Wisconsin walks into Beaver Stadium on Saturday evening as a 10-point underdog, and the most revealing number on this board is not the spread. The total has fallen from 46.5 at the open to 44.0, one of the lowest figures on the Week 5 slate. Penn State is 3-0 in Matt Campbell’s first season and has outscored three non-conference opponents 127-22. However, the Nittany Lions have not faced a Power 4 team yet, and they play this one without their most explosive receiver. Our read on the spread, the total, and one bonus angle follows.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026
Wisconsin vs. Penn State — Game Info
| Where | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| When | Saturday, September 26 – 5:00 PM ET |
| TV | Peacock (streaming only) |
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Betting Preview
Penn State beat Marshall 45-0, Temple 27-9, and Buffalo 55-13. Quarterback Rocco Becht followed Campbell from Iowa State and has been efficient from the first snap. The defense has been the headline, though. Three opponents managed 22 points in total, and Buffalo was held to 173 yards and 1-of-15 on third down.
The roster news cuts against that. Receiver Koby Howard will miss an extended period of time, though Campbell says it is not season-ending. Howard had 12 catches and averaged close to 29 yards per reception, which made him the engine of the deep passing game. Center Brock Riker and tight end Andrew Rappleyea are questionable.
Wisconsin is 2-1 in Luke Fickell’s fourth season. The opener was a 41-13 loss to Notre Dame at Lambeau Field. The Badgers then scored 90 points in home wins over Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan. Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph has 752 passing yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions, including a 362-yard game against Eastern Michigan.
The ground game is the problem. Wisconsin ranks 117th nationally in rushing yards per game, which matters for a program built on controlling the line. Running back Abu Sama III, another Iowa State transfer, says he expects to play after missing last week. Receiver Malachi Coleman is questionable in concussion protocol. Penn State leads the series 12-9 and has won six straight, most recently 28-13 at Wisconsin in 2024.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | +10.0 (-110) | +305 | O 44.0 (-110) |
| Penn State | -10.0 (-110) | -410 | U 44.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of September 26, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Wisconsin vs. Penn State — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Wisconsin | 37% | 63% | Penn State |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Prediction — Is the Home Favorite Getting Too Much Respect?
The spread has not moved. It opened at 10 and sits at 10, with the juice on the home side drifting from -105 to -110. Meanwhile, 63 percent of spread tickets are on Penn State. That is a lean, not a stampede, and it is modest for an unbeaten ranked team hosting an unranked visitor.
The case for the visitor starts with what Penn State has actually beaten. Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo are the résumé, and none tested this offense the way a Big Ten front will. Losing Howard removes the element that turned those games into blowouts, because he was the vertical threat that stretched coverage. Wisconsin also protects well, allowing two sacks on 89 drop-backs, which keeps Joseph on schedule against a defense that feeds on third-and-long.
The case against is serious. Penn State has allowed 7.3 points per game, Wisconsin’s rushing attack ranks in the bottom quarter of FBS, and the Badgers’ two wins came against an FCS team and a MAC team. Notre Dame handled them by 28. Ten is a fair number on talent. It is a thin number on schedule strength. Our Northwestern vs. Indiana prediction covers another Big Ten matchup this week.
The Pick: Wisconsin +10.0 (-110)
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Prediction — Why Did This Total Fall Two and a Half Points?
The total opened at 46.5 and now sits at 44.0. A move that size usually reflects a market recalculating pace and personnel at once. Penn State’s defense has been the best unit either team has put on the field, and the Howard injury trims the ceiling on the offense that was supposed to push this number up. Wisconsin’s inability to run cuts both ways. It limits scoring, but it also shortens possessions when drives stall.
The argument the other way is recent scoreboard evidence. Wisconsin put up 36 and 54 in consecutive weeks, and Joseph’s 362-yard game shows an offense capable of moving quickly. Penn State has averaged better than 42 points per game itself. If both quarterbacks play clean, 44 is reachable by the middle of the fourth quarter. The counterweight is opponent quality on both sides of that evidence.
The Pick: Under 44.0 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The subplot worth watching is the Iowa State reunion. Campbell coached in Ames for a decade, Becht was his quarterback there, and Sama is now trying to run against both. Familiarity tends to compress games rather than expand them, because neither staff springs much the other has not seen.
For bettors who want leverage on the underdog rather than the cushion, Wisconsin’s moneyline is the same opinion at a longer price. It is a small-stake angle, not a core position, and it asks the Badgers to win outright on the road. Our latest college football picks coverage has more from this weekend.
The Bonus: Wisconsin Moneyline (+305)
All picks here: Wisconsin +10.0 (-110), Under 44.0 (-110), and a small-stake Wisconsin moneyline at +305.
NCAAF Wisconsin vs. Penn State FAQ: Saturday September 26, 2026
What time does the Wisconsin vs. Penn State game start?
Kickoff is 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The game is the Big Ten opener for both teams and follows Penn State’s non-conference stretch against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo. It is the first meeting between the two programs since the 2024 season.
What channel is the Wisconsin vs. Penn State game on?
The game is not on broadcast television or cable. Peacock holds exclusive streaming rights, so viewers need a Peacock subscription to watch. Big Ten teams are each scheduled for one Peacock-exclusive appearance per season, and this is the date that falls to these two.
Where are Wisconsin and Penn State playing?
The game is at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. Penn State is 5-3 at home in the all-time series against Wisconsin. The Badgers have not won in State College in more than two decades, and they have dropped six straight meetings overall dating back to 2012.
Who won the last meeting between Wisconsin and Penn State?
Penn State won 28-13 at Wisconsin in 2024. The Nittany Lions outscored the Badgers 21-3 in the second half after a tight first three quarters. That result extended Penn State’s winning streak in the series to six games and moved the all-time record to 12-9.
Who is starting at quarterback for Wisconsin and Penn State?
Rocco Becht starts for Penn State and Colton Joseph starts for Wisconsin. Becht transferred from Iowa State with head coach Matt Campbell and has passed 10,000 career passing yards. Joseph came from Old Dominion and has 752 passing yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions.