Our Sharks vs. Stars prediction covers two teams that have opened the season in opposite directions. San Jose is 2-0-0 after back-to-back overtime wins at home. Dallas is 0-2-0 and has scored one goal all season. Still, the market makes the Stars a -172 favorite at home, with the total set at 6.5. Below, we break down the goaltending matchup, the special teams gap and the line movement before landing on two picks.
Last Updated: October 5, 2026
San Jose Sharks vs. Dallas Stars — Game Info
| Where | American Airlines Center, Dallas Texas |
| When | October 5 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video (Dallas market), NBC Sports California |
San Jose Sharks vs. Dallas Stars Betting Preview
Start in the crease. Yaroslav Askarov is the projected starter for San Jose after making both starts on the opening homestand. He has stopped 54 of 61 shots for a .885 save percentage. That is close to the .883 mark he posted over 47 games last season. Jake Oettinger is projected for Dallas. He allowed two goals on 22 shots in the opener, while Casey DeSmith took the back half of the back-to-back in Nashville. Neither start had been confirmed at the time of writing, so treat this read as provisional. The Hockey News also suggested Alex Nedeljkovic could get one of San Jose’s two road games this week, in Dallas or St. Louis.
Oettinger brings the stronger track record. He went 35-12-6 with a .899 save percentage last season and has not played since Friday’s opener. Dallas won two of the three meetings last season. However, San Jose took the most recent one, 5-4 in overtime on January 10.
The early records flatter San Jose and punish Dallas. The Sharks have been outshot 61-57 across two games and needed overtime both nights after letting leads slip. Macklin Celebrini has driven the offense with five assists in two games. He is coming off a 115-point season that included 45 goals. Dallas, in contrast, has outshot its opponents 55-50 but scored only once. In the opener covered in our Blues vs. Stars prediction, Joel Hofer stopped all 25 shots in a 4-0 St. Louis win. The next night, Juuse Saros made 29 saves in a 2-1 Nashville win.
San Jose’s scoring has come from more than its top line. Igor Chernyshov scored twice against Los Angeles, including the overtime winner. Luca Cagnoni, meanwhile, scored the overtime winner against Florida. Dallas has shown flashes but little finish. Miro Heiskanen scored 47 seconds into the Nashville game, and the Stars did not score again. In the opener, St. Louis had the lead 94 seconds in and never gave it back.
Special teams are where the matchup tilts. Dallas converted 28.6% of its power plays last season, while the Sharks killed only 76.4% of theirs. That Dallas unit has started 0-for-5. Meanwhile, San Jose has already allowed three power-play goals in two games. On the injury front, Matt Duchene remains on long-term injured reserve for Dallas. San Jose is without Adam Gaudette and Alex Barre-Boulet, and Jacob Trouba is listed day-to-day with an illness.
San Jose Sharks vs. Dallas Stars Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | +1.5 (-172) | +147 | O 6.5 (+102) |
| Stars | -1.5 (+147) | -172 | U 6.5 (-122) |
Odds accurate as of October 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
San Jose Sharks vs. Dallas Stars — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Sharks | 52% | 48% | Stars |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Sharks vs. Stars Prediction — Two Overtime Wins or One Goal in Two Games: Which Start Is Real?
Process outweighs results this early in a season. Dallas has generated more shots than it has allowed and has simply run into two goaltenders who were sharp. A team that averaged 3.33 goals per game last season is unlikely to keep scoring at this pace. San Jose’s 2-0-0 start, on the other hand, came with no regulation wins and a negative shot count. Askarov’s save percentage has sat in the .880s across last season and this one. That is the weakest position on the ice tonight, and the Sharks allowed 3.54 goals per game last season behind him and Nedeljkovic.
The price asks a lot, though. The Dallas number opened at -165 and has shortened since, and the current price implies a win probability above 63%. The puck line split sits near even, at 52% on San Jose and 48% on Dallas. That is too close to read as the public pulling one way while the line moves the other. The move toward Dallas offers mild agreement with the read but no sharp signal, and the opening number is gone. As a result, we grade this a lean rather than a strong play.
The case against is real. Dallas has not scored on the power play yet, and Celebrini can tilt a game on his own. The Sharks also won the last meeting. If Nedeljkovic starts instead of Askarov, the goaltending edge narrows, since he posted a .896 save percentage last season. Even so, a rested Oettinger at home against a team that leaked goals last season is the strongest side on the board. This is the full-game market, so overtime and the shootout count.
The Pick: Stars Moneyline (-172)
Sharks vs. Stars Prediction — Do Last Season’s 22 Goals in Three Meetings Still Matter?
Last season’s three meetings produced 5, 8 and 9 goals. Both San Jose games this season have produced at least seven goals, at 7 and 9 including overtime. The market has drifted the same way since the open. The Over opened at +107 and has shortened, while the Under has drifted from its -128 opening price. The Over is still a plus-money price, so it needs to cash less than half the time to break even. San Jose’s goaltending and penalty kill are the soft spots, and Dallas has the power play to punish both.
Late-game script matters here too. A trailing team pulls its goaltender, and St. Louis scored its final two goals of the opener into an empty net. A game tied after 60 minutes also adds at least one more goal for totals purposes. The risk is Dallas’ cold start, with three total goals in its two games, and a rested Oettinger in his own building. This pick leans on the same goaltending and power play read as the side, so the two plays are not independent. The full-game total includes overtime and the shootout.
The Pick: Over 6.5 Total Goals (+102)
Our Final Word on Sharks vs. Stars
San Jose’s start has come from overtime finishes and Celebrini’s playmaking. Dallas has been the better shot team with almost nothing to show for it. Check both starting goaltenders before puck drop, because a Nedeljkovic start would soften both reads.
The Stars moneyline at -172 is our top play, with a rested Oettinger facing a Sharks team that allowed 3.54 goals per game last season. The Over 6.5 at +102 is our second play, built on Dallas’ 28.6% power play against a Sharks penalty kill already beaten three times.