The Boston Bruins carry a two-game winning streak into PPG Paints Arena on Thursday night, while the Pittsburgh Penguins try to snap a three-game skid. Our Bruins vs Penguins prediction starts in the crease, where the gap between the two projected starters is wide. Still, the market has this game priced as a near coin flip, with Pittsburgh a slight home favorite and the total sitting at 6.5. We break down the goaltending, the schedule, special teams and what the opening line has done before landing on two picks.
Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins — Time and How to Watch
| Where | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh PA |
| When | November 5 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | NESN, SportsNet Pittsburgh |
Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Preview
Start with the goaltenders. Jeremy Swayman projects to start for Boston, and Arturs Silovs projects for Pittsburgh. Neither start is confirmed yet, and Daily Faceoff had both Swayman and Silovs listed as unconfirmed on Thursday morning. That makes this read provisional. Swayman is 8-3-1 with a 2.30 GAA and a .913 save percentage. MoneyPuck data cited by DraftKings Network puts him sixth in the league in goals saved above expected. Silovs, in contrast, is 5-4-1 with a .888 save percentage and a GAA near 3.00. If Michael DiPietro or Sergei Murashov starts instead, the read changes, especially for Pittsburgh. Murashov is 0-4-1 with an .871 save percentage.
Boston arrives at 11-4-1 with 23 points and is 7-2-1 in its last 10. The Bruins beat Chicago 5-4 and then Vegas 3-2 in a shootout on Monday. They score 3.56 goals per game and allow just 2.38. Pittsburgh sits at 5-8-2 with 12 points and is 3-6-1 in its last 10. The Penguins dropped one-goal games to Utah, Montreal and Vegas in their last three. Their goal differential is minus-three, which suggests the record is a little worse than the play.
The scoring leaders frame the matchup. David Pastrnak leads Boston with 20 points on eight goals and 12 assists. Rookie James Hagens has added 12 points in his first NHL season. For Pittsburgh, Erik Karlsson paces the team with 16 points, mostly assists. Sidney Crosby has 10 points, and Malkin has six goals and 11 points when healthy. The gap in depth shows up on the scoreboard. Boston ranks fourth in goals allowed per game, while Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom 10 at 3.40.
Neither team is on a back-to-back. Boston last played Monday, and Pittsburgh last played Tuesday. The Penguins are thin, however. Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Elmer Soderblom are all out. Evgeni Malkin is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, but Malkin returned to his second-line spot at Wednesday’s practice. Boston’s only listed injury is Matthew Poitras, who is day-to-day. Last season, the Bruins went 2-0-1 against Pittsburgh, and all three games were decided by one goal. The finale was a 5-4 Penguins overtime win in Pittsburgh last March.
Boston Bruins vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | +1.5 (-275) | -108 | O 6.5 (-112) |
| Penguins | -1.5 (+225) | -112 | U 6.5 (-108) |
Odds accurate as of November 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Bruins vs. Penguins Prediction — Why Is a Three-Game Skid Drawing the Money?
This game opened as a pure pick’em, with both sides at -110. Since then, the price has drifted a couple of cents toward Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, about 73% of moneyline tickets are on Boston. That is mild reverse line movement, and it deserves respect. The likely reason is regression. Boston has been outshot on average, taking about 26 shots per game while allowing about 28. Pittsburgh has been close to even in shot volume. The market seems to believe the Bruins’ record leans on finishing and goaltending that may cool off.
Still, goaltending is the biggest input in hockey, and that gap points to Boston. Swayman’s save percentage sits 25 points above Silovs’. Over a game with roughly 28 shots, that gap is worth about seven-tenths of a goal. Boston also wins draws, with Inside The Rink ranking it third at 54.6% while Pittsburgh ranks 31st at 45.6%. Boston has also allowed nearly a full goal per game fewer than Pittsburgh this season. Add a Penguins lineup missing Rust and possibly Malkin, and Boston’s recent form looks sturdier than the price suggests. At a near pick’em price, the team with the better goalie deserves the benefit of the doubt.
The case against is real. The line move is small, but it runs against the public and may reflect sharper money on Pittsburgh. The Penguins are also due for some close-game luck after six one-goal decisions this season. A Malkin return would lift their second line. This is a lean rather than a strong play, and it depends on Swayman starting. If DiPietro gets the net instead, the edge narrows.
The Pick: Bruins Moneyline (-108)
Bruins vs. Penguins Prediction — Does Boston’s Leaky Penalty Kill Meet a Bottom-Third Power Play?
Special teams usually drive an over, but here they point the other way. Boston’s penalty kill is middling at 76.4%. However, Pittsburgh’s power play converts only 18.2%, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. Boston’s power play runs at 20.0% against a Penguins kill working at 82.1%. Neither unit projects to tilt this game. At even strength, Boston averages only about 26 shots per game, which keeps the volume modest. Simple scoring blends of the two teams land a little above six goals, which is a touch below where the market sits. Boston’s own games have averaged just under six combined goals this season. The total also has not moved since it opened.
The over case is clear, though. Silovs is a below-average starter, and Boston scores at a top-10 rate. Three of the six games across both teams’ last three outings reached seven or more goals. Empty-net goals in close games also push totals higher. This is a thinner edge than the first pick. It also rests on the same input, since a Swayman start supports both plays.
The Pick: Under 6.5 (-108)
Our Final Word on Bruins vs. Penguins
Boston brings the better goalie, the better recent form and a healthier lineup into Pittsburgh. The market’s small move toward the Penguins is worth noting, but it does not outweigh the gap in net. Watch the goaltending confirmations before puck drop, since both picks depend on Swayman.
We like the Bruins on the moneyline at -108 because Swayman’s edge over Silovs is the biggest gap on the ice. We also like the Under 6.5 at -108 because neither power play projects to exploit the other team’s penalty kill.
NHL Bruins vs. Penguins FAQ: November 5, 2026
What time does the Bruins vs. Penguins game start?
The Bruins and Penguins face off at 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026. Boston is the road team, and Pittsburgh hosts. This is the first meeting between the two clubs this season, so it also opens the 2026-27 season series between the longtime Eastern Conference rivals.
What channel is the Bruins vs. Penguins game on?
The game airs on NESN for Bruins fans and on SportsNet Pittsburgh for Penguins fans. Both are the teams’ regional sports networks, so viewers in New England and western Pennsylvania can tune in there. Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM ET from PPG Paints Arena, and both broadcasts carry the full game.
Where are the Bruins and Penguins playing?
The Bruins and Penguins play at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The arena is the Penguins’ home rink, which gives Pittsburgh last change and the home crowd. Boston enters with a 4-3-1 road record this season, while the Penguins hope to end a three-game losing streak in front of their own fans.
What are the Bruins’ and Penguins’ records this season?
The Bruins are 11-4-1 with 23 points, and the Penguins are 5-8-2 with 12 points. Boston is 7-2-1 over its last 10 games and has won two straight. Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 over its last 10 and has lost three in a row, all by a single goal, heading into Thursday.
What was the season series between the Bruins and Penguins last season?
Boston went 2-0-1 against Pittsburgh in the 2025-26 season series. All three meetings were decided by a single goal. Boston won the first two meetings, and Pittsburgh took the finale in overtime last March. That history suggests another tight game is a realistic outcome on Thursday.