The Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays close the 2026 regular season at Rogers Centre on Sunday afternoon. Toronto is a firm home favorite at -181, and neither club has anything left at stake. The pitching is what makes it interesting. Max Scherzer is lined up on short rest in what could be the final start of a Hall of Fame career. Our headline play sides with the road team, and the market’s refusal to move is a big reason why.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| When | Sunday, September 27 – 3:07 PM ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, Reds.TV |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Start with Scherzer, because the whole price runs through him. He is 3-9 with a 6.14 ERA across 17 starts. His last five outings produced 14 earned runs in 27.2 innings, a stretch ranging from seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Seattle on August 30 to six earned runs against Baltimore on September 11. He threw 93 pitches on September 23, striking out seven over five innings. The short turnaround was his own request. He sits four strikeouts behind Justin Verlander’s 3,554 on the all-time list, and he has said he hopes to pitch Sunday.
Williamson is no bargain either, but he is on normal rest. The left-hander is 5-4 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 49.2 innings. He has reached the sixth inning only twice in 11 appearances, and he walked five in 4.1 innings at Los Angeles on September 7. The upside is that he allowed just eight earned runs across his last five outings, including six scoreless against Atlanta on September 22.
The clubs split the first two games. Toronto took the opener 6-5 on a four-run seventh. Cincinnati answered with a 5-1 win behind six innings from Rhett Lowder. The Reds arrive 75-86 and fifth in the NL Central. Toronto sits 78-83 and last in the AL East. Both bullpens are workable, since rookie John Klein absorbed four innings on Saturday.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 (-150) | +149 | U 8.5 (-105) |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 (+130) | -181 | O 8.5 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of September 27, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Reds | 32% | 68% | Blue Jays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Reds vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Why Won’t This Number Move?
The market read is the cleanest signal on the board. The moneyline opened Reds +149 and Blue Jays -181, and it has not moved a cent since. Meanwhile 68 percent of run-line tickets sit on Toronto, and the moneyline split is more lopsided still. Heavy recreational money that fails to shift a price is a line freeze, which usually means the house is content to keep taking that action. That is not proof of anything. It is a quiet vote for the less-popular side, and that side is priced at plus money.
The price is the second problem for Toronto backers. At -181, the Blue Jays must win 64 percent of the time to break even. That is steep for a 78-83 club that scored roughly four runs per game, and steeper still behind a starter carrying a 6.14 ERA on three days of rest. Cincinnati at +149 needs to be right about 40 percent of the time. Between clubs separated by three games, that gap is where the value sits.
The case against has a name. Scherzer owns a 1.67 ERA and 95 strikeouts across 10 career starts against Cincinnati. That history is dated, though. He last faced the Reds in July 2022. The larger risk is that Cincinnati cannot hit anyone. Their .229 team batting average ranks last in the majors. Short rest also cuts both ways, since a brief outing hands the ball to a rested Toronto bullpen early.
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+149)
Reds vs. Blue Jays Prediction — Can Either Starter Get Through Five?
The total is a separate question, and it does not depend on who wins. Neither starter projects to work deep. Williamson has averaged barely over four innings across his last five outings, and Scherzer is on short rest after 93 pitches. That points toward eight or nine bullpen innings between them. Rogers Centre also plays marginally to the hitters, with a multi-year runs index near 102.
Cincinnati’s pitching is the bigger lever. The Reds carry a team ERA near 4.85, which ranks 28th in baseball, and they allowed more than 800 runs. For a Toronto offense that has struggled all year, this is close to its friendliest matchup in weeks. The counter is straightforward. Toronto managed one run on Saturday, and two weak offenses can combine for a quiet afternoon. Still, the market leans this way. The total opened 8.5 with both sides at -110, and the over has since been bid up while the number held.
The Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Watch the first two innings. If Scherzer’s command looks normal, the short-rest concern largely evaporates and Toronto’s price makes more sense. If he labors, Toronto is into its bullpen by the fifth in a game nobody needs to win. There is a Scherzer strikeout storyline here, but we will not put a number on it without a posted price, and the same applies to the first-five-innings markets. For more on this series, see Saturday’s Reds vs. Blue Jays prediction.
To recap the plays for Sunday’s finale: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+149) and Over 8.5 (-115). Both rest on the same read, which is that Toronto’s starter is priced better than his 2026 season suggests. If that read is wrong, both positions likely miss together, and that correlation is worth accounting for in sizing.
MLB Reds vs. Blue Jays FAQ: Sunday September 27, 2026
What time does the Reds vs. Blue Jays game start?
First pitch is 3:07 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This is the finale of a three-game weekend series and the last regular-season game of the year for both clubs. The Blue Jays and Reds split the first two games of the set.
What channel is the Reds vs. Blue Jays game on?
The game airs on Sportsnet in Canada and on Reds.TV in the Cincinnati market. Regional blackout rules apply to both feeds, so availability depends on where you are watching from. Out-of-market viewers can stream the broadcast through MLB.TV instead, and first pitch is set for 3:07 PM ET.
Who is pitching for the Blue Jays today?
Max Scherzer is lined up to start for Toronto on short rest. The right-hander is 3-9 with a 6.14 ERA across 17 starts in 2026. He last pitched on September 23 in Baltimore, throwing 93 pitches over five innings. Cincinnati counters with left-hander Brandon Williamson.
Where are the Reds and Blue Jays playing today?
The game is at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, with Toronto as the home team. The venue has a retractable roof and grades as very slightly hitter-friendly, with a multi-year runs index around 102 against a league average of 100. Cincinnati finishes its season on the road.
Who won the last meeting between the Reds and Blue Jays?
Cincinnati won 5-1 at Rogers Centre on Saturday, September 26. Rhett Lowder worked six innings for the Reds, and Toronto managed a single run. That followed Toronto’s 6-5 win in Friday’s opener, a game the Blue Jays turned with a four-run seventh inning.