The Phoenix Mercury visit the Portland Fire on Thursday night at Moda Center, and the market has spent two weeks rewriting this game. Phoenix opened at -1.5 and now lays 3 after Portland’s injury report grew to five names. The total has fallen four and a half points. Both teams are eliminated, yet the road team has won each of the first two meetings this season. That detail shapes both plays below.
Last Updated: Thursday, September 17, 2026
Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Moda Center, Portland OR |
| When | Thursday, September 17 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX12+ |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire Betting Preview
Portland enters at 16-24 and Phoenix at 14-26. Neither is playing for seeding. Both were eliminated before the league’s World Cup pause, and each has four games left.
Recent form favors neither side. The Fire have dropped four of their last five. Phoenix was worse, losing seven of its last nine. The Mercury did close that stretch with a win over Toronto, the only momentum either roster carries in.
Availability is what moved this line. Portland is without Carla Leite, who is resting the front end of a back-to-back after FIBA World Cup duty with France. Leite averages 15.9 points and 6.3 assists as the team’s primary creator. Bridget Carleton is out with a left ankle injury and Megan DiLeo with a dislocated right finger. Sania Feagin and Teja Oblak are also out. That is five rotation pieces gone in a league where rosters run 12 deep.
Phoenix is not at full strength either. Kelsey Plum is out for the season with a lower left leg injury. Kahleah Copper, the team’s leading scorer, is listed as questionable with a right groin strain after returning from the World Cup. Alyssa Thomas is healthy and enters tied for the league lead in assists at 8.4 per game.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | -3 (-110) | -150 | U 172 (-110) |
| Fire | +3 (-110) | +130 | O 172 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, September 17, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mercury | 72% | 28% | Fire |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mercury vs. Fire Prediction — Is Phoenix Worth Laying the Points?
Start with what the market has done. Phoenix opened at -1.5 and now lays 3. The moneyline moved from -120 to -150 in the same window. That adjustment traces to Portland’s injury news, and 72 percent of spread tickets sit on the Mercury. When a number moves a point and a half and the public piles onto the same side, the leftover value usually sits with the team nobody wants.
The season series supports that read. Phoenix took the June 5 meeting 78-72 in Portland. The Fire returned the favor on August 16 with an 88-85 win in Phoenix. The road team won both times, and the two games were decided by a combined nine points. Neither roster has separated itself in head-to-head play.
The case against Portland is serious. Removing Leite, Carleton and DiLeo strips three scoring options at once. Depth that thin can produce the second-half collapse that turns a three-point line into a 15-point final. Phoenix also has the best player likely on the floor in Thomas, and a healthy Copper would widen that gap.
Still, Phoenix is a 14-26 team that lost seven of nine, and it may play without its leading scorer. Laying three on the road with that profile asks a lot. Portland only needs to keep this within a possession.
The Pick: Portland Fire +3 (-110)
Mercury vs. Fire Prediction — Can a Depleted Rotation Keep Up the Scoring?
The total opened at 176.5 and now sits at 172. That four-and-a-half-point drop is the market’s estimate of what Portland’s absences cost. It may not be enough. The Fire average 86.6 points per game, ninth in the league, and Leite, Carleton and DiLeo were all double-figure scorers within that number. Replacement lineups generally take longer to generate clean looks, and Portland now has to manufacture offense without its primary ball handler.
The counterargument is real. Games between eliminated teams often get loose, and Portland has played on the high side of totals for much of the season. Thomas at 8.4 assists per game can push pace in transition, and Phoenix showed in its last outing before the break that this roster still has a high-scoring night in it. If Portland’s replacements shoot well from distance early, 172 goes quickly.
The Pick: Under 172 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
A moneyline angle is worth noting for smaller stakes. Portland at +130 implies roughly a 43 percent chance of winning outright. With Phoenix possibly without Copper and both sides running short rotations, that price looks generous for a home team. It carries more variance than the spread, so size it accordingly.
Portland’s schedule adds one more wrinkle. The Fire play at Golden State on Friday, which is why Leite is resting. A coach managing a back-to-back with seven players out may lean on his available starters heavily rather than rotate, and that usually tightens games rather than blowing them open.
For full game details and the official box score, the league’s game page carries live updates. For more on how the market handled Portland shorthanded earlier this season, see our August 30 look at a shorthanded Portland roster, and for a recent read on pricing the Mercury, see our August 29 WNBA picks coverage.
All picks: Portland Fire +3 (-110); Under 172 (-110); bonus angle Portland Fire moneyline +130.
WNBA Mercury vs. Fire FAQ: Thursday September 17, 2026
What time does the Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire game start?
Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2026, at Moda Center in Portland. That is 7:00 PM local time in Oregon. It is one of the late-window games on the WNBA schedule that night.
What channel is the Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire game on?
The game airs on FOX12+, the Fire’s local broadcast partner in the Portland market. Viewers in Arizona can find the Mercury feed on AZFamily. There is no national network window for this matchup, so coverage is regional on both ends.
Where are the Phoenix Mercury and Portland Fire playing today?
The two teams play at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon, which is the Fire’s home arena. Phoenix is the road team. The Mercury already visited Moda Center once this season, taking a 78-72 decision there on June 5.
Who won the last meeting between the Phoenix Mercury and Portland Fire?
Portland won the most recent meeting 88-85 on August 16, 2026, in Phoenix. It was a three-point road win for the Fire and the second straight game in the series decided by a single possession.
What is the season series record between the Phoenix Mercury and Portland Fire?
The teams have split their two meetings at one win apiece. Phoenix won 78-72 in Portland on June 5, and Portland won 88-85 in Phoenix on August 16. The visiting team has won both games, and the combined margin across the pair is only nine points.