Our Texas State vs. Boise State prediction breaks down a late-night Pac-12 game on Halloween at Albertsons Stadium. No. 20 Boise State (6-1, 3-0 Pac-12) is an 11-point home favorite over Texas State (4-3, 2-1 Pac-12), and the total sits at 63.5. Both schools are in their first Pac-12 season, and this is their first meeting. Texas State brings one of the most productive offenses in the country. Boise State counters with one of the nation’s top rushers and a defense coming off a strong road performance. We walk through the matchup, the market and two picks below.
Last Updated: October 31, 2026
Texas State vs. Boise State — Time and How to Watch
| Where | Albertsons Stadium, Boise Idaho |
| When | October 31 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | The CW |
Texas State vs. Boise State Betting Preview
The quarterback matchup is a contrast in styles. Texas State’s Brad Jackson is a true dual threat. He has completed 133 of 194 passes for 1,606 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has also run for 382 yards and five scores. Boise State’s Maddux Madsen is the steadier operator. He has 14 touchdown passes, and the AP reports he has not thrown an interception all season.
Texas State’s offense ranks fifth nationally at 517.7 yards per game and scores 37.1 points per game. However, the unit has been volatile. Texas State piled up a school-record 716 yards in a 66-27 rout of Colorado State. One week later it managed just 250 total yards in a 20-17 home win over Utah State. That night needed a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown from Jaylen Jenkins and a late field goal from Jacob Bonilla. On the road, Texas State lost 59-7 at Texas and 31-29 at San Diego State. Its defense is the bigger concern, ranking 113th in yards allowed and 111th in scoring defense at 30.0 points per game.
Boise State’s only loss came in its opener at Oregon. Last week Boise State was tied 10-10 at Washington State entering the fourth quarter. Then it scored 21 straight for a 31-10 win at Washington State. Dylan Riley broke touchdown runs of 33 and 72 yards and finished with 128 yards on 13 carries. He has 963 rushing yards and nine total touchdowns this season. Texas State counters with Torrance Burgess Jr., who has 889 rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Boise State defense held Washington State to 53 rushing yards. On the injury front, Texas State running back Davian Jackson is listed as questionable on the Pac-12 availability report. He has not played since Week 5. Our Boise State vs. Washington State prediction covered last week’s spot for Boise State.
The market opened Boise State at 11 points with a 64-point total, and the spread has not budged since. That stability matters because 64% of spread bets are on Boise State. A number that holds under steady one-way action can hint at quieter money on the other side. Meanwhile, the total has dipped half a point. At -450, the moneyline implies an 81.8% chance of a Boise State win. The real debate here is margin rather than outcome.
Texas State vs. Boise State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | +11.0 (-112) | +350 | O 63.5 (-112) |
| Boise State | -11.0 (-108) | -450 | U 63.5 (-108) |
Odds accurate as of October 31, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Texas State vs. Boise State — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Texas State | 36% | 64% | Boise State |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Texas State vs. Boise State Prediction — Which Texas State Offense Shows Up in Boise?
The scoring projection starts with how Boise State wins games. Boise State ran 37 times for 258 yards at Washington State. That approach keeps the clock moving and limits possessions for a fast-paced opponent. Boise State allows 20.6 points per game, and its secondary gave up just one explosive pass play last week. In contrast, Texas State’s big offensive numbers were built largely at home. Its two road games produced seven points at Texas and 29 at San Diego State. Last week, even at home, it was held to 250 total yards by Utah State.
The market leans the same way. The number has slipped half a point from where it opened, even with the over now carrying slightly heavier juice. Blending the two teams’ scoring profiles also lands shy of this number. Boise State’s scoring averages add up to 55.0 combined points per game. Texas State’s add up to 67.1.
Still, the case against is real. Both teams have gone over in five of seven games this season. Texas State’s defense ranks 111th in scoring, so Boise State could reach 40 on its own. Riley also has four runs of 70-plus yards this season, and quick-strike touchdowns shorten drives and add possessions. This is a lean rather than a strong play, and the edge is thin.
The Pick: Under 63.5 (-108)
Texas State vs. Boise State Prediction — Texas State’s First Look at the Blue Turf
A common opponent frames the gap between these teams. Boise State beat Utah State 37-18 at home. Texas State needed a late field goal to beat the same Utah State team 20-17, also at home. Texas State is also 0-2 against the spread on the road, while Boise State covered a two-touchdown number at Washington State. Boise State’s ground game should find room against a defense allowing 404.4 yards per game. Riley has produced 963 rushing yards on just 140 carries.
On the other hand, the market has not fully bought in. Roughly two-thirds of spread tickets are on Boise State. Yet the number has not moved off its opener, and the juice has shaded toward Texas State. That freeze is a mild caution flag. Boise State is also just 1-2 against the spread at home, failing to cover large numbers against South Dakota and Utah State. Brad Jackson’s legs give Texas State a late backdoor path. This pick also leans on the same Boise State ground game as the first, so the two are not independent.
The Pick: Boise State -11.0 (-108)
Our Final Word on Texas State vs. Boise State
This sets up as a game Boise State wants to play on the ground, while Texas State needs its explosive offense to travel. Boise State sits No. 20 in the AP Top 25 and is unbeaten in league play. Texas State’s best path to an upset runs through Burgess and its ground game. Burgess has 889 rushing yards, and a healthy Davian Jackson would add depth behind him. If Texas State’s offense brings its home form on the road, it can keep pace on the scoreboard. That script would cut against both of our plays. Under 63.5 at -108 is our top play because Boise State’s run-heavy approach should limit possessions against an offense that has struggled away from home. Boise State -11.0 at -108 is the second play, backed by the common-opponent gap against Utah State.
NCAAF Texas State vs. Boise State FAQ: October 31, 2026
What time does the Texas State vs. Boise State game start?
Texas State and Boise State kick off at 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 31, which is 8:00 PM local time in Boise. The game is at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, home of the famous blue turf. It is a late Halloween-night start on Boise State’s home field.
What channel is the Texas State vs. Boise State game on?
The Texas State vs. Boise State game airs nationally on The CW. Rick Allen has the play-by-play call, with Will Blackmon as the analyst and Michael Bumpus reporting from the sideline. Boise State and the Pac-12 announced the network and the 8 p.m. Mountain kickoff on The CW back in May.
Is Texas State or Boise State ranked?
Boise State is ranked No. 20 in this week’s AP Top 25, tied with Northwestern, after climbing one spot following its win at Washington State. Texas State is unranked and did not receive votes in the AP poll. The College Football Playoff committee has not yet released its first rankings of the season.
What conference are Texas State and Boise State in?
Both schools play in the Pac-12, and this is a conference game. Each program is in its first season in the rebuilt league. Boise State arrived from the Mountain West, while Texas State joined from the Sun Belt. The result carries direct weight in the Pac-12 standings race.
What are Texas State’s and Boise State’s records this season?
Boise State is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in Pac-12 play, with its only loss coming in the season opener at Oregon. Texas State is 4-3 overall and 2-1 in the Pac-12. Texas State has won two straight, beating Colorado State 66-27 and Utah State 20-17.