the two programs have met in Baton Rouge since 1953, and their first meeting as SEC opponents.
Is Texas or LSU ranked?
Both teams are ranked. Texas is No. 6 and LSU is No. 21 in the latest College Football Playoff committee rankings. In this week’s AP Top 25, Texas is No. 8 and LSU is No. 24 after its loss to Alabama.
What are Texas’s and LSU’s records this season?
Texas is 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC, with both losses by three points. LSU is 6-3 overall and 3-3 in the SEC, with losses to Ole Miss, Kentucky and Alabama. Both teams play in the SEC, so this is a conference game.
Who won the last meeting between Texas and LSU?
LSU won the last meeting 45-38 in Austin in 2019. Joe Burrow led LSU in that game. Saturday’s game is the first between the programs since then, and the first in Baton Rouge since 1953.