This Penguins vs. Avalanche prediction lands on a Friday night in Denver, with Colorado a clear home favorite. The Avalanche sit at -225 on the moneyline, and the Penguins come back at +185. The total opened at 6.5 goals and has not moved off that number. Both teams have leaned on goaltenders who are still finding their footing, and in hockey that input outweighs almost everything else. Pittsburgh also arrives in the first half of a back-to-back, with a late Saturday date in Las Vegas waiting. There is a real case for the home side here. There is also a case against paying this price for it. Two picks follow below.
Last Updated: October 16, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Colorado Avalanche — Game Info
| Where | Ball Arena, Denver Colorado |
| When | October 16 – 9:00 PM ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, Altitude, KTVD |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Colorado Avalanche Betting Preview
Colorado is 4-2-1 with nine points, which places the Avalanche fourth in the Central Division. They have scored 31 goals in seven games, and that output has not depended on one hot line. The underlying work supports it. Colorado has put 214 shots on net and allowed 176, a gap of more than five shots per game. However, the Avalanche have still conceded 22 goals. Their team save percentage sits at .886, which is the clearest soft spot on an otherwise strong roster.
Pittsburgh is 3-3-1 for seven points and sixth in the Metropolitan Division. The Penguins are 1-2-1 away from home. Their shot differential is almost exactly even at 199 for and 198 against. The more revealing number is their regulation record of 1-3-3. Only one of their seven games has ended in a regulation win, and three have gone past 60 minutes. This is a team that keeps games tight and then lets the finish decide them.
Daily Faceoff lists Scott Wedgewood for Colorado and Arturs Silovs for Pittsburgh, with neither start confirmed yet. Wedgewood is 1-0-1 with a .902 save percentage and a 2.40 goals-against average over two starts. He stopped 20 shots in Wednesday’s shootout loss to Dallas, the second half of a home-and-home that our Stars vs. Avalanche preview covered. Mackenzie Blackwood has taken the other five Colorado starts at a .879 save percentage. Silovs is 3-1-0 with a .885 mark for Pittsburgh. Backup Sergei Murashov has the better rate at .911, though he has yet to win a start.
Both blue lines are thin. Pittsburgh is without Trevor van Riemsdyk, Ryan Graves and Justin Brazeau, and acquired defenseman Ryan Johnson from Buffalo to patch the group. Colorado has Logan O’Connor on long-term injured reserve and Georgii Merkulov on injured reserve, with Nicolas Roy and Zachary L’Heureux day to day. Special teams pull in opposite directions. Colorado’s power play converts at 20.0%, while Pittsburgh’s penalty kill has been one of the league’s steadier units at 89.5%. This is the first meeting of the season. Colorado took the last one 6-2 in Pittsburgh back in March.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Colorado Avalanche Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penguins | +1.5 (-135) | +185 | O 6.5 (-120) |
| Avalanche | -1.5 (+115) | -225 | U 6.5 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of October 16, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Colorado Avalanche — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 48% | 52% | Colorado Avalanche |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Penguins vs. Avalanche Prediction — Colorado Outshoots Everyone, So Why the Leaky Net?
Start where hockey handicapping should start, which is in the two nets. Colorado has the better team in front of its goaltender and the worse numbers behind him. The Avalanche have stopped shots at a .886 clip as a group, with Blackwood at .879 across five starts and Wedgewood at .902 across two. Pittsburgh’s projected starter has been similar. Silovs owns a .885 save percentage through four appearances. Wedgewood’s rate rests on a two-start sample, so it carries little weight either way. Goaltending is the single largest input into how many goals a hockey game produces.
The results so far match the goaltending. Colorado’s seven games have averaged 7.6 total goals, and four of them produced at least seven. Pittsburgh’s seven games have averaged 6.7, with four also clearing seven. Across the fourteen team-games between them, eight have landed above where this number sits. Colorado shoots at 14.5% and generates volume from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas and Cale Makar. Pittsburgh is missing two regular defensemen and is handing minutes to replacements. Meanwhile, the full-game market here includes overtime and the shootout, and three of Pittsburgh’s seven games have already needed one or the other.
Here is the honest counterweight. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill at 89.5% is a genuine brake on Colorado’s best scoring tool. Three of Colorado’s seven games have finished with five goals or fewer, so this roster can play a quiet night. The market has not moved our way either. The number opened where it stands now, and the small price shift since then has drifted the other direction. That absence of confirmation keeps this a lean rather than a conviction play. Still, the goaltending read lines up from both ends, and nothing in the schedule or the lineups argues for a tighter game.
The Pick: Over 6.5 Goals, Full-Game Total (-120)
Penguins vs. Avalanche Prediction — Does a Saturday Night in Vegas Loom Over Pittsburgh?
The schedule is doing real work in this spot. Tonight is Pittsburgh’s second stop on a four-game road swing, and the Penguins play in Las Vegas on Saturday at 10:00 PM ET. That is the front half of a back-to-back at the end of a long travel leg, against a team that has not left Denver. Colorado’s shot share is the cleanest evidence of the gap. The Avalanche are outshooting opponents by better than five attempts a night. Three of their four wins have come by at least four goals. Pittsburgh, for its part, lost 5-3 in Chicago on Tuesday despite two goals from Sidney Crosby, who now sits on 656 for his career.
The case against is not thin, and it starts with Colorado’s own legs. The Avalanche are playing their third game in four nights after splitting the home-and-home with Dallas. Their goaltending has given back leads, which is the main reason a club with this shot profile has conceded 22 goals already. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has made a habit of hanging around, as our Penguins vs. Blue Jackets writeup noted after another one-goal finish in Columbus. The upside is that late empty-net goals routinely turn a one-goal game into a two-goal result. That factor cuts in Colorado’s favor here.
The Pick: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 Puck Line (+115)
Our Final Word on Penguins vs. Avalanche
Both plays here rest on the same underlying input, so they should not be read as independent reads. Each one assumes the goaltending here is beatable. Each is exposed if Wedgewood or Silovs plays well above his season rate. Neither start is confirmed, and a late change in either net would soften both. That is the risk worth naming before anything else.
We will take Over 6.5 goals on the full-game total at -120, with save percentages of .885 and .886 driving that read. We will also take Colorado on the -1.5 puck line at +115, with Pittsburgh opening a road back-to-back here.
NHL Penguins vs. Avalanche FAQ: October 16, 2026
What time does the Penguins vs. Avalanche game start?
Puck drop is set for 9:00 PM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026. That is 7:00 PM local time in Denver. The Penguins then play in Las Vegas the following night at 10:00 PM ET.
What channel is the Penguins vs. Avalanche game on?
SportsNet Pittsburgh carries the game for Penguins viewers, while Altitude and KTVD carry it in the Denver market. Out-of-market viewers can find it through NHL Power Play on ESPN+ instead of a regional network.
Where are the Penguins and Avalanche playing?
The game is at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, the Avalanche’s home building. Colorado is 2-1-1 at home this season, and Pittsburgh is 1-2-1 on the road.
Who won the last meeting between the Penguins and Avalanche?
Colorado won the most recent meeting 6-2 in Pittsburgh on March 24, 2026. The two clubs split last season’s series, with the Penguins taking the Denver game 7-2 a week earlier. Friday is their first meeting of 2026-27.
Where do the Penguins and Avalanche stand in the standings?
Colorado is 4-2-1 with nine points, fourth in the Central Division. Pittsburgh is 3-3-1 with seven points, sixth in the Metropolitan Division. Both teams have played seven games, so the gap is two points on equal footing.