The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles meet again at Camden Yards on Tuesday night, and both clubs are running out of runway in the AL wild-card race. Baltimore is a -121 moneyline favorite, with Toronto at +101 and the total sitting at 7.5. Chris Bassitt takes the ball for the Orioles against Max Scherzer. The pitching matchup, plus the workload Toronto’s bullpen absorbed in Monday’s 4-3 loss, drives our best bet. A second angle targets the total.
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| When | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 – 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, MASN |
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Scherzer carries a 3-8 record and a 6.07 ERA into this start. He has allowed 1.73 home runs per nine innings and walked 31 batters in 72 2/3 innings, with a 1.36 WHIP. He held Detroit to one run over five innings last time out. However, his previous start came against this same Baltimore lineup on Sept. 11, when he gave up six runs on seven hits in five innings.
Bassitt is 8-5 with a 4.64 ERA. He has won four of his last five starts, including 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Mets last week. He also beat Toronto on Sept. 11, allowing two earned runs over five innings. Still, his 1.55 WHIP means runners are usually on base against him. In contrast, his home run rate (0.93 per nine) is far lower than Scherzer’s.
Toronto enters 77-80, 3.5 games out of the final wild-card spot, and has dropped five of its last seven. Baltimore is 76-81 and 4.5 games back. The Orioles snapped a three-game skid Monday behind two homers from Pete Alonso, who reached 40 on the season. Meanwhile, Toronto’s biggest lineup question is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He left Sunday’s game in Texas with lower back tightness and was not in Monday’s lineup.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | +1.5 (-210) | +101 | U 7.5 (+100) |
| Orioles | -1.5 (+175) | -121 | O 7.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of September 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Blue Jays | 68% | 32% | Orioles |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction — Can Scherzer Flip the Script in Baltimore?
The starting pitching gap is the foundation here. Scherzer’s season-long numbers point to a pitcher who gives up hard contact and free passes. That combination is dangerous against a Baltimore lineup that hit him hard 11 days ago. Bassitt is not overpowering, but he has worked into the sixth or seventh inning in four of his last five starts. That keeps Baltimore’s bullpen fresh for the late innings.
Toronto’s bullpen is the second factor. Trey Yesavage lasted only two innings Monday in a planned short outing as he returned from a knee injury. As a result, Toronto’s relievers had to cover the final six innings. Baltimore, meanwhile, got 6 2/3 innings from Shane Baz, and Rico Garcia closed it out with a perfect ninth. That workload gap from Monday carries into Tuesday. With Guerrero uncertain, Toronto’s path to winning looks narrower than the price suggests.
The market offers mild support. About 68% of run-line tickets are on Toronto, yet the moneyline has not moved off its opening number. That kind of freeze can signal quieter money on the other side. At -121, the break-even rate is roughly 54.8%. The case against is real, though. Scherzer owns a 3.85 ERA in 19 career starts against Baltimore, and Bassitt’s WHIP invites traffic. Also, Toronto won the last two games of the Sept. 11-13 series in Toronto. We prefer the moneyline over the -1.5 run line because home favorites often win by one run in walk-off spots, and Monday’s game was decided by a single run.
The Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-121)
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction — Is 7.5 Too Low for These Starters?
This angle rests on the same pitching read, so it is not fully independent from the first play. Scherzer’s home run rate is a problem against a lineup built around Alonso’s power. Bassitt, on the other hand, allows plenty of base runners even when he limits damage. Toronto’s stretched bullpen raises late-inning run expectancy too. The market leans the same way. The over opened at -115 and has moved to -120, while the under drifted from -105 to even money.
Still, there’s a clear case for the under. Toronto has dropped five of seven, and Guerrero’s absence would remove its most dangerous bat. Bassitt has also kept the ball in the park far better than Scherzer this year. That makes this a lean rather than a strong play.
The Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
We don’t have a third angle that stands on its own, so there is no bonus pick tonight. Instead, watch two things. First, Guerrero is back in the Toronto lineup. His return would strengthen the Blue Jays’ side and the over. Second, track how deep Bassitt goes. If he reaches the seventh again, Baltimore’s rested relievers get a short, manageable finish.
For more context on Monday’s opener, see our our Monday preview of the series opener. You can also follow official lineups and probable pitchers on MLB Gameday before first pitch.
Our picks for this game:
- Orioles Moneyline (-121)
- Over 7.5 (-120)
MLB Blue Jays vs. Orioles FAQ: Tuesday September 22, 2026
What time does the Blue Jays vs. Orioles game start?
The Blue Jays vs. Orioles game starts at 6:35 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. The venue is Camden Yards in Baltimore. It follows the Orioles’ 4-3 win on Monday.
What channel is the Blue Jays vs. Orioles game on?
The Blue Jays vs. Orioles game airs on Sportsnet for Toronto viewers and on MASN for Orioles fans in the Baltimore market. Coverage begins around the 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch at Camden Yards on Tuesday, September 22.
Who is pitching for the Blue Jays tonight?
Max Scherzer is the probable starter for the Blue Jays tonight. The right-hander is 3-8 with a 6.07 ERA this season. He will face Orioles right-hander Chris Bassitt, who is 8-5 with a 4.64 ERA and has won four of his last five starts.
Who won the last meeting between the Blue Jays and Orioles?
The Orioles won the last meeting, beating the Blue Jays 4-3 on Monday, September 21, at Camden Yards. Pete Alonso homered twice, including a go-ahead two-run shot in the eighth inning, to reach 40 home runs this season. Rico Garcia pitched a perfect ninth for the save.
Where do the Blue Jays and Orioles stand in their divisions?
The Blue Jays are fourth in the AL East at 77-80, and the Orioles are fifth at 76-81. Toronto sits 3.5 games behind the final American League wild-card spot. Baltimore is 4.5 games back with five games left to play.