The Chicago Cubs open a three-game set at Chase Field on Monday night, and the market has installed the visitors as modest road favorites at -136 on the moneyline. Both starters arrive with bloated ERAs, which is why the total sits at 9. Kevin Gausman brings swing-and-miss stuff for Chicago, while Merrill Kelly tries to steady a rough season for Arizona. The line has already nudged in a direction worth flagging, too. Below, we break down the pitching matchup, the public money, and the two plays we like best.
Last Updated: Monday, August 24, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona |
| When | Monday, August 24 — 9:40 PM ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network / Diamondbacks regional broadcast |
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
The pitching matchup leads this one, and it is a study in two struggling right-handers. Chicago sends Kevin Gausman, the trade-deadline pickup from Toronto, who carries a 4.58 ERA with 143 strikeouts in 143.1 innings. His 1.298 WHIP and roughly nine strikeouts per nine innings tell the real story. He still misses bats. However, his recent Cubs starts have been short. He worked 4.1 innings against the White Sox on August 18 and 4.2 innings against the Nationals on August 13, with a strong seven-inning, two-run outing against the Royals on August 7 mixed in.
Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, and his 2026 line is a concern. Kelly owns an 8-11 record with a 5.37 ERA and a bulky 1.519 WHIP over 129 innings. His strikeout rate has slipped to under six per nine. That combination points to traffic on the bases and long innings. In contrast, Gausman’s swing-and-miss profile gives Chicago the clearer edge on the mound, even if neither man has been sharp lately.
Both clubs enter cold. Each has gone 4-6 over its last 10 games. The Cubs sit second in the NL Central and remain in a National League wild-card position despite the recent slide, a stretch our recent Cubs breakdown covered. Arizona is 68-62, third in the NL West and chasing a wild card of its own, as our latest Diamondbacks preview laid out. Chase Field is a retractable-roof park that has played close to league average for scoring in recent seasons, so the venue neither pushes nor suppresses this total by much.
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -1.5 (+120) | -136 | U 9 (-105) |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 (-140) | +114 | O 9 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of August 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Cubs | 60% | 40% | Diamondbacks |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction — Do Two Shaky Arms Point Toward Runs?
Start with the run-prevention picture, because that is where this total is won or lost. Kelly’s 1.519 WHIP means baserunners in bunches, and baserunners drive up pitch counts and multi-run innings. Gausman misses bats, but his recent outings have been short, which pulls both bullpens into the middle innings sooner than a manager would like. Two starters with ERAs north of 4.50 and shaky command are a natural fit for a number in the run-scoring direction.
The market hints the same way. The over opened at -110 and has ticked to -115, a small sign that money leans toward runs rather than a quiet night. Still, the case against is real. Gausman’s strikeout stuff can carry a start when he is locating, and neither offense has been hot, with both clubs scuffling through 4-6 stretches. A crisp, well-pitched game gets this to eight and no further. The lean here is modest, not a hammer, and it rests on the run environment rather than either side winning.
The Pick: Over 9 (-115)
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction — Is the Home Dog the Value Side?
The most interesting market signal points at Arizona. Public tickets are piled on Chicago’s moneyline, roughly 81 percent, yet the Cubs’ price has shortened from an opening -142 to -136. When the crowd is heavy on one side and the number drifts the other way, it usually means the sharper money sits on the quieter side. That is the classic footprint of value on the home underdog. Gausman’s recent short outings also cap Chicago’s blowout upside, which makes the +1.5 cushion attractive.
The honest counter is that this contradicts the pitching read. Gausman is the better arm, and Kelly’s high WHIP can snowball into a three- or four-run Cubs win that clears the run line. Laying -140 on the dog asks Arizona to lose by no more than one or win outright. It is a lean built on the line move and the home-dog price, not a lock, and it can be wrong if Chicago’s bats finally wake up.
The Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
A few things will decide this one. Watch Kelly’s command in the first three innings, because his walks are what turn manageable frames into crooked numbers. Watch Gausman’s pitch count as well. If he is again out by the fifth, the bullpens take over early and the run total gets friendlier. Late-inning relief usage on both sides could swing the total and any live underdog value.
To recap the card: the strongest play is the Over 9 (-115), driven by two struggling starters in a neutral park. The second play is the Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140), a lean on the reverse line move toward the home dog. Both are honest reads with live counter-cases, so size them accordingly.
MLB Cubs vs. Diamondbacks FAQ: Monday August 24, 2026
What time does the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game start?
First pitch is set for 9:40 PM ET on Monday, August 24, 2026, which is 6:40 PM local time in Phoenix. The game is the opener of a three-game series at Chase Field between the Chicago Cubs and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
What channel is the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game on?
The game airs on Marquee Sports Network for Chicago Cubs viewers and on the Arizona Diamondbacks regional broadcast in the Phoenix market. Out-of-market fans can stream the contest through MLB.TV, subject to local blackout rules.
Who is pitching for the Cubs against the Diamondbacks?
Kevin Gausman is the Chicago Cubs’ probable starter. The right-hander, acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline, carries a 4.58 ERA and 143 strikeouts across 143.1 innings this season. Arizona counters with right-hander Merrill Kelly and his 5.37 ERA.
Where are the Cubs and Diamondbacks playing today?
The game is at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, the retractable-roof home of the Diamondbacks. Arizona hosts this three-game series, so the Cubs play as the road team throughout the set against the Diamondbacks.
Where do the Cubs and Diamondbacks stand in their divisions?
The Chicago Cubs sit second in the NL Central and hold a National League wild-card position entering the series. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 68-62 and third in the NL West, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers and chasing a wild-card berth of their own.