The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees close their season series at Yankee Stadium on Thursday night, and both clubs already know where they are headed in October. Tampa Bay wrapped up the AL East and the American League’s No. 1 seed on Tuesday. New York has locked in the top wild card. What is left is a pitching matchup with real teeth, a -153 moneyline on the home side, and a total of 6.5 that the market has quietly been pushing one way.
Last Updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| When | Thursday, September 24 — 7:05 PM ET |
| TV | YES Network, Rays.TV |
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Betting Preview
Start with the arms, because they shape everything else here. Cam Schlittler carries a 14-6 record, a 1.94 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and 234 strikeouts into his final regular-season start. His last five outings have been close to untouchable. He has given up three earned runs across 32 2/3 innings in that stretch, including eight innings of two-hit ball at the Angels on September 2.
Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, per the league’s official probable pitchers listing. His season line is unremarkable at 9-11 with a 4.56 ERA and 152 strikeouts, but that number is badly out of date. Peralta has allowed three earned runs over his last five starts, a span of 28 2/3 innings, and he held Houston hitless across five frames on September 13. Between them, the two listed starters have given up six earned runs in their last 10 outings.
The standings explain the mood. Tampa Bay is 96-62 and clinched the AL East and home field through the ALCS in Tuesday’s doubleheader nightcap. New York sits at 91-67 and has already secured the top American League wild card, so its seed is set too. The Yankees did take Wednesday’s meeting 9-2 behind four home runs, which is the loudest recent data point in the series.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | +1.5 (-180) | +128 | U 6.5 (-110) |
| Yankees | -1.5 (+155) | -153 | O 6.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, September 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Rays | 19% | 81% | Yankees |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction — What Happens When Both Teams Are Already In?
Six earned runs in 10 combined starts is the headline, and the market has noticed. The number opened at 6.5 with the Over juiced to -120 and the Under at +100. It now sits at -110 on both sides. The line never moved, but the price did, and it moved toward the low side. That is a small, clean signal, and it lines up with the pitching.
The lineups add to the case. Aaron Judge has been on the injured list since September 19 with a right calf strain, and his earliest realistic return is the September 27 finale. On the other side, Kevin Cash sat Yandy Diaz, Chandler Simpson and Taylor Walls on Wednesday. A club that has banked the top seed has every reason to keep doing that in a game that decides nothing.
The counter-argument is real, and it is about leash length. Clinched teams do not always let a starter work deep in late September, and two five-inning tune-ups would hand eight innings to the bullpens. Tampa Bay’s relievers already covered the final 12 outs on Wednesday. New York also put four balls over the wall that night, and 6.5 is a thin number. This is a lean, not a certainty.
The Pick: Under 6.5 (-110)
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction — Is the Public Getting the Better of This Price?
The market read here is more interesting than the matchup read. Bettors have piled onto the home side, with 81 percent of run-line tickets and 86 percent of moneyline tickets on New York. Yet the moneyline has barely budged, opening at -150 and sitting at -153. That is a near-freeze against one-way ticket count, which usually means the money is not following the tickets. Tampa Bay’s run line has also come down from -195 to -180, so the contrarian side is cheaper than it was at the open.
Structure favors the road team too. A home favorite laying -1.5 has to win by two without batting in the ninth with a lead, and low-scoring games tend to end on one-run margins. The case against is the juice. At -180 you need roughly 64 percent to break even, and a club with nothing to play for can empty its bench by the sixth. That risk is why this sits second rather than first.
The Pick: Rays Run Line +1.5 (-180)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Both plays rest on the same read, and that is worth saying plainly rather than dressing one up as independent. If this turns into a bullpen game by the fifth, both positions weaken together. That is the honest risk profile of a finale between two teams whose October slots are stamped.
Watch two things before first pitch. The first is the lineup card. If Tampa Bay posts a close-to-regular batting order, the run-line side gets stronger and the total gets shakier. The second is the early pitch count. For contrast, see our prediction on Wednesday’s meeting looked at the same question one night earlier, and that one got away from the low side in a hurry.
There is no third angle worth forcing, and the prop and first-five markets are not priced cleanly enough to recommend here. Recap of every pick in this article: Under 6.5 (-110), and Rays Run Line +1.5 (-180).
MLB Rays vs. Yankees FAQ: Thursday September 24, 2026
What time does the Rays vs. Yankees game start?
First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. It is the fourth and final game of the series, and the last scheduled meeting between the two clubs in the 2026 regular season.
What channel is the Rays vs. Yankees game on?
The game airs on the YES Network for Yankees viewers and on Rays.TV for Tampa Bay viewers. Those are the two listed broadcasts for Thursday night, and no national television window is attached to this particular game in the four-game series.
Who is pitching for the Yankees tonight?
Right-hander Cam Schlittler starts for New York. He enters at 14-6 with a 1.94 ERA and 234 strikeouts, and he has allowed no more than one earned run in each of his last five starts. Tampa Bay lists right-hander Freddy Peralta.
Where are the Rays and Yankees playing today?
The game is at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York. Tampa Bay is the road team for this four-game set, which included a split doubleheader on Tuesday after a postponement pushed a game into the final week.
Who won the last meeting between the Rays and Yankees?
New York won 9-2 on Wednesday, September 23, at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees hit four home runs, with Ben Rice accounting for two of them. Gerrit Cole started and worked into the sixth inning before the bullpen finished it.