This Senators vs. Red Wings prediction starts with two teams heading in opposite directions and an open question in Ottawa’s crease. The Senators arrive at 2-0-0 after road wins in Toronto and Boston, but Tuesday is the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit is 0-2-0 and has scored two goals in two home games. Meanwhile, the moneyline has flipped since it opened, and the total has climbed to 6. Below, we work through the goaltending, the schedule and the price before landing on two picks.
Last Updated: October 6, 2026
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings — Game Info
| Where | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit Michigan |
| When | October 6 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | DSN, TSN5, RDS2 |
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings Betting Preview
Goaltending is the first question, and neither starter is confirmed. Samuel Ersson is the projected Ottawa starter after Linus Ullmark left Monday’s 4-1 win in Boston after two periods. Ullmark was hurt in a crease collision with JJ Peterka. Coach Travis Green called the move precautionary. Still, one report lists Ullmark as questionable at best for Tuesday. He had a 1.20 goals-against average through two starts.
Ersson is the bigger variable. Ottawa acquired him from Toronto in June for a fifth-round pick. His final season in Philadelphia produced an .870 save percentage and a 3.12 goals-against average over 33 games. His career mark sits at .884. He stopped eight of nine shots in relief Monday, his only action for Ottawa so far.
Detroit’s projected starter is John Gibson, who has started both games. He owns a .915 save percentage and a 2.07 goals-against average, yet has no wins to show for it. Gibson won 29 games last season. Both starters are projections rather than confirmations, so every read below is provisional.
The schedule spot favors Detroit. Ottawa is playing its third game in four nights and travels in from Boston after Monday’s game. The Red Wings last played Sunday afternoon and have had two days off at home.
Injuries touch both lineups. Ottawa defenseman Jake Sanderson was hurt in the opener and was sent back to Ottawa for further testing. He is expected to miss the rest of the road trip. For Detroit, Dylan Larkin missed the first two games with an upper-body injury. Coach Todd McLellan said he hoped Larkin would return for the third game. However, his status for Tuesday had not been confirmed at the time of writing.
On the scoreboard, form tilts toward Ottawa. The Senators beat Toronto 3-2 and Boston 4-1, and Tim Stützle already has four points. Detroit lost 2-0 to the Rangers and 3-2 to Winnipeg. In contrast, the Red Wings have outshot their opponents while converting under four percent of their shots. Our Jets vs. Red Wings preview covered Detroit’s last outing.
The market has moved on both fronts. Detroit opened at -115 on the moneyline with Ottawa at -105, and the Senators are now the slight favorite. The total opened at 5.5 with the over at -138. It now sits at 6 with even juice on both sides. Puck-line tickets lean modestly to Detroit at 57%. No outlet has tied either move to a specific cause.
Last season’s series went Detroit’s way. The Red Wings won three of four meetings, two of them in overtime. Ottawa took the last one, 3-2 at Little Caesars Arena on March 24.
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senators | -1.5 (+225) | -112 | O 6.0 (-110) |
| Red Wings | +1.5 (-275) | -108 | U 6.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Ottawa Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Senators | 43% | 57% | Red Wings |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Senators vs. Red Wings Prediction — Is Detroit’s Two-Goal Start Bad Luck or a Real Problem?
Detroit’s results look worse than its play. The Red Wings have generated more shots than they have allowed, yet they have scored on under four percent of them. Ottawa sits at the other extreme, with seven goals on 53 shots and strong early goaltending from Ullmark. Process measures predict forward better than results do. Here, both sets of numbers point toward correction.
The spot adds weight to that view. Ottawa is on the second night of a back-to-back, likely with Ersson in net and without Sanderson on the blue line. Ersson’s .870 save percentage last season is a thin cushion for a road team on tired legs. Gibson, by contrast, has posted a .915 save percentage behind a team that has not scored for him. A Larkin return would only add to Detroit’s center depth.
The market disagrees, and that deserves respect. Detroit opened as the moneyline favorite, and Ottawa has since taken that role. Only 57% of puck-line tickets sit on Detroit, so the move runs against a narrow ticket majority. That is a point against this read, though the split is too close to call it clear sharp action. The case against Detroit is real, too. Its penalty kill has allowed four goals on eight chances, and Ottawa’s start is not all luck. Neither side’s price leaves much margin, since both ask for a win rate between 51 and 53 percent. The goaltending gap and the schedule tilt that coin flip, but the edge is modest.
The Pick: Red Wings Moneyline (-108)
Senators vs. Red Wings Prediction — What Does Ullmark’s Exit in Boston Change?
The change in Ottawa’s crease matters even more for the total than for the side. Ersson posted an .870 save percentage last season and owns an .884 mark for his career. That is a soft foundation for any under. Detroit’s finishing should also improve from its current rate. Meanwhile, the Red Wings’ penalty kill has been the weak spot, and Ottawa has drawn eight power plays in two games. Our Senators vs. Bruins preview covered Ottawa’s blue-line depth after the Sanderson injury.
Hockey’s late-game math helps as well. In a game priced this close, a one-goal lead late usually brings an empty net and often an extra goal. A tie after 60 minutes also adds a goal for totals purposes. The case against starts with Gibson, who has kept Detroit close in both games. Ottawa’s power play has yet to score, and a final landing exactly on the number would push. The market has already lifted this total from its opener, so the best number is gone. This rates as a lean. It also rests on the same Ersson projection as the Detroit pick, so the two reads are not independent. If Ullmark starts instead, both weaken.
The Pick: Over 6.0 (-110)
Our Final Word on Senators vs. Red Wings
Both picks hinge on Ottawa’s crease, so the confirmed starters are worth checking before puck drop. Red Wings Moneyline (-108) is the top play, backing a rested Detroit team against an Ottawa side on a back-to-back. Over 6.0 (-110) is the second play, built on Ersson’s .870 save percentage last season.
NHL Senators vs. Red Wings FAQ: October 6, 2026
What time does the Senators vs. Red Wings game start?
The Senators vs. Red Wings game starts at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2026. Puck drop is at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. It is Detroit’s third home game of the season and the final stop on Ottawa’s season-opening three-game road trip.
What channel is the Senators vs. Red Wings game on?
The Senators vs. Red Wings game airs on Detroit SportsNet (DSN) as the Red Wings’ home broadcast. Viewers in Canada can watch on TSN5 and RDS2. Those are the outlets listed for this game on the league schedule, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM ET.
Where do the Senators and Red Wings stand in the standings?
Ottawa sits first in the Atlantic Division at 2-0-0 with four points. Detroit is eighth and last in the Atlantic at 0-2-0 and is still looking for its first point. Both clubs have played only two games, so the division table will shift quickly.
What is the Senators’ record this season?
The Senators are 2-0-0 this season, with both wins coming on the road. They beat the Maple Leafs 3-2 in Toronto on Saturday and the Bruins 4-1 in Boston on Monday. Tim Stützle leads the team with four points, including two goals Monday.
Who won the last meeting between the Senators and Red Wings?
Ottawa won the last meeting 3-2 on March 24, 2026, at Little Caesars Arena. That regulation win was the Senators’ only victory over Detroit in four meetings last season. The Red Wings took the other three, including two in overtime.