Our Baylor vs BYU prediction starts with a Big 12 matchup that carries real stakes for both teams. BYU hosts Baylor in Provo as a 9-point favorite, with the total sitting at 50.5. Both teams enter at 4-2 in conference play. BYU is coming off a loss at Utah, while Baylor has won twice since a midseason coaching change. Below, we break down the quarterbacks, the market move and the two plays we like best.
Baylor vs. BYU — Game Info
| Where | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah |
| When | November 14 – 3:30 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Baylor vs. BYU Betting Preview
The quarterback matchup shapes this game more than anything else. BYU’s Bear Bachmeier is coming off the worst day of his career. He threw four interceptions in a 28-20 loss at Utah, even while passing for 272 yards. Still, he remains the engine of the offense. Bachmeier leads BYU in both passing and rushing, with 395 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns this season.
Baylor’s DJ Lagway, the Florida transfer, is trending the other way. He has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions over Baylor’s last two games. Those games came right after the school fired Dave Aranda following a loss to Kansas in late October. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman took over as interim coach. Since then, Baylor has beaten UCF and Iowa State, scoring 41 and 42 points.
The stakes are clear on both sides. BYU is 7-2 overall and sits No. 12 in the AP poll. More importantly, BYU holds the No. 10 spot in the CFP rankings, inside the playoff field. Baylor is 6-3 and unranked, but it is still alive in the conference race at 4-2.
Health is a factor for BYU’s skill positions. Running back LJ Martin returned against Utah after missing four games with a high ankle sprain. His coordinator said he is not close to full strength, though he is listed as probable. Tight end Roger Saleapaga is listed as doubtful, per the Deseret News. No significant Baylor injuries have been reported.
The key matchup sits in the trenches. Baylor’s pass rush ranks among the national leaders in sacks. BYU’s offensive line, however, ranks among the nation’s best at preventing them. Whichever side wins that battle likely decides whether Bachmeier has time to rebound from the Utah game. It also shapes how often Lagway gets the ball back with a short field.
The market has moved toward BYU all week. The spread opened at BYU -7.5 and now sits at -9.0, with 67% of spread tickets on BYU. The total opened at 48.5 and has climbed to 50.5.
Baylor vs. BYU Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | +9.0 (-112) | +260 | O 50.5 (-110) |
| BYU | -9.0 (-108) | -320 | U 50.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 14, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Baylor vs. BYU — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Baylor | 33% | 67% | BYU |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
What Has Baylor Found Since Aranda’s Exit?
The spread move toward BYU follows the public ticket count. That is expected movement and a weak signal on its own. However, it matters for price. The number has crossed 7 and 8, so the underdog side now carries a cushion beyond a one-score game. That is a better number than the open offered.
The case for Baylor rests on its defense and its recent form. Baylor allows about 17 points per game, and its attacking front has created negative plays all season. Baylor is also 7-2 against the spread, while BYU has failed to cover three straight games. Meanwhile, Lagway has not thrown an interception in two games under Klanderman.
The case against is real. BYU’s offensive line ranks among the best in the country in sacks allowed, which blunts Baylor’s biggest strength. BYU also owns the top defense in the Big 12. If Bachmeier plays a clean game, BYU can win comfortably at home. Still, a 9-point margin asks a lot from an offense that sputtered in the red zone at Utah. That included a goal-line interception.
The Pick: Baylor +9.0 (-112)
17 Points Allowed Meets the Big 12’s Best Defense
Both defenses here are built to limit big plays. BYU’s unit ranks first in the Big 12. Baylor’s defense has held opponents to about 17 points per game. In contrast, neither running game has been consistent. Baylor’s rushing attack grades below average, and BYU’s lead back, LJ Martin, is still not at full strength.
The total has risen two points since the open, so the market leans the other way. That move is a warning worth respecting. Lagway’s recent hot streak and Bachmeier’s legs could push this into a shootout. Even so, the value sits at the higher number. Two points of movement toward the Over hands Under bettors a better line than the opener. Note that this play and the Baylor spread both rely on the same idea: a game controlled by two strong defenses.
The Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)
Our Final Word on Baylor vs. BYU
Recent history points to a close game. BYU won the last two meetings by six points each, 34-28 at Baylor in 2024 and 26-20 in double overtime in Provo in 2022. That same narrow margin would cover for Baylor here. On the other hand, BYU’s place in the playoff field is on the line at home. For more on BYU, revisit our Arizona State vs BYU prediction. For another Big 12 matchup, see our West Virginia vs Texas Tech prediction.
Baylor +9.0 (-112) is our top play because a stingy defense and a turnover-free quarterback should keep this within one score. The Under 50.5 (-110) follows because two stingy defenses meet with both running games limited.
NCAAF Baylor vs. BYU FAQ: November 14, 2026
What time does the Baylor vs. BYU game start?
Baylor and BYU kick off at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, 2026. That is 1:30 PM local time in Provo and 2:30 PM Central for Baylor fans in Texas. The game is a Big 12 matchup between two teams sitting at 4-2 in conference play.
What channel is the Baylor vs. BYU game on?
The Baylor vs. BYU game airs nationally on FOX. Coverage begins with the 3:30 PM ET kickoff from LaVell Edwards Stadium. Viewers can find the broadcast on their local FOX affiliate. The national broadcast follows BYU’s loss at Utah last week.
Is Baylor or BYU ranked?
BYU is ranked; Baylor is not. BYU is No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings released November 10 and No. 12 in the AP Top 25. It fell in both after losing 28-20 at Utah. Baylor does not appear in either the CFP rankings or the AP poll.
What are Baylor’s and BYU’s records this season?
BYU is 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12. Baylor is 6-3 overall and also 4-2 in conference play. Baylor has won two straight under interim coach Joe Klanderman. BYU has lost two of its last three, including last week’s loss at Utah.
Who won the last meeting between Baylor and BYU?
BYU won the last meeting, 34-28 at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, on September 28, 2024. A late interception sealed the win for BYU. BYU also won the previous matchup in Provo, 26-20 in double overtime, on September 10, 2022.