Our Stars vs Capitals prediction starts in goal. Jake Oettinger brings one of the NHL’s best save percentages into Capital One Arena on Tuesday night. The Dallas Stars and Washington Capitals are priced as a near coin flip, and the market has already changed its mind once. Dallas opened as the slight moneyline favorite, but Washington now holds that role. The total has also climbed from 5.5 to 6.0. Below, we break down the goaltending, the special-teams gap and the shot numbers before landing on two picks.
Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals — Time and How to Watch
| Where | Capital One Arena, Washington D.C. |
| When | November 3 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | Monumental Sports Network |
Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals Betting Preview
The goaltending matchup tilts toward Dallas on paper. Oettinger is 7-3-1 with a 1.62 goals-against average, a .921 save percentage and three shutouts. He has also owned this opponent. He carries a 6-0-0 career record against Washington with a .958 save percentage. Logan Thompson projects for the Capitals. He is 5-4-0 with a 2.92 GAA and a .898 save percentage, and he made 24 saves in Sunday’s loss. Neither starter was confirmed at the time of writing, so treat every read below as provisional until both goalies take the ice for warmups.
Dallas enters at 8-5-1 and fourth in the Central Division. The Stars beat Columbus 3-1 on Saturday after dropping their previous two games. They are 3-1-1 on the road and 6-3-1 in their last 10. Their identity is defense. Dallas allows a league-low 22.3 shots per game and leads the league at 2.14 goals against per game. The penalty kill sits at 93.6%, also tops in the NHL. The catch is offense. The Stars score just 2.64 goals per game, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Matt Duchene is out after surgery, which thins the middle of the lineup further.
Washington is 8-5-0 and third in the Metropolitan Division. The Capitals had won three straight before the Minnesota Wild beat them 5-1 on Sunday afternoon. Alex Tuch leads the attack with 10 goals, and Dylan Strome has 12 points. Washington scores 3.38 goals per game but allows 3.23. Its power play converts at only 17.6%, and its penalty kill sits at 77.3%. On the schedule, both teams are rested. Dallas has been off since Saturday, and the Capitals had Monday off in the middle of a three-game homestand.
The market picture is unusual for a game this even. Dallas opened at -112 on the moneyline, and Washington now sits at that same price. The puck line flipped with it, so the Capitals now lay the 1.5 goals at a plus price. Meanwhile, the total moved up a half goal from its opening 5.5. Public tickets are close to even on the puck line, with 53% on Washington. That balance makes the moneyline move more interesting, since the ticket count on that market leaned toward Dallas. We weigh that move against a goaltending edge that still favors the visitors.
Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stars | +1.5 (-280) | -108 | O 6.0 (+100) |
| Capitals | -1.5 (+230) | -112 | U 6.0 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of November 3, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Dallas Stars vs. Washington Capitals — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Stars | 47% | 53% | Capitals |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Stars vs. Capitals Prediction — Can Washington Generate Chances Against 22.3 Shots a Night?
Build this total from the crease outward and the low-event case stands out. Oettinger has allowed fewer than two goals per game this season. In front of him, Dallas gives up fewer shots than any team in the league. Add the two scoring rates together and an average Stars game lands near 4.8 goals. That leaves real room below the posted number. Special teams point the same way. Washington’s 17.6% power play meets a Dallas kill that has allowed only three goals on 47 chances. A game shaped by Dallas’ structure should not need many power-play goals to stay low.
The market sends a mixed signal. The total opened at 5.5 and rose to 6.0, which leans toward the over. However, the juice has since swung to the under side at the new number. That suggests the book is not inviting more over money at 6.0. Meanwhile, a total of exactly six goals would push rather than lose. At -120, the price implies a 54.5% break-even rate. Our read on a Dallas-style game clears that bar, though not by a wide margin.
The case against is clear. Washington’s own games run hot, with the Capitals scoring and allowing more than three goals per game. Thompson’s .898 save percentage is the softest piece of this matchup. Late empty-net goals also push hockey totals up, and Sunday’s 5-1 loss included one. A tied game also adds a goal in overtime or the shootout, since the full-game total includes both. Finally, if Dallas turns to its backup, this read weakens. It rests heavily on Oettinger.
The Pick: Under 6.0 (-120)
Stars vs. Capitals Prediction — Does Oettinger’s Perfect Record in This Matchup Hold Up?
The side comes down to who is better over a full game, and most of the research favors Dallas. The Stars have the better goalie by every season measure, the better penalty kill and the stingier shot profile. They are also the league’s top faceoff team at 55.6%, which helps them control possession. Dallas has won eight of its last nine against Washington. Mikko Rantanen leads the Stars with 17 points and has 21 career points against the Capitals.
Still, the market disagrees, and that deserves respect. Dallas opened as the moneyline favorite while drawing 60% of moneyline tickets. Yet the price moved toward Washington, which is reverse line movement on the home side. No source reports a reason for the move. The Capitals also get home ice, where they are 6-3-0, and Tuch has five goals in his last four games. The Dallas offense ranks near the bottom of the league, so a one-goal game could swing either way. For that reason, this is a lean rather than a strong play, and it shares the same Oettinger input as the total.
The Pick: Stars Moneyline (-108)