The Miami Dolphins open the 2026 season on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, September 13. Las Vegas is a 3-point home favorite after opening at -3.5, and the total has settled at a modest 40.5. Two first-year head coaches and two new starting quarterbacks make this a game where the price matters more than the storyline. Our headline play sides with the direction the market has already been drifting.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas NV |
| When | Sunday, September 13 – 4:25 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview
Both teams arrive at 0-0 with almost nothing carried over from last season. Las Vegas finished 3-14 in 2025 and now plays for first-year head coach Klint Kubiak. Miami went 7-10, fired Mike McDaniel and handed the program to Jeff Hafley, previously the defensive coordinator in Green Bay. Neither roster looks much like the version that closed last December.
The quarterback rooms tell the story. Kubiak named Kirk Cousins the starter over No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, betting on a 38-year-old veteran to stabilize the opener. Miami counters with Malik Willis, signed this offseason to run Hafley’s offense. Willis is the more mobile of the two by a wide margin, and Miami is expected to use designed quarterback runs that Cousins simply cannot replicate.
Health favors Miami. Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is ruled out with a knee injury after a procedure earlier in the week, removing the most reliable target Cousins has. Running back Ashton Jeanty practiced fully despite an ankle issue and is available. The Dolphins carry no injury designations at all into Sunday.
These are two different kinds of rebuild. Jeanty posted 975 rushing yards and 1,321 scrimmage yards as a rookie, a Raiders rookie franchise record. Miami went the other way, cutting Tyreek Hill and trading Jaylen Waddle, leaving De’Von Achane as the offense. Achane ran for 1,350 yards and eight touchdowns last season and should see an enormous share of the work.
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +3 (-105) | +145 | O 40.5 (+100) |
| Raiders | -3 (-115) | -170 | U 40.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, September 13, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Dolphins | 50% | 50% | Raiders |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction — Is This Short Home Number Worth Laying?
Start with the movement. This game opened with Las Vegas laying 3.5 and now sits at 3. That is a half-point of value handed back to the road team before kickoff. The moneyline told the same story, shortening from -185 to -170 on the Raiders. Meanwhile, spread tickets are split evenly at 50 percent per side, even though roughly 86 percent of moneyline tickets sit on Las Vegas. Casual money likes the home team outright. The spread has not followed it.
The Bowers absence matters more than a single missing starter usually would. Cousins is a rhythm passer who wins from the pocket, and his most dependable middle-of-the-field option is out. Behind an offensive line that struggled badly last season, that is a real problem. Miami’s defense under Hafley should be comfortable playing coverage and letting Las Vegas grind. Add a total of just 40.5 and three points becomes a large slice of the projected scoring.
The case against Miami is serious. This roster was stripped down, Willis has never carried a full season as a primary starter, and the Dolphins could field rookies at a third of their starting spots. Road openers are unkind to young teams. Still, a hook-free 3 with a cheap price on the dog is a number worth taking, and the market has been inching toward Miami all week.
The Pick: Dolphins +3 (-105)
Dolphins vs. Raiders Prediction — Can Two New Offenses Reach the Number?
Both offenses have every reason to lean on the ground. Hafley has been open about wanting Achane to carry a huge workload, and with Hill and Waddle gone, the passing game runs through rookies. Las Vegas has its own reason to stay on schedule, since Jeanty is the best player on the offense and Cousins is without Bowers. Two run-first scripts in Week 1, with new coordinators on both sides, point toward long drives and short scoreboards. There is more of the slate in our Packers vs. Vikings Week 1 breakdown.
The honest counterpoint is price. The total opened at 40.5 with even juice and the Under now costs -120, so the market has already paid for this read. There is also a version where Willis breaks contain twice, Jeanty rips a long one, and 41 points arrives in a hurry. Allegiant Stadium is indoors, so conditions are never a factor. The number is already low. Paying the tax is the cost of a correct opinion rather than a bargain.
The Pick: Under 40.5 (-120)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The bonus angle is an alternate price rather than a separate opinion. Miami at +145 is the same view as the spread play, taken at a longer number. A 3-point line implies a real chance the Dolphins win outright. Bettors who like the dog can choose between the safety of the three points and the payout of the outright ticket. These two positions rise and fall together, so treat them as one stake, not two.
Our Commanders vs. Eagles Week 1 preview covers the other late-window game on FOX.
All picks: Dolphins +3 (-105) · Under 40.5 (-120) · Bonus: Dolphins +145 moneyline
NFL Dolphins vs. Raiders FAQ: Sunday September 13, 2026
What time does the Dolphins vs. Raiders game start?
Kickoff is set for 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, 2026, which is 1:25 PM local time in Las Vegas. The game sits in the late Sunday afternoon window on the opening weekend of the NFL regular season, alongside three other games in the same slot.
What channel is the Dolphins vs. Raiders game on?
FOX carries the national broadcast of Dolphins vs. Raiders in the 4:25 PM ET window. Chris Myers handles play-by-play with Mark Schlereth on analysis. Coverage availability depends on your regional FOX affiliate map, since three other games share the same afternoon kickoff slot.
Where are the Dolphins and Raiders playing?
The game is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, the Raiders’ home venue since 2020. It is a fixed-roof indoor stadium, so conditions will not be a factor. This is the first time Las Vegas has hosted a Week 1 game since 2021.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Dolphins and Raiders?
Malik Willis starts for Miami and Kirk Cousins starts for Las Vegas. Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak named Cousins the Week 1 starter on September 2, keeping No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza in a backup role to begin his rookie season.
Who won the last meeting between the Dolphins and Raiders?
Miami won the most recent meeting 34-19 on November 17, 2024, at Hard Rock Stadium. That was the only time these teams met during the last two regular seasons, and almost none of the key personnel from that afternoon remains in the same role for either side.