Minnesota is 3-0, Miami is 0-3, and the market has spent the week drifting toward the winless team. The Minnesota Vikings host the Miami Dolphins at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday afternoon as 9.5-point favorites, down from an 11-point opener. The total sits at 38.5, among the lowest numbers on the Week 4 board. That pairing says plenty about how these two offenses have actually played. Below we break down the form, the injuries, and the two sides we are backing, plus a bonus angle.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings — Time & How to Watch
| Where | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis MN |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 4:05 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview
Minnesota sits alone atop the NFC North at 3-0. The Vikings opened with a 39-22 home win over Green Bay, ground out a 9-3 victory at Chicago, then handled Tampa Bay 23-16 on the road. Brian Flores’ defense carried all three. Minnesota has allowed just 13.7 points per game, and the Bears managed one field goal in Week 2.
The offense is a different story. Kyler Murray is the starter after Minnesota traded J.J. McCarthy to the Giants in late September. Murray has not found rhythm yet, and national coverage has flagged the unit as the clear limiting factor on an otherwise unbeaten team. Now the Vikings lose their best player for this one. Justin Jefferson was officially ruled out with an ankle injury on the final Week 4 report. Running back Jordan Mason is also on injured reserve. NFL.com put it plainly this week in noting the Murray-led offense has to raise its game.
Miami arrives in rough shape. The Dolphins are last in the AFC East at 0-3 with a minus-50 point differential. They fell 27-13 to Las Vegas, 35-13 at San Francisco, and 24-10 to Kansas City. Miami has not scored more than 13 points in a game. Malik Willis is taking the snaps, and running back De’Von Achane is out for the season with a torn ACL. In fairness, the schedule has been brutal. Each of Miami’s first four opponents entered undefeated.
There is history on the Minnesota sideline. Flores coached Miami from 2019 through 2021, so Sunday is his first look at the franchise that fired him. The teams last met on October 16, 2022, when Minnesota won 24-16 in Miami. For how the Vikings looked a week ago, see our Week 3 Vikings prediction from Sept. 27.
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +9.5 (-105) | +450 | U 38.5 (-110) |
| Vikings | -9.5 (-115) | -650 | O 38.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Dolphins | 30% | 70% | Vikings |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction — Can the Winless Road Dog Keep This Close?
Start with the market, because it is sending a mixed message. Minnesota opened at -11 and now sits at -9.5. Meanwhile, 70 percent of spread tickets are on the Vikings. When the public leans that hard on a favorite and the number still drops a point and a half, the money and the tickets are not agreeing. Jefferson’s absence explains part of the move. The rest looks like a market reassessing how many points this offense can produce.
That is the heart of the case for Miami. Covering 9.5 requires scoring, and the Vikings managed 9 points at Chicago and 23 at Tampa Bay in their last two games. Take away their best receiver and the math gets harder. Flores’ defense can win this game without much help, but winning by double digits is a different assignment. Miami’s defense, meanwhile, has been the functional half of its roster, holding Kansas City to 24 after San Francisco put up 35.
The case against is real. Miami has lost by 14, 22, and 14, so backing the Dolphins inside 9.5 means trusting a team that has not been within single digits all season. Willis has not solved the offense, Achane is gone, and a pick-six or special-teams score would end this quickly. The 1.5-point move also means some value is already priced in. Still, at a number this high against an offense that has topped 23 points once, we will take the points.
The Pick: Dolphins +9.5 (-105)
Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction — Is There Enough Offense Here to Clear the Number?
The total has not budged from its 38.5 open, which is unusual in a week where the side moved a point and a half. Look at the raw scoring and the reason becomes clear. Minnesota is averaging 13.7 points allowed, and Miami is averaging 12 points scored. Two of the Vikings’ three games finished with 39 and 12 combined points. Miami’s three games produced 40, 48, and 34. Add a Jefferson-less passing attack against the league’s stingiest scoring defense and the under has an obvious path.
The counterargument deserves weight. Minnesota hung 39 on Green Bay in Week 1, so a big afternoon is not off the table, and Miami has allowed 28.7 points per game. A 38.5 total is already a low bar. Four touchdowns and two field goals between them clears it comfortably. The number is tight, but the scoring trend points one way.
The Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The bonus angle sits on the moneyline. Miami is +450 here, up from a +430 open, and that price implies roughly an 18 percent chance of an outright win. Minnesota’s 9-3 escape in Chicago is the template Miami would need. Hold the Vikings to one score, win the turnover battle, and steal a short-field touchdown.
We would keep this one small. Miami has not reached 14 points in a game, so asking it to win outright on the road is a stretch. The spread is the cleaner expression of the same idea. For more of this week’s board, see our latest NFL picks coverage.
Our picks for Dolphins at Vikings: Dolphins +9.5 (-105), Under 38.5 (-110), and a small-stake Dolphins moneyline (+450).
NFL Dolphins vs. Vikings FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
What time does the Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings game start?
Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026. That places the game in the late-afternoon Sunday window rather than the 1 p.m. ET block. Local time in Minneapolis is 3:05 p.m. CT.
What channel is the Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings game on?
FOX has the broadcast. Kevin Kugler handles play-by-play with Daryl Johnston on color analysis and Allison Williams reporting from the sideline. In the Twin Cities the game airs on FOX 9, the network’s local affiliate.
Where are the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings playing?
The game is at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the Vikings’ home since 2016. It is Miami’s first visit to the building since 2018, and the Dolphins are the road team for this Week 4 matchup.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings?
Malik Willis starts for Miami, and Kyler Murray starts for Minnesota. Murray took over as the Vikings’ clear starter after the team traded J.J. McCarthy to the New York Giants in late September. Carson Wentz is listed behind Murray on the Minnesota depth chart.
Who won the last meeting between the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings?
Minnesota won the most recent meeting 24-16 on October 16, 2022, in Miami. The teams meet roughly once every four years under the NFL’s rotating interconference schedule, so Sunday is only their second matchup in the past decade.