Our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction lands on the American League Wild Card Series opener in the Bronx. New York sits at -136 on the moneyline, and the total has been pushed down to 6. That is a short number for a ballpark with this reputation, and the way it got there matters. Cam Schlittler and Payton Tolle have each shredded the opposite lineup this season. Below is the full read on the matchup, the market and where the value sits.
Last Updated: September 29, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — Game Info
| Where | Yankee Stadium, Bronx NY |
| When | September 29 – 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | +1.5 (-195) | +114 | O 6.0 (-120) |
| Yankees | -1.5 (+165) | -136 | U 6.0 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of September 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Boston Red Sox | 19% | 81% | New York Yankees |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
New York finished 93-68 and second in the AL East. Boston finished 87-75 and third. All three games of this best-of-three series are in the Bronx, and the Yankees earned that by winning the season series 7-6.
That series record undersells how the games actually went. Boston batted .199 with a .579 OPS against New York this season, its worst OPS against any opponent. The Red Sox went 2-4 at Yankee Stadium and were outscored 34-15 there. September did not fix anything. Boston finished dead last in the majors in runs scored for the month, with 63 across 21 games, a .221 average and a .656 OPS. Willson Contreras, their best hitter, appeared in only four September games after a hand injury.
New York has its own lineup question. Aaron Judge strained his right calf on September 16. He had still not resumed baseball activities as of Sunday, per Aaron Boone’s update on Judge’s availability. Manager and training staff planned to settle the roster this week. The Yankees managed without him before, going 52-43 and averaging 4.22 runs per game in the 95 games he missed. Still, that is a meaningful step down from a hitter who posted a .905 OPS against Boston.
The bullpens are the quiet story. Boston’s relief corps posted the lowest ERA in baseball at 3.00. New York’s was right behind at 3.15. Both managers can shorten a game, and in a best-of-three opener neither will hold anything back. Our Orioles vs. Yankees moneyline prediction from last week covered the same New York pen at full strength.
Now the market. New York opened at -148 and has drifted to -136, while Boston moved from +124 to +114. Meanwhile 81% of run-line tickets sit on the Yankees. That is reverse line movement, and it is the single most useful signal the board offers. Money is landing on the less popular side. The total tells the same story, opening at 6.5 and settling at 6. Both moves point away from New York’s offense.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction — Is Total too Low in Game 1?
Start with the right-hander. Schlittler closed the regular season at 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA across 33 starts. He struck out 239 in 193.2 innings and walked only 49. That is 11.1 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine. His 2.56 FIP says the run prevention is real rather than a defensive mirage. Against Boston he has been something else entirely. He went 2-1 with a 0.74 ERA in four starts against them this season. He also owns a 0.55 ERA across five career starts versus the Red Sox.
Tolle is no giveaway either. The rookie left-hander finished 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.096 WHIP and 171 strikeouts in 148.2 innings. His 3.04 FIP matches the ERA almost exactly, which means the process holds up. Against this specific lineup he has been excellent, posting a 0.69 ERA and a 0.538 WHIP with 18 strikeouts in 13 innings over two starts. Behind both arms sit the two best bullpens in the sport. Boston’s offense ranked last in the majors in September scoring. New York may be without its captain. The run expectation gets thin in a hurry.
The case against is fair. Yankee Stadium sits around league average for total run scoring, but it plays up home runs, and one swing rewrites a 2-1 game. Postseason managers also pull starters early, so a duel can become a bullpen parade by the sixth. Tolle is a rookie making his first playoff start, and traffic against him would push the game the other way. However, the number has already come down, so nobody is capturing the opener here. This is a read on the current price, not a claim to a stale one.
The Pick: Under 6 (+100)
Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction — Will Schlittler Dominate?
Schlittler’s strikeout profile travels, and it travels best against this opponent. He has 39 punchouts in 32.1 career innings versus Boston. Last October he closed their season out with eight scoreless innings, 12 strikeouts and no walks. That made him the first pitcher in MLB history with 8-plus innings, 12-plus strikeouts, no runs and no walks in a postseason game. Recent form agrees. He fanned 10 over seven innings on September 8 and nine over eight on September 2. His finale was a deliberate 70-pitch, three-inning tune-up, so he arrives rested and stretched for a full night’s work.
There are holes to poke. Boston struck out less often than New York did this season, and a patient approach can drive a pitch count up and an outing short. A best-of-three opener also invites a fast hook if he wobbles early. Worth saying plainly too: this leans on the same right arm as the first play. Treat the two as one read rather than two independent ones. Even so, the price is generous relative to what he has done to this lineup. The strikeout market is where his edge shows up most cleanly. For more on how New York has handled recent short-series pressure, see our Rays vs. Yankees prediction from September 24.
The Pick: Cam Schlittler 9+ Strikeouts (+215)
Our Final Word on Red Sox vs. Yankees
One caveat belongs on the record. Both reads assume Schlittler and Tolle take the ball as announced, and both clubs were still finalizing rosters this week. Garrett Crochet’s availability for Boston remained unsettled, which could change how the middle innings look. If either starter changes, the whole framework changes with it.
The under at 6 (+100) is the play. Both starters have suppressed the opposite lineup, and the two lowest bullpen ERAs in baseball sit behind them. Schlittler 9+ strikeouts (+215) follows at a price that looks generous against a Boston offense he has punched out 39 times in 32.1 career innings.
MLB Red Sox vs. Yankees FAQ: September 29, 2026
What time does the Red Sox vs. Yankees game start?
First pitch is set for 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. This is Game 1 of a best-of-three American League Wild Card Series, with Game 2 on Wednesday and a Game 3 on Thursday if needed. All three are scheduled for the same 8 PM ET window.
What channel is the Red Sox vs. Yankees game on?
The game airs on NBC. The 2026 Wild Card round moved to NBC Sports platforms, and all four Wild Card Series are carried there this year. Coverage of Game 1 begins ahead of the 8:00 PM ET first pitch at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
How can I stream the Red Sox vs. Yankees game?
Peacock carries the stream for this game. The service streams the full NBC broadcast, so viewers without a cable package can watch Game 1 live there. NBC’s own listing and Boston regional coverage both confirm Peacock as the streaming home for this Wild Card Series.
Who is pitching for the Red Sox tonight?
Rookie left-hander Payton Tolle gets the Game 1 start for Boston. He finished the regular season 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.096 WHIP and 171 strikeouts across 148.2 innings in 26 starts. New York counters with right-hander Cam Schlittler, who posted a 1.95 ERA.
What is the season series record between the Red Sox and Yankees?
New York won the 2026 regular season series 7-6 over 13 meetings. The margin was closer than the production suggests. Boston hit just .199 with a .579 OPS in those games, its worst mark against any opponent. The Red Sox also went 2-4 at Yankee Stadium and were outscored 34-15 there.
Where do the Red Sox and Yankees stand in their division?
Both finished behind Tampa Bay in the AL East. The Yankees came second at 93-68 and the Red Sox third at 87-75. The two took the top wild card spots in the American League. New York’s better record earned it home field for every game of this series.