Our Michigan State vs Michigan prediction lands on a Saturday night in Ann Arbor. Michigan is a 14-point favorite, and the total sits at 40. The Paul Bunyan Trophy is on the line for the 105th time. Both programs also arrive with first-year head coaches getting their first taste of the rivalry. Michigan has won four straight in the series. Michigan State, meanwhile, has dropped six in a row and is still searching for its first Big Ten win. Below, we break down the quarterback picture, the injury report, the market and the two bets that stand out most.
Michigan State vs. Michigan — Game Info
| Where | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor MI |
| When | November 7 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Preview
The quarterback room shapes this game more than anything else. Michigan benched Bryce Underwood after a scoreless first half against Penn State and turned to freshman Tommy Carr. Carr struggled in his first start, a 13-6 overtime loss to Indiana. He looked far sharper at Rutgers last week in a 28-21 win. Carr completed 22 of 27 passes for 266 yards with no interceptions and added 54 rushing yards.
Michigan State’s situation is murkier. Starter Alessio Milivojevic is listed as questionable on the official availability report released Wednesday night, the same tag he carried before missing the UCLA game. Cam Fancher is out. Freshmen Leo Hannan and Kayd Coffman split snaps against UCLA, and the offense managed just 10 points in a 28-10 loss. If Milivojevic sits again, that freshman pairing likely runs the offense in a hostile road environment.
The attrition goes well beyond quarterback. Michigan State ruled out 13 players, including its top three running backs in Cam Edwards, Jaziun Patterson and Marvis Parrish. Two cornerbacks are also out, with two more listed as questionable. Michigan has its own concerns, with defensive ends John Henry Daley and Dom Nichols and tight end Hogan Hansen all questionable.
Michigan sits at 5-3 overall and 2-3 in the Big Ten under Kyle Whittingham. Its defense has carried the team, allowing roughly 16 points per game. The offense has been the problem, scoring about 21 points per game, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally. Michigan State is 2-6 and 0-5 in league play under Pat Fitzgerald, and its defense has given up nearly 26 points per game. Neither team is ranked in this week’s AP Top 25. A win would give Michigan six victories, the usual bar for bowl eligibility. Michigan State, with four games left, would need to win out to get there. Michigan won last year’s meeting 31-20 in East Lansing.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | +14.0 (-105) | +450 | O 40.0 (-108) |
| Michigan | -14.0 (-115) | -600 | U 40.0 (-112) |
Odds accurate as of November 7, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Michigan State vs. Michigan — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Michigan State | 35% | 65% | Michigan |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction — Twelve Unders in 16 Games Meets a Big House Night
Both teams have been reliable low-scoring bets all season. Michigan State games have stayed under the total six times in eight tries, and Michigan games have done the same. That is not a fluke of short numbers, either. Michigan’s defense ranks among the best in the country at keeping opponents off the board, and its offense has rarely pulled away from anyone.
The matchup reinforces the trend. Michigan State’s offense was already one of the weakest in the country before the injury report hit. Now it may start a freshman quarterback behind a depleted backfield, with Kenneth Williams carrying most of the load. Michigan State has averaged just 11 points per game across the last four meetings. On the other side, Michigan’s offense has been inconsistent and relies on a young quarterback with two career starts. A slow, grinding script fits both rosters.
The case against is real, however. The total opened at 39.5 and has ticked up to 40, so the market has not moved toward this side. Carr’s Rutgers performance also showed Michigan’s passing game can produce, and Michigan State’s secondary is short on healthy cornerbacks. The over also cashed in three of the last four meetings, according to SI’s betting preview. A defensive or special teams score could flip the math quickly at a number this low. Still, the under carries slightly more juice than the over. That suggests the book is not eager to take more money on the low side.
The Pick: Under 40.0 (-112)
Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction — What Does 14 Points Say About a Six-Game Skid?
This spread opened at 13 and has moved to 14 with 65% of spread bets on Michigan. That is movement with the public, which carries little sharp signal. It does, however, hand the underdog a better number, and 14 is a key number in college football. Michigan has also struggled to cover as a favorite since the start of last season. Its offense rarely builds big leads, and last week it beat Rutgers by just seven as a heavy road favorite.
The obvious risk is that Michigan State simply cannot score. Six straight losses, a freshman quarterback and no top running backs make a blowout entirely possible. Note, too, that this read leans on the same weak Michigan offense behind the under, so the two picks are not independent. If Michigan’s attack catches fire, both lose together.
The rivalry factor matters here, too. Records tend to mean less in these games, so we weight Michigan State’s losing streak a little less than usual. Michigan’s own results support that view. College Football News points out that seven of Michigan’s eight games this season were decided by a touchdown or less, with a 52-17 win over UTEP the lone exception. Michigan’s passing game also failed to reach 170 yards in any of the three games before Rutgers. Carr’s Rutgers outing was a clear step forward. Even so, one strong start against a Big Ten defense is a thin sample to lay two touchdowns on.
The Pick: Michigan State +14.0 (-105)
Our Final Word on Michigan State vs. Michigan
Michigan should be the better team on Saturday night, and its defense gives it a high floor at home. Yet laying 14 points asks an offense that averages about 21 points per game to win by two touchdowns or more. For background on Michigan’s last game, see our Michigan vs Rutgers prediction from October 31. Our Nebraska vs Illinois prediction looks at another Big Ten game this week.
We like the Under 40.0 at -112 because two teams with 12 unders in 16 combined games meet with Michigan State badly short-handed on offense. We also like Michigan State +14.0 at -105 because the public-driven move to a key number gives value against an offense that rarely pulls away.