Two members of the 2024 quarterback class meet under the lights when the New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football. Both teams enter at 4-2. Chicago is a 3-point home favorite with the total sitting at 51, and the line has not budged off the key number despite heavy public support for the road dog. Drake Maye has the Patriots on a three-game winning streak, while Caleb Williams just returned from a hamstring injury to beat Atlanta. Below are our best bets for the spread and the total.
Last Updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| When | Thursday, October 22 – 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears Betting Preview
New England arrives hot. The Patriots held off the Jets 26-19 on Sunday for their third straight win, and Maye threw three touchdown passes for the third consecutive start, per CBS Boston’s Week 6 recap. That puts New England second in the AFC East behind 5-1 Buffalo. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez also returned from a two-game absence in that win, and A.J. Brown made his first appearance back from injured reserve.
The win came at a cost, however. Both starting guards, Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and Ben Brown (knee), are ruled out, according to the official NFL Week 7 injury report. Right tackle Morgan Moses (foot) is questionable. The secondary is also thin. Carlton Davis III (neck) misses a third straight game, and rookie corners Karon Prunty and Channing Canada are out. Safeties Kevin Byard III and Craig Woodson are both questionable.
Chicago, meanwhile, got its quarterback back at the right time. Williams missed three games with a torn hamstring, then went 30-of-36 for 305 yards and a touchdown in a 31-23 win at Atlanta. He is off the injury report entirely this week. The Bears sit third in a crowded NFC North. Their injury list is shorter: running back Kyle Monangai and linebacker Jack Sanborn are out, linebacker T.J. Edwards is doubtful, and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson is questionable. D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson will handle the backfield again, and Kyler Gordon is back in the secondary after his return from injury. Revisit our Bears vs. Falcons prediction for how that one set up.
The last meeting went New England’s way. The Patriots won 19-3 at Soldier Field in November 2024, when both quarterbacks were rookies.
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +3 (-110) | +145 | O 51 (-110) |
| Bears | -3 (-110) | -170 | U 51 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, October 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Patriots | 72% | 28% | Bears |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Patriots vs. Bears Prediction — Is Public Right About Road Dog?
The most telling number here is what has not moved. Chicago opened at -3, and 72 percent of spread bets have landed on New England. Instead, the spread has held at 3 and the Bears moneyline has actually shortened from -165 to -170. That suggests the money backing Chicago is coming in larger amounts, even if the ticket count favors the Patriots.
The matchup supports that read. New England will start a patchwork interior line, with both regular guards out and Moses questionable. Pressure up the middle is the fastest way to disrupt a young quarterback, and Maye will be working behind backups on a short week on the road. On the other side, Williams was efficient in his return, and he now faces a Patriots secondary missing three cornerbacks with two starting safeties questionable.
Still, there is a real case for New England. Maye has thrown three touchdown passes in three straight starts, and his mobility can neutralize a pass rush by extending plays. Gonzalez is also back in the lineup to anchor the coverage. A 3-point spread also means a Patriots field goal loss still cashes for dog backers. Yet the combination of the injury report and the market’s refusal to move toward the public tilts this toward the home side.
The Pick: Bears -3 (-110)
Patriots vs. Bears Prediction — Will Both QBs Stay Hot?
The total opened at 50 and has climbed a full point to 51. Both offenses have reasons for optimism. New England has won three straight behind Maye’s hot stretch, scoring 26 against the Jets despite losing several starters mid-game. Chicago dropped 31 on Atlanta with Williams back under center. Meanwhile, both defenses enter short-handed. The Patriots are thin at every level of the secondary, and the Bears are missing two of their linebackers, with Edwards doubtful and Sanborn out.
The short week is the main risk. Both teams had limited practice time, and New England’s line issues could stall drives. Still, two quarterbacks playing at a high level against depleted coverage units point to points. The market has already moved up, and the matchup backs it.
The Pick: Over 51 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Because the spread sits exactly on 3, a Chicago win by a field goal would push. Bettors who like the Bears but want to avoid that outcome can look at the moneyline. At -170, it carries an implied probability of about 63 percent. It asks Chicago only to win, which fits our core handicap.
The downside is price. Laying -170 means risking $170 to win $100, so a Patriots upset is costly.
Bonus Pick: Bears Moneyline (-170)
Here is a recap of our Patriots vs. Bears best bets:
- Bears -3 (-110)
- Over 51 (-110)
- Bears Moneyline (-170)
NFL Patriots vs. Bears FAQ: Thursday October 22, 2026
What time does the Patriots vs. Bears game start?
The Patriots vs. Bears game kicks off at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 22, 2026. That is a 7:15 PM local start at Soldier Field in Chicago.
What channel is the Patriots vs. Bears game on?
The Patriots vs. Bears game streams nationally on Prime Video, which holds the exclusive Thursday Night Football package. NFL+ subscribers can also stream the game live on mobile devices, making Prime Video and NFL+ the two main ways to watch Thursday night’s Week 7 matchup.
Is Caleb Williams playing against the Patriots?
Yes. Caleb Williams carries no injury designation and is set to start for the Bears against the Patriots. He missed three games with a torn hamstring before returning last Sunday, when he completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown in a 31-23 win over the Falcons.
Who won the last meeting between the Patriots and Bears?
The Patriots won the last meeting 19-3 at Soldier Field on November 10, 2024. Both Drake Maye and Caleb Williams were rookies at the time. New England’s defense held Chicago without a touchdown in that Week 10 game, the only Bears points coming on a field goal.
Where do the Patriots and Bears stand in their divisions?
The Patriots are 4-2 and sit second in the AFC East, one game behind the 5-1 Buffalo Bills. The Bears are also 4-2 and rank third in the NFC North, behind the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers, who share Chicago’s record.