The Texas Rangers land at Target Field on Friday with their season hanging on three games, and the market finds little daylight between them and a Minnesota Twins team already eliminated. Texas is 79-80, a half-game up on Houston in the AL West, but the Astros own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Jacob deGrom starts against Joe Ryan, the moneyline is near even money, and the total is 7.5. Our strongest read comes from what both lineups have not been doing lately.
Last Updated: Friday, September 25, 2026
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| When | September 25, 2026 — 8:10 PM ET |
| TV | Twins.TV, Rangers Sports Network, CW33 |
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
The pitching matchup is where this game starts. deGrom carries an 11-10 record, a 3.86 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 196 strikeouts over 158 2/3 innings. His September has swung hard in both directions. He struck out 12 without a walk over six shutout innings at Seattle on Sept. 10, then fanned eight in five innings against Boston five days later. His last outing was the ugly one: four walks and three runs in 4 1/3 innings against Toronto on Sept. 20.
Ryan is 6-10 with a 1.18 WHIP and 151 strikeouts, and he is still working back from a month on the injured list with a left glute strain. In his most recent start he went five innings against the Angels, allowing seven hits and two runs with five strikeouts and one walk. Encouragingly for Minnesota, he generated 18 whiffs and topped out at 95.8 mph in that outing, a sign the velocity is returning.
Recent form favors neither offense. Minnesota is 5-5 over its last 10 games, hitting .238 with a 2.96 team ERA. Texas is 6-4 in the same span but batting just .219 with a 3.80 ERA. The Rangers are 34-44 on the road this season. The Twins are 75-84 overall and 40-38 at home, sitting third in the AL Central with nothing left to chase.
Lineup context matters. Minnesota is without Byron Buxton, who underwent season-ending hip surgery on Sept. 19, and Trevor Larnach is out with a wrist injury. Brooks Lee has carried the load with 24 home runs and 83 RBIs. For Texas, Josh Jung is the hottest bat at .341 in 11 games since returning from the injured list on Sept. 12. Corey Seager snapped an 0-for-15 stretch with his 19th homer Thursday. Minnesota swept all three meetings in Texas in June.
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | -1.5 (+155) | -115 | U 7.5 (-110) |
| Twins | +1.5 (-180) | -105 | O 7.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of September 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Rangers | 52% | 48% | Twins |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Rangers vs. Twins Prediction — What Happens When Both Bats Go Quiet?
Start with the run environment rather than the side. Over the last 10 games these clubs have hit .219 and .238, and Minnesota’s staff has been the better of the two at 2.96. The Twins are also running out a lineup missing Buxton and Larnach, which strips two dangerous bats from a group already scuffling. Texas has managed its winning stretch on run prevention, not offense.
The starters support the same read. deGrom’s 1.10 WHIP and 11.1 strikeouts per nine keep base traffic thin even on nights his command wobbles. Ryan has been solid rather than sharp since returning, but his last outing showed he can still miss bats in volume. With both starters projecting into the fifth or sixth against cold lineups, 7.5 leaves less room than it appears.
The market nudges the same way, gently. The total opened at 7.5 with the over at -115 and the under at -105. Both sides now sit at -110, so the juice has drifted a nickel toward the under. That is a modest signal, not a loud one. The counter-case is real. deGrom walked four in his last start and did not finish the fifth. Ryan gave up seven hits in five innings his last time out. At a number this low, one three-run inning undoes the thesis.
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
Rangers vs. Twins Prediction — Does a Must-Win Change Anything?
The side is a closer call, and the price says so. Texas at -115 and Minnesota at -105 is about as close to a coin flip as baseball gets. The case for the Rangers is the obvious one. They have the better starter on talent, and they need all three games to have any shot at the division. The Twins are eliminated. Our Mets vs. Rangers pick from Thursday covers how Texas got here, and today’s Cubs vs. Red Sox prediction has the rest of the Friday card.
The case against is just as easy to make. Texas is 34-44 away from home, was swept by this same Twins club in June, and is hitting .219 over its last 10 games. Minnesota is 40-38 at Target Field. The market read is not much help either. Roughly 61% of moneyline tickets are on Texas, yet the number has moved only from a pick’em open to -115. Movement that small in the direction of the popular side is expected rather than informative, so this one is a lean built on the starter and the stakes, not a play with the market behind it.
The Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Both plays rest partly on the same pitcher, and that is worth saying plainly. If deGrom repeats the Toronto version of himself, both positions are in trouble at once. That is the honest risk here.
The swing moments come early. deGrom’s walk total through three innings will tell you which version showed up. Whether Ryan holds his velocity a second time through the order will tell you whether Minnesota gets length. Late innings matter too. Jordan Montgomery closed out Thursday’s win with a perfect ninth, and Texas has no reason to hold anyone back in a final weekend that decides the AL West. We are not adding a third play. The two positions above are where the analysis landed.
Recap of our picks for Friday night at Target Field: Under 7.5 (-110) and Rangers Moneyline (-115).
MLB Rangers vs. Twins FAQ: Friday September 25, 2026
What time does the Rangers vs. Twins game start?
First pitch is set for 8:10 PM ET on Friday, September 25, 2026, which is 7:10 PM local time in Minneapolis. It is the opener of a three-game series and the final regular-season series for both clubs, with Saturday and Sunday games to follow at Target Field.
What channel is the Rangers vs. Twins game on?
The game airs on Twins.TV in the Minnesota market and on Rangers Sports Network in the Texas market, with CW33 also carrying the broadcast locally in Dallas-Fort Worth. Coverage of the following two games in the series is listed on the same regional outlets.
Who is pitching for the Rangers tonight?
Jacob deGrom starts for Texas. The right-hander is 11-10 with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 196 strikeouts across 158 2/3 innings in 2026. Minnesota counters with right-hander Joe Ryan, who is 6-10 with a 1.18 WHIP and 151 strikeouts on the season.
What is the season series record between the Rangers and Twins?
Minnesota leads the season series 3-0. The Twins swept all three games at Globe Life Field in June, winning 4-2, 12-2 and 9-3. Friday’s game is the fourth of seven scheduled meetings between the clubs in 2026, with the final three all at Target Field.
Where do the Rangers and Twins stand in their divisions?
Texas is 79-80 and a half-game ahead of Houston atop the AL West, though the Astros hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, so the Rangers must finish alone in first. Minnesota is 75-84, third in the AL Central and already eliminated from postseason contention.