This Avalanche vs Stars prediction covers a matchup of opposites at American Airlines Center on Tuesday night. Colorado scores more goals than any team in the NHL. Dallas allows fewer than any team in the NHL. The market cannot separate them, and both moneyline prices sit close to even. Below we work through the goaltending, the schedule spot and the two bets that stand out.
Last Updated: October 13, 2026
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars — Game Info
| Where | American Airlines Center, Dallas TX |
| When | October 13 – 8:30 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars Betting Preview
Start in the crease, because that is where this game gets decided. Jake Oettinger has been the sharpest goaltender in the league through two weeks. He has allowed three goals across four starts, with a .963 save percentage, a 0.74 goals-against average and two shutouts. Mackenzie Blackwood has gone the other way. He has stopped 85 of 98 shots in four starts for a .867 save percentage. On Saturday he allowed five goals on 22 shots in a 6-3 home loss to Toronto, including three on four shots in the second period. Neither club had confirmed a starter as of Tuesday morning, so this read stays provisional until the morning skates report.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | -1.5 (+215) | -117 | O 6.0 (-112) |
| Stars | +1.5 (-260) | -103 | U 6.0 (-108) |
Odds accurate as of October 13, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Colorado Avalanche | 36% | 64% | Dallas Stars |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The team profiles are near mirror images. Colorado leads the league at 5.2 goals per game and ranks third with 32.4 shots per game. However, the Avalanche have conceded 17 goals in five games, which places them 21st. Dallas has allowed 1.4 goals per game, the best figure in the NHL, and faces only 22.0 shots per night. The Stars have also scored just 11 goals all season. Colorado sits fourth in the Central Division with six points. Dallas sits sixth with five.
Dallas then lost a significant piece on Monday. Matt Duchene is out roughly three months after core surgery. The Stars finished ninth in goals per game last season at 3.33 and second on the power play at 28.6 percent. This year the power play has converted 7.7 percent. Colorado’s top end has been the opposite story. Nathan MacKinnon has 10 points in five games, and Cale Makar has added seven. Special teams tilt the same way. Colorado has converted 22.2 percent with the extra man while drawing 3.6 power plays per night. Dallas draws 2.6 and kills at 88.2 percent. In contrast, the Stars own the dot, winning 54.6 percent of their faceoffs to Colorado’s 51.4 percent.
The head-to-head record is unusually tight. These teams split four meetings last season, and three of them went to a shootout. Colorado took the most recent one 2-0 in Dallas on April 4. One scheduling wrinkle matters as well. This is the front half of a home-and-home, with the rematch in Denver on Wednesday, so both coaches are handling two games in two nights. For more of Tuesday’s card, see our Devils vs. Red Wings prediction.
Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction — What Dallas Loses Without Matt Duchene
Duchene’s absence lands on an attack that was already short of answers. Dallas has scored 11 goals in five games, and nine of those arrived in two blowouts of San Jose and Buffalo. Against Nashville, St. Louis and Pittsburgh, the Stars managed two goals combined. Coach Glen Gulutzan said that taking players like Duchene out of a lineup takes offense with them. The power play is the clearest symptom. It converted 28.6 percent a year ago and sits at 7.7 percent now.
The scoreboard effect has been consistent. Every Dallas game this season has finished with five goals or fewer between the two clubs. Some of that is Oettinger. The rest is structure. Dallas faces 22.0 shots per game, the third-lowest figure in the league, while generating 24.8 of its own. Colorado’s games have run the other way entirely, producing 43 goals across five nights. The number in this market sits between those two realities rather than beside either one. Meanwhile, Colorado’s power play was not the answer on Saturday. The Avalanche went 0-for-5 against Toronto and gave up their first two shorthanded goals of the season.
The case against is real, and it begins with Blackwood. Colorado has conceded three or more goals in four of its five games. Toronto put six past them on Saturday. The Denver Gazette reported that Natural Stat Trick credited the Maple Leafs with under three expected goals that night. That gap between chances allowed and goals allowed is the Blackwood risk stated plainly. One more factor argues against a quiet night. A trailing team pulls its goaltender late, and a tight hockey game often gains a goal in the final minute.
The Pick: Under 6.0 (-108)
Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction — Three Shootouts in Four Meetings Last Season
That history shapes how to back a side here rather than whether to. Three shootouts in four meetings tells you these clubs finish close, and a two-goal margin between them has been rare. Colorado still looks like the better team underneath. The Avalanche out-shoot opponents by 6.8 shots on goal per game. Dallas is nearer to even at plus 2.8, and the Stars have been carried by goaltending rather than by territory. That gap is the read.
The market has nudged the same way. Colorado opened at even money and has shortened since, while Dallas has drifted. However, that move follows the moneyline tickets rather than running against them, so treat it as agreement rather than as a sharp signal. The counterargument is straightforward. Oettinger is stopping nearly everything, Dallas is home, and Blackwood has not delivered the save his coach asked for. There is history behind that too. The NHL’s own game-day preview lists Oettinger at 7-3-3 in his career against Colorado. One caveat belongs on the record. This read and the first one lean on the same input, which is a Dallas offense that cannot find the net.
The Pick: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline (-117)
Our Final Word on Avalanche vs. Stars
Two games in two nights against the same opponent tends to flatten the edges, and this card carries an obvious dependency. Both goaltending calls were still projections on Tuesday morning, and a backup in either crease would change the shape of the game. Check the morning skate reports before acting on any of it. Our Capitals vs. Hurricanes prediction covers another close price on the same slate.
Under 6.0 (-108) is the stronger of the two, because no Dallas game this season has produced more than five goals. Colorado at -117 on the moneyline is the lighter lean, resting on a shot-share edge that Dallas has so far covered up with elite goaltending.
NHL Avalanche vs. Stars FAQ: October 13, 2026
What time does the Avalanche vs. Stars game start?
Puck drop is set for 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. The two clubs then meet again the following night in Denver, with that rematch also scheduled for 8:30 PM ET, making this the front half of a two-game, two-night home-and-home set between the Central Division rivals.
What channel is the Avalanche vs. Stars game on?
ESPN carries the game nationally in the United States. That national window is a change from the regional broadcasts both clubs use for most of their schedule, so viewers outside Colorado and Texas can watch without a local sports package on Tuesday night.
Where are the Avalanche and Stars playing?
The game is at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, the Stars’ home building. Dallas has gone 1-1-0 at home so far this season. Colorado is 1-1-0 on the road, with a loss in Winnipeg and a 7-3 win in Calgary on its most recent trip.
Who won the last meeting between the Avalanche and Stars?
Colorado won the most recent meeting 2-0 in Dallas on April 4, 2026. That shutout closed a season series the two clubs split 2-2. The three earlier meetings that year all needed a shootout, which is why this rivalry has produced so few comfortable margins.
Where do the Avalanche and Stars stand in the standings?
Colorado is fourth in the Central Division at 3-2-0 with six points. Dallas is sixth at 2-2-1 with five points. Only four points separate the top six clubs in the division, so a two-game swing this week could reorder the middle of the Central table quickly.
Is Matt Duchene playing tonight?
No. Duchene had surgery to repair a core injury and the Stars expect him out roughly three months. He had already been on long-term injured reserve since October 1 following a lower-body problem that lingered through training camp, and he posted 45 points in 57 games last season.