No. 18 USC hosts Washington under the Coliseum lights on Saturday night, and the market has drifted toward the visitors all week. The Trojans opened as a 10-point favorite and now sit at -9, while the total has climbed from 55.5 to 58. Both teams arrive stung. USC lost 41-27 to Oregon at home, and Washington fell 27-24 to Minnesota in its Big Ten opener. One side of this spread looks mispriced, and the total tells its own story.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026
Washington vs. USC — Time & How to Watch
| Where | United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles CA |
| When | Saturday, October 3 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
Washington vs. USC Betting Preview
USC arrives at 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten, ranked No. 18 in the AP Top 25. The offense has been the story. Quarterback Jayden Maiava leads the FBS in passing yards (1,499) and touchdown passes (14), and the Trojans average 39.8 points and 325 passing yards per game. The defense is the soft spot. USC allows 26.4 points per game, and linebacker Desman Stephens II is serving a one-game suspension for his hit on Oregon quarterback Dante Moore. That thins an already stretched second level, a concern we raised in our recent USC picks coverage.
Washington sits at 3-1 and 0-1 in conference play, unranked in this week’s poll. The Huskies are the better defensive team on paper, surrendering 16.8 points and 178.8 passing yards per game. The offense is the problem. Washington averages 28.0 points and just 107.3 rushing yards per game, and injuries to its top two running backs have gutted the ground game. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. threw for 239 yards and two scores against Minnesota but was intercepted twice. Washington has not topped 24 points against an FBS opponent, a ceiling flagged in our recent Washington picks coverage.
The series history cuts against the favorite. USC leads all-time 51-32-4, but Washington has won the last three meetings, including 26-21 in Seattle in 2024. Both programs left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, so the familiarity remains.
Washington vs. USC Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | +9 (-110) | +285 | O 58 (-110) |
| USC | -9 (-110) | -370 | U 58 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 3, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Washington vs. USC — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Washington | 33% | 67% | USC |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Washington vs. USC Prediction — Is the Home Favorite Getting Too Much Respect?
Start with the disagreement between the money and the number. Two-thirds of spread tickets are on USC, yet the line has moved the other way. The Trojans opened at -10 and now sit at -9, and the moneyline has shortened from -410 to -370. When a clear majority backs the favorite and the price still improves for the underdog, the sharper money is usually on the other side.
The case for USC starts with the mismatch of styles. Washington cannot run the ball. The Huskies average 107.3 rushing yards per game without their top two backs, which leaves Williams carrying the offense alone against a crowd that knows it. Meanwhile, USC gets Maiava at home in prime time. Both teams have been poor against the number, USC at 1-4 and Washington at 0-4, so neither arrives with market momentum.
Still, nine points asks USC to do something it has not done against this opponent in three tries, with a defense ranked outside the top 100 in scoring and missing a starting linebacker. Washington’s defense is the better unit by a wide margin at 16.8 points allowed per game. A Huskies team that keeps this in the 20s does not need to win to cover. The risk is clear, however. If Washington stalls early and the USC passing attack gets rolling, the margin can grow quickly.
The Pick: Washington +9 (-110)
Washington vs. USC Prediction — Can Two Uneven Offenses Reach 58?
The total opened at 55.5 and has been bid up to 58, a meaningful move. The logic is straightforward. USC averages 39.8 points per game and has gone over in four of five games. Add Washington’s 28.0 points per game and the combined average sits above the posted number. USC’s defense ranks 101st in scoring, which gives the Over a believable path.
The counterargument is arithmetic. For 58 to land, Washington realistically needs to clear 24 points, and it has not done that against an FBS opponent all year. Without its top two backs, it lacks the clock-controlling run game that sustains long scoring drives. Washington’s defense is also the best unit on the field. The Over still wins if USC alone piles up 40-plus, which is within range for this offense.
The Pick: Under 58 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
One secondary angle is worth a look for bettors who want more upside than the spread offers. Washington’s moneyline has shortened from +305 to +285 since the market opened, consistent with the point-spread move. A team that has beaten this opponent three straight times, carrying a top-35 scoring defense into a building where the home side just lost by 14, is a defensible small-stake play. The caveat is that an outright win requires Washington’s offense to be functional rather than merely competitive, and the Minnesota game offered little evidence of that.
Put together, the view is that USC is the better team at the wrong price. The Trojans should win. Covering nine against a defense this stingy, with a short-handed linebacker group of their own, is a different question. Our three positions are the underdog on the spread, the Under on the total, and a small look at the Washington moneyline.
Bonus Angle: Washington moneyline +285 (small stake)
NCAAF Washington vs. USC FAQ: Saturday October 3, 2026
What time does the Washington vs. USC game start?
Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET, or 4:30 PM PT in Los Angeles, on Saturday, October 3, 2026. The game sits in the Big Ten’s Saturday night window, with pre-game studio coverage beginning at 7 PM ET ahead of the broadcast from the Coliseum.
What channel is the Washington vs. USC game on?
The game airs on NBC, with a simultaneous stream on Peacock. Noah Eagle handles play-by-play and Todd Blackledge works as the analyst. Radio coverage is available on ESPN LA 710 AM and through SiriusXM satellite radio.
Where are Washington and USC playing?
The game is at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California, USC’s home stadium. Saturday night is also USC’s homecoming and reunion weekend, which should mean a loud environment for the Trojans in conference play.
Who won the last meeting between Washington and USC?
Washington won the last meeting 26-21 in Seattle on November 2, 2024. The Huskies led 20-7 at halftime, watched USC take a 21-20 lead in the third quarter, then scored the deciding touchdown late. That result extended Washington’s current run to three straight wins in the series.
Who is starting at quarterback for Washington and USC?
Demond Williams Jr. starts for Washington and Jayden Maiava starts for USC. Maiava leads the FBS in passing yards and touchdown passes through five games. Williams threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns in Washington’s loss to Minnesota but was intercepted twice in that game.