The Minnesota Twins visit the San Diego Padres on Saturday night at Petco Park, and the betting market is sending mixed messages. San Diego sits at -142 on the moneyline after taking Friday’s opener, yet the sharper money has quietly leaned the other way. Casey Mize and Dean Kremer bring very different résumés to the mound. Below we break down the run line, the total, and where the real value hides.
Last Updated: August 22, 2026
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| When | Saturday, August 22, 2026 – 8:40 PM ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, Twins.TV, MLB.TV |
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Pitching heads the card, and it favors the home team on paper. San Diego hands the ball to right-hander Casey Mize, who carries a 3.18 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Mize stumbled in his Padres debut, allowing eight earned runs in 3.1 innings against Arizona. Since then he has settled in, giving up just two earned runs on eight hits across his last 12 innings. Minnesota counters with righty Dean Kremer, whose 5.40 ERA tells much of the story. Kremer still misses bats at 8.9 strikeouts per nine. However, he has posted a 6.59 ERA over his last five starts and surrendered four earned runs in 5.1 innings against Philadelphia his last time out.
Both clubs arrive with something to play for. The Padres entered the weekend at 69-60 and squarely in the National League wild-card race. The Twins sit at 63-66, chasing the final wild-card berth in a soft American League field. San Diego has been the hotter team, and it backed that up Friday by taking the series opener 6-2. Minnesota, meanwhile, has struggled to string together offense on this road trip.
Rotation health colors both sides. San Diego is without Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta, both on the 60-day injured list with elbow issues. Minnesota is missing Pablo Lopez and David Festa for the long haul. Neither absence changes tonight’s matchup directly, but both explain why each team leans heavily on arms like Mize and Kremer down the stretch.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | +1.5 (-170) | +119 | U 8.5 (-115) |
| Padres | -1.5 (+145) | -142 | O 8.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of August 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Twins | 17% | 83% | Padres |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Twins vs. Padres Prediction — Does the Road Dog Have a Path?
Start with the market, because it is talking. The public is piled onto San Diego, with 83% of run-line bets and 86% of moneyline bets landing on the Padres. Normally that kind of lopsided support drags a favorite’s price up. Instead, San Diego’s moneyline has drifted from -155 at the open down to -142. When the number moves against the crowd like that, it is the footprint of sharper money on the other side. Here, that money is on Minnesota.
The run line adds another wrinkle. San Diego is the home favorite, which is the weakest spot to lay -1.5. When the home team leads after the ninth, the game simply ends, so the Padres lose chances to pad a lead. Roughly 28% of MLB games are decided by a single run, and that is exactly the cushion the +1.5 provides. Backing Minnesota with the extra run and a half keeps the ticket alive even in a one-run loss.
The case against is real. Mize is clearly the better starter, and if he carries his recent form deep into the game, San Diego can win comfortably by two or more. The Padres did exactly that on Friday. The price is steep, too. At -170, the cushion is not cheap, and a lopsided San Diego win erases the edge. Still, the combination of reverse line movement, a contrarian spot and a shaky home-favorite run line all point the same direction.
The Pick: Minnesota Twins Run Line +1.5 (-170)
Twins vs. Padres Prediction — How Many Runs Live in This One?
The total is the other place value hides, and it starts with the venue. Petco Park is one of the most durable pitcher-friendly environments in baseball, consistently suppressing run scoring year after year. Mize fits that backdrop perfectly right now, having allowed just two earned runs over his last 12 innings with a 1.07 WHIP. Even Kremer, for all his ERA trouble, misses bats at a healthy clip. Two strikeout arms in a park that eats runs is a recipe for a quieter night. It reads much like our look at the Rays vs. Orioles under on the same slate.
There is a counter, and it deserves respect. The total climbed from 8.0 at the open up to 8.5, which tells you money has come in on the over. Kremer’s 5.40 ERA also leaves the door open to a crooked inning, and San Diego already hung six runs on Minnesota on Friday. If Kremer unravels early, the under is in trouble. On balance, though, the park and Mize’s form tilt the projection toward fewer runs rather than more.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
This is a game with a clear favorite on the mound and a clear disagreement between the public and the sharper money. Watch two things once first pitch arrives. First, whether Mize keeps rolling or the Twins’ lineup makes him work early. Second, how quickly each manager leans on the bullpen, since late innings at Petco often decide close, low-scoring games. For more of our slate-wide analysis, see our latest MLB best bets.
Here is the recap. Our best bet is Minnesota on the run line at +1.5, supported by reverse line movement and a weak home-favorite spot. Our second play is the under 8.5, anchored by Petco’s run-suppressing environment and Mize’s sharp recent form. Both picks lean toward a tight, lower-scoring game rather than a San Diego runaway.
MLB Twins vs. Padres FAQ: Saturday August 22, 2026
What time does the Twins vs. Padres game start?
First pitch is set for 8:40 PM ET (5:40 PM PT) on Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Petco Park in San Diego. It is the second game of the weekend series between Minnesota and San Diego, following Friday’s opener.
What channel is the Twins vs. Padres game on?
The game airs on the teams’ local broadcasts, Padres.TV and Twins.TV, and streams on MLB.TV. Coverage begins in the two clubs’ home markets, with out-of-market viewers able to stream the contest through MLB’s package subject to regional blackout rules.
Who is pitching for the Padres and Twins on August 22?
San Diego starts right-hander Casey Mize (5-7, 3.18 ERA), while Minnesota counters with right-hander Dean Kremer (2-4, 5.40 ERA). Mize brings the far stronger season numbers, though both pitchers rank among their teams’ more frequently used starters down the stretch.
Who won the previous meeting between the Twins and Padres?
San Diego won the series opener 6-2 over Minnesota on Friday, August 21, 2026, at Petco Park. The Padres set the tone early and never trailed, handing the Twins another setback on a road trip where the offense has gone quiet.
What are the Twins’ and Padres’ records this season?
San Diego entered Saturday at 69-60, in the thick of the National League wild-card chase. Minnesota stood at 63-66, still within range of the final American League wild-card spot in a weak field. Friday’s result widened the gap between the two clubs.