The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres meet at Petco Park on Sunday to settle a series split straight down the middle. San Diego walked off a 10-inning opener on Friday. New York answered with a 5-1 win on Saturday. Now Gerrit Cole and Michael King take the ball in a rubber game priced close to a coin flip, with a total that has not budged since it opened. Our headline play leans on the two arms rather than the two sides.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Petco Park, San Diego, California |
| When | Sunday, September 6 – 4:10 PM ET |
| TV | YES Network / Padres.TV |
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The pitching matchup is the story, and both sides are sending out an arm in form. Cole carries a 3.29 ERA with 110 strikeouts and 22 walks across 104 innings. That command profile is the separator. Since August 1 he has made six starts with a 2.75 ERA, 37 strikeouts and eight walks. His last three outings produced one earned run against Baltimore, three against Houston and three at the Angels.
King has been every bit as sharp lately. He owns a 3.11 ERA with 141 strikeouts over 162 innings, and since August 1 he has posted a 2.21 ERA across six starts. However, the walks are the difference between the two profiles. King has issued 63 free passes this season, roughly 3.5 per nine innings, while Cole sits near 1.9. That gap matters against a patient lineup.
The standings tell two different stories. New York is 81-61, second in the AL East and holding the top American League wild card, with six wins in its last 10. San Diego is 74-68 and third in the NL West, clinging to the final National League wild card by half a game after a 3-7 stretch. The Yankees have outscored opponents by more than 100 runs with a 3.23 team ERA. The Padres sit in single digits with a 3.92 mark.
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -1.5 (+160) | -113 | U 7 (-110) |
| Padres | +1.5 (-185) | -107 | O 7 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of September 6, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Yankees vs. Padres Prediction — Do Two Arms in Form Keep the Board Quiet?
Start with the run environment, because it is doing more work here than either team name. Petco Park has graded slightly below league average for offense on a multi-year basis, with a 97 batting park factor and a 96 pitching mark. The marine air off the bay is a standing feature of the venue. Add two starters who have each carried sub-3.00 ERAs through five weeks, and run expectation compresses in a hurry.
The series itself has behaved accordingly. Friday’s 10-inning game produced five total runs. Saturday’s 5-1 result produced six. Both landed comfortably under this number even with an extra frame in the first one. Meanwhile the market has said almost nothing. The total opened at 7 with -110 juice on each side and sits in exactly the same place now. A number that refuses to drift, in a park that suppresses scoring, is one the book is comfortable with.
The case against is real, and it starts with the price of admission. Seven is already a low number, so no bargain is being handed out. King’s walk rate is the live threat. A patient New York lineup can push his pitch count and force an early exit, and the Yankees carry the better offense by a clear margin. One big inning changes this math quickly.
The Pick: Under 7 (-110)
Yankees vs. Padres Prediction — Is the Better Team Priced Like a Coin Flip?
Strip away the venue and this is a paper mismatch the market is not charging much for. New York holds a seven-game edge in the standings, a run differential more than 100 runs better and a team ERA nearly seven-tenths lower. San Diego arrives having lost seven of 10. Yet the price sits near even money, a break-even rate barely above a coin flip.
Still, there are honest reasons the number sits where it does. The line has drifted a touch toward San Diego since it opened, moving from -117 to -113 on the Yankees, so the money is not piling onto New York. King has been the better pitcher over the last five weeks, he is at home, and the Padres are playing with wild-card urgency. A low-scoring projection also compresses any edge, since asking this offense for a comfortable cushion is a different proposition than asking it to win. To be plain, this play and the one above rest on the same pitching read, so they move together rather than independently.
The Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-113)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing factor for both positions is King’s command. If he works ahead and keeps the bases clean, this game stays in the low single digits and New York has to scratch out a narrow win. If he walks three or four, the Yankees lineup will make him pay and the shape of the afternoon changes.
San Diego also leaned on Mason Miller for two innings in Friday’s opener, so the back of that bullpen is worth a look at first pitch. For more on how this series set up, see our Yankees vs. Padres prediction for September 5. Both plays are leans, and each has a live counter-case.
Picks recap: Under 7 (-110); Yankees Moneyline (-113).
MLB Yankees vs. Padres FAQ: Sunday September 6, 2026
What time does the Yankees vs. Padres game start?
First pitch is set for 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, September 6, 2026. That is 1:10 PM local time in San Diego, making this a day game and the finale of a three-game weekend series at Petco Park.
What channel is the Yankees vs. Padres game on?
The game airs on YES Network for Yankees viewers and on Padres.TV in the San Diego market. There is no national television window for this matchup, so coverage runs through the two clubs’ regional outlets.
Who is pitching for the Padres today?
Michael King starts for San Diego. The right-hander is 9-9 with a 3.11 ERA, a 1.167 WHIP and 141 strikeouts across 162 innings this season. He has been sharper still of late, carrying a 2.21 ERA over six starts since August 1. Gerrit Cole takes the ball for New York.
Who won the last meeting between the Yankees and Padres?
New York won the most recent meeting 5-1 on Saturday, September 5, behind a strong outing from Carlos Rodón, evening the series at a game apiece. San Diego took the opener 3-2 in 10 innings on a walk-off two-run homer from Luis Campusano.
Where are the Yankees and Padres playing today?
The teams are playing at Petco Park in San Diego, California, the Padres’ home ballpark. Sunday’s game closes an interleague series with New York as the visiting club. The venue grades slightly pitcher-friendly on a multi-year park factor basis.