This Sacramento State vs Central Michigan prediction centers on a Wednesday night conference game with two quarterback rooms in flux. Central Michigan is laying 18.5 points at home, and the total sits at 44. Sacramento State is playing the last Mid-American Conference game of its first FBS season. Central Michigan, meanwhile, is trying to keep its bowl hopes alive. Below, we break down the matchup, read the market and lay out the two plays that stand out.
Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan — Game Time and Where to Watch
| Where | Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant Michigan |
| When | November 11 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan Betting Preview
Central Michigan enters at 4-5 overall and 2-3 in the MAC. It snapped a three-game losing streak last Wednesday by beating Eastern Michigan 35-7 at Ford Field in Detroit. With three games left, Central Michigan needs two more wins to reach six. Our Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan preview covered the start of this quarterback change.
That change is the story of the offense. Angel Flores, a run-first quarterback, still leads the team with 618 rushing yards. However, Flores is expected to miss the rest of the season after ankle surgery. Jadyn Glasser has started the last two games. He went 18 of 31 for 221 yards and a touchdown against Miami (Ohio). He followed that by going 14 of 19 for 175 yards and a touchdown against Eastern Michigan. Coach Matt Drinkall has described the two quarterbacks as opposite skill sets, and the offense now looks more balanced. Central Michigan is also without leading receiver Langston Lewis, who was suspended on Oct. 30 and missed the Eastern Michigan game.
Sacramento State is 2-8 overall and 1-6 in league play in its debut FBS season. Its lone conference win came 31-10 over Kent State on Oct. 30. Its three MAC road games all ended in double-digit losses: 28-17 at Eastern Michigan, 38-10 at Bowling Green and 34-17 at Ball State. Last week it lost 20-17 to Toledo after leading 10-7 at halftime. The defense held Toledo to 60 passing yards. Still, the offense managed only eight rushing yards against Toledo. We previewed that one in our Toledo vs Sacramento State prediction.
Quarterback Jackson Sharman has started nine straight games. But Sharman left the Toledo game at halftime with an injury. He is listed as the starter, though his availability has not been confirmed. Brian Salazar Jr. went 12 of 18 for 103 yards in relief. Opening-day starter Carson Conklin broke a bone in his throwing arm and has not returned.
This is the first meeting between the schools, according to Sacramento State athletics. It is also the visitors’ third game in 12 days, capped by a cross-country trip. Neither offense scores much. Central Michigan averages 19.8 points per game and Sacramento State averages 17.0. On the other side of the ball, Central Michigan allows 23.8 points per game and Sacramento State allows 29.3. In the market, Central Michigan opened at -18 and has moved half a point higher while spread tickets sit close to even.
Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento State | +18.5 (-112) | +650 | O 44.0 (-110) |
| Central Michigan | -18.5 (-108) | -1000 | U 44.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Hornets vs. Chippewas — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Sacramento State | 51% | 49% | Central Michigan |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Who Takes the Snaps for Sacramento State?
Sacramento State’s quarterback question shapes the scoring outlook more than anything else on the board. Sharman has thrown for 1,476 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. If he cannot go, a sophomore with four relief appearances inherits an attack that just ran for eight yards. Either way, Sacramento State has scored 17 or fewer points in four of its last five games.
Central Michigan is not built to run up a score, either. It averages 176.6 rushing yards and just 129.0 passing yards per game. Against Eastern Michigan, Woodford’s three touchdown drives ran 12, 13 and 16 plays. Each one took nearly seven minutes or longer. That style drains the clock, and a comfortable lead only makes Central Michigan lean on it harder. Sacramento State’s defense also held Toledo to 20 points last week. The trend lines agree. Central Michigan has gone over in just three of nine games, and Sacramento State in three of 10.
The market offers no confirmation, though. The total has not moved since it opened Sunday. This is a research read at a fair price, not a play backed by money. There is a real case on the other side. Sacramento State’s defense is the weaker unit here, and Central Michigan scored 35 and 41 in its two most lopsided wins. Glasser also makes Central Michigan more willing to throw, which can speed up its scoring. A turnover deep in Sacramento State territory or a return touchdown could add points neither offense earns. The edge is real, but it is not loud.
The Pick: Under 44.0 (-110)
Was Nick Woodford’s Detroit Breakout a Preview?
Nick Woodford had 135 rushing yards through Central Michigan’s first eight games. Then he carried 21 times for 123 yards and three touchdowns against Eastern Michigan. His scores came from 11, 2 and 1 yard out, which is goal-line work. Central Michigan ran for 235 yards as a team that night. He now has a team-high six rushing touchdowns. With Flores sidelined, the short-yardage carries that used to go to the quarterback have shifted to the backfield. Sacramento State gives up 173.9 rushing yards per game, and Toledo ran for 230 against it last week.
The price is the problem. It implies roughly a 65% chance, so Woodford has to find the end zone about two times in three just to break even. One big night is also a small sample, and Drinkall has pointed to the depth of his running back room. The board prices several other Central Michigan backs as likely scorers, too. Note that this play and the first one share an input. Both lean on Central Michigan running the ball and finishing drives on the ground. The read is sound, but the margin is thin.
The Pick: Nicholas Woodford Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-186)
Our Final Word on Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan
Central Michigan is the far stronger team on paper, and its new-look offense showed real life in Detroit. Still, both offenses rank near the bottom of the country in scoring. The visitors may also be turning to their third starting quarterback of the season. That points to a grinding game rather than a shootout. Under 44.0 (-110) is our top play because two low-scoring offenses meet with Sacramento State’s quarterback status still unsettled. Nicholas Woodford Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-186) follows because Central Michigan’s goal-line carries now go to its backfield, and Woodford owns that role.