No. 22 SMU opens a four-game home stand on Saturday night, and the number is the story. The Mustangs are 33.5-point favorites over Missouri State at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, a spread asking a 2-1 team coming off a loss to bury a second-year FBS program by five touchdowns. There is also a wrinkle the market cannot price cleanly. Bears head coach Casey Woods spent four seasons as SMU’s offensive coordinator. Both picks below lean on what that familiarity, and a shrinking spread, suggest about how this one plays out.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Missouri State vs. SMU — Game Info
| Where | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas TX |
| When | Saturday, September 26 – 9:00 PM ET |
| TV | ACC Network |
Missouri State vs. SMU Betting Preview
SMU arrives at 2-1 overall and 1-1 in the ACC after a 41-31 loss at Louisville. The offense has not been the problem. The Mustangs average 38.0 points and 537.0 yards per game, and Kevin Jennings has thrown for 989 yards with nine touchdowns, four interceptions and a 73.6 percent completion rate. Kendrick Raphael posted a career-high 197 yards and three scores in the loss. The defense is where the cracks showed. Louisville ran for 265 yards, and SMU lost the turnover battle 3-0.
Missouri State is 1-2 in Woods’ first year, competing in Conference USA in just its second season at the FBS level. Quarterback Skyler Locklear, a UTEP transfer, has completed 44 of 65 throws for 597 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. He threw for 309 yards and two scores in a 30-24 home loss to Marshall, with Isaiah Myers catching seven balls for 141 yards. The Bears drove 86 yards on the final possession and stalled at the 7. The flaws are obvious, though. Missouri State allows 31.33 points and 207.0 rushing yards per game, and it has committed 30 penalties for 218 yards in three games.
This is a non-conference game, and the series is one meeting old. SMU won 28-10 in Springfield in September 2025, spoiling Missouri State’s first home game as an FBS member. The Mustangs sit No. 22 in the AP Top 25 after falling from No. 16. Woods also brought several former SMU assistants with him to Springfield.
Missouri State vs. SMU Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | +33.5 (-110) | – | U 60 (-110) |
| SMU | -33.5 (-110) | – | O 60 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, September 26, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Missouri State vs. SMU — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Missouri State | 50% | 50% | SMU |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Missouri State vs. SMU Prediction — Can the Bears Keep It Within the Number?
Start with the movement. This spread opened at 35 and now sits at 33.5, handing a point and a half back to the visitors. The spread percentages are split evenly at 50-50, so there is no crowd to fade. That is unusual in a game this lopsided, and it hints the number is doing honest work rather than absorbing favorite money.
The case for the visitors starts with the only data point the two programs share. SMU won the 2025 meeting by 18, against a Missouri State team in its first week of FBS home football. Woods now knows SMU’s system and personnel from the inside. There is also a route to controlling possession. SMU allows 175.3 rushing yards per game and gave up 7.2 yards per carry to Louisville, so Ramone Green Jr. and Breezy Dubar can keep drives alive. A margin this large usually needs a short-field score or two, and SMU has been giving possessions away rather than stealing them.
The case against is real. SMU scores 38 points per game and is home to open a long stand, and Rhett Lashlee’s offense tends to answer a loss with volume. Missouri State’s 30 penalties are the sort of self-inflicted damage that turns a competitive first half into a runaway third quarter. Still, the number asks a lot, and we would rather hold the points than lay them.
The Pick: Missouri State +33.5 (-110)
Missouri State vs. SMU Prediction — Will the Blowout Script Slow This Total Down?
The total opened at 58 and has climbed to 60, adding two points of scoring expectation since the market went up. The reasoning is easy to follow. SMU averages 537.0 yards per game, Missouri State allows 31.33 points per game, and SMU’s three games have combined for 63.0 points on average. Sixty is no stretch if the favorite keeps its foot down.
The other side rests on how these games usually unfold. Missouri State has scored 24.0 points per game, its three games have averaged only 55.3 combined points, and Woods has pointed to red-zone finishing as the offense’s main shortfall. When a favorite this large builds a lead, the second half tends to feature backups, a heavier ground game and a running clock. That caps the favorite’s ceiling and does nothing for the underdog. The risk is worth naming: if SMU hangs 45 in three quarters and the Bears trade scores, this sails over. Our Longhorns-Roadrunners breakdown worked through a similar total.
The Pick: Under 60 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No moneyline is posted for this game in the market we track, so there is no outright price to argue with and no alternate-line angle worth forcing. That leaves the spread and the total, and both positions point the same way: closer and lower than the opening numbers implied. What would make us wrong is simple. Early turnovers breaking SMU’s way, a couple of short fields, and another double-digit penalty count from the Bears produces a 45-13 night that beats both sides at once. For another wide number this weekend, compare our Howard-Rutgers spread breakdown.
Our picks for this game: Missouri State +33.5 (-110) on the spread, and Under 60 (-110) on the total.
NCAAF Missouri State vs. SMU FAQ: Saturday September 26, 2026
What time does the Missouri State vs. SMU game start?
Kickoff is 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 26, 2026, which is 8:00 PM local time in Dallas. SMU is hosting as part of its Family Weekend slate, and it is the first of four straight home dates for the Mustangs.
What channel is the Missouri State vs. SMU game on?
The game airs on ACC Network. SMU’s membership in the ACC places its home non-conference games on the league’s television package, so viewers need a cable or streaming subscription carrying ACC Network to watch the broadcast live on Saturday night.
Where are Missouri State and SMU playing?
The game is at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas, SMU’s on-campus home. This is a standard home game rather than a neutral-site meeting, and it begins a four-game stretch in which SMU does not leave Dallas.
What conference are Missouri State and SMU in?
SMU competes in the ACC and is 1-1 in league play this season. Missouri State is a member of Conference USA and has not yet opened its conference schedule. That makes Saturday a non-conference game with no bearing on either league’s standings.
Who won the last meeting between Missouri State and SMU?
SMU won the only previous meeting, 28-10, on September 13, 2025, in Springfield. That game was Missouri State’s first home contest as an FBS program. Saturday is the second meeting between the two schools and the first played in Dallas.