Our Flyers vs Senators prediction starts in the crease, where both teams carry questions into Ottawa’s home opener on Thursday night. The Senators are -155 favorites on the moneyline, the Flyers sit at +133, and the total is 5.5. Philadelphia arrives winless at 0-2-2, while Ottawa went 2-1 on a season-opening road trip. Below, we break down the goaltending, the market movement and two plays built from where the edge sits.
Last Updated: October 8, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Ottawa Senators — Game Info
| Where | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa Ontario |
| When | October 8 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia, TSN5 |
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Ottawa Senators Betting Preview
Start with Ottawa’s net, because it is the biggest unknown on the board. Linus Ullmark is 2-0-0 with a .949 save percentage, but he did not return for the third period on Monday in Boston. He then sat out Tuesday’s game in Detroit. Daily Faceoff projects Samuel Ersson to start tonight, though that projection was unconfirmed as of Thursday morning. Treat this read as provisional until the starters are named.
Ersson, whom the Senators acquired from Toronto for a fifth-round pick, stopped 31 of 35 shots in a 5-3 loss to the Red Wings. He owns a .886 save percentage through two appearances. Philadelphia’s crease is a split decision. Dan Vladar has a .863 save percentage in two starts, while Joseph Woll has been sharper at .929 across two overtime losses. Daily Faceoff lists Vladar as the projected starter, also unconfirmed.
The underlying numbers explain the Flyers’ start better than the goaltending does. Philadelphia averages 19.25 shots per game while allowing 39.5, and it has scored five goals in four games. Its power play is 0-for-11 through four games. The Flyers lost 7-0 to Pittsburgh in their opener, dropped overtime games to New Jersey and Carolina, then fell 4-1 in Tampa.
Ottawa has been steadier. The Senators beat Toronto 3-2 and Boston 4-1 before losing in Detroit, and they average 3.33 goals per game. Tim Stützle has six points in three games, and Drake Batherson has three. However, Ottawa’s power play is just 1-for-13, so neither team has leaned on special teams yet.
Lineup news matters on both sides. Defenseman Jake Sanderson has missed two straight games with an undisclosed injury, and his availability for the home opener is the item to watch. For Philadelphia, Rasmus Ristolainen missed Monday’s loss in Tampa after leaving the Carolina game early. Meanwhile, the schedule is fairly even. The Flyers last played Monday, while Ottawa played Tuesday and returns home after a three-game trip. Philadelphia opened with four games in six nights and visits Boston on Saturday afternoon. Ottawa swept last season’s three meetings, all by one goal and two in overtime.
The market has moved in two places since the open. Ottawa opened at -140 on the moneyline and has climbed to -155, while the puck line has barely budged. The total opened at 6 and dropped to 5.5, which points to early under interest. At 5.5, however, the over carries the juice at -125, so the market sees the new number as close to fair.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Ottawa Senators Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flyers | +1.5 (-198) | +133 | O 5.5 (-125) |
| Senators | -1.5 (+168) | -155 | U 5.5 (+105) |
Odds accurate as of October 8, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Ottawa Senators — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Flyers | 81% | 19% | Senators |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Flyers vs. Senators Prediction — Can an 0-for-11 Power Play Wake Up in Ottawa?
Philadelphia’s offense is the clearest signal in this game. The Flyers have scored 0, 2, 2 and 1 goals, and they are generating about half the shots their opponents are. Against Ottawa last season, they managed one, two and one goal. The last meeting ended when Stützle scored 47 seconds into overtime of a 2-1 win. In contrast, Ottawa has reached three goals in all three of its games.
That matters more than who wins. Philadelphia has finished with one goal or fewer in two of its four games while being badly outshot overall. Its power play has not scored, which removes the easiest route to a second goal. Even if Ottawa’s goaltending is shaky, the Flyers still have to generate the looks. Our read is that the market prices their scoring too generously.
The case against is real. The Flyers are shooting just 6.5%, a number likely to rise, and a .886 save percentage from Ersson is not a wall. Two of Philadelphia’s games also went to overtime, which adds time for a second goal. A late goalie pull in a one-goal game creates the same risk, since the extra attacker can produce that second Flyers goal.
The Pick: Both Teams To Score 2+ Goals – No (+140)
Flyers vs. Senators Prediction — Does Ullmark’s Exit in Boston Reshape Ottawa’s Home Opener?
Ottawa’s shot edge looks wide enough to survive a backup in net. The Senators average 26 shots per game and allow 28, while the Flyers sit near 19 and 40. The market agrees. Ottawa’s price has shortened since the open, even as 81% of puck-line bets landed on Philadelphia. That is reverse line movement, and it points to the home side.
The price is the catch. Ottawa has already moved, so the best of the number is gone, and the cushion for error is smaller than it was on Wednesday. Two of last season’s three meetings went to overtime, where a coin flip decides it. If Ullmark is cleared to start, the edge grows; if Woll starts for Philadelphia, it narrows. These two plays also rest on the same input, a Flyers attack that has struggled to create chances, so they are not independent.
Last season’s meetings also argue against needing a two-goal Ottawa margin. All three meetings last season were decided by one goal, and a large share of hockey games finish within a goal. A late empty-net goal is a real route to a wider margin. Still, it is too thin a path to lean on when winning the game is enough.
The Pick: Senators Moneyline (-155)
Our Final Word on Flyers vs. Senators
Goaltending confirmations will arrive closer to puck drop, and they matter more than usual tonight. An Ullmark start would strengthen both plays, while a Woll start for Philadelphia would trim the edge on each. Still, the gap in shot volume is large enough that the read should hold under most combinations. For more context on both teams, see our Flyers vs Lightning prediction and our Senators vs Red Wings prediction.
Both Teams To Score 2+ Goals – No at +140 is the stronger play, built on a Flyers attack with five goals in four games. The Senators moneyline at -155 is the second play, backed by a wide shot gap and a price that moved against the ticket count.
NHL Flyers vs. Senators FAQ: October 8, 2026
What time does the Flyers vs. Senators game start?
The Flyers and Senators face off at 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2026, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa. It is the Senators’ home opener after they began the season with three straight road games in Toronto, Boston and Detroit.
What channel is the Flyers vs. Senators game on?
NBC Sports Philadelphia carries the game for viewers in the Flyers’ market, and TSN5 has the broadcast in Canada. Puck drop from Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa is set for 7:00 PM ET, and it is the Senators’ first home game of the season.
What is the Flyers’ record this season?
The Flyers are 0-2-2 through four games, with two regulation losses and two overtime losses. That leaves them with two points and last place in the Metropolitan Division entering Thursday’s game in Ottawa. They have scored five goals and allowed 17 so far.
What is the Senators’ record this season?
The Senators are 2-1-0 after a three-game road trip to open the season, giving them four points. They beat Toronto 3-2 and Boston 4-1 before a 5-3 loss in Detroit on Tuesday. Thursday’s game against Philadelphia is their first at home this season.
What was the season series between the Flyers and Senators last season?
Ottawa won all three meetings with Philadelphia in 2025-26, each by one goal. The Senators won 2-1 in Ottawa in October, then won 3-2 and 2-1 in overtime in Philadelphia. The February meeting ended on a Tim Stützle goal 47 seconds into overtime.