The Denver Broncos open their preseason on the road Friday night, visiting the Atlanta Falcons inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Denver sits as a modest 4-point favorite, but the spread tells only part of the story in an exhibition opener. Both coaching staffs have already tipped their hands on playing time, and that matters far more than talent on paper here. Atlanta plans to hand its starters a full series or more, while Denver rests its franchise quarterback and gives other first-teamers only a short look. Our headline lean accounts for the situation, and we break down the number, the total, and the value below.
Last Updated: Friday, August 14, 2026
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA |
| When | Friday, August 14 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX 5 (Atlanta) / 9NEWS (Denver); NFL+ & ESPN Unlimited App out of market |
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
Preseason openers hinge on who plays, not on last season’s results. That makes the quarterback plans the first read for this matchup. Atlanta will start Tua Tagovailoa, and the staff intends to give the first-team offense at least one series, and possibly more. That is a shift toward meaningful early reps rather than a token cameo. Michael Penix Jr. remains sidelined and has not been cleared for contact, so Tagovailoa leads the offense with veteran Cooper Rush behind him.
Denver takes the opposite approach at the game’s most important position. Broncos starting QB Bo Nix will not play, with head coach Sean Payton holding his starter out and pointing to next week for his debut. Denver still plans to run its other starters out for roughly 10 to 15 snaps before turning the game over to its backups. Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger, both competing for the No. 2 job, are set to each play a half.
The upshot is straightforward. Atlanta’s first-team offense, led by a healthy veteran passer, should see the field a touch longer than Denver’s, and the Broncos’ most dynamic player will be in street clothes. That does not decide the game. Backups play the majority of snaps, and depth, conditioning, and coaching scripts can swing exhibition results as much as anything. Still, the opening script leans slightly toward the home side.
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -4.0 (-115) | -210 | U 40.0 (-105) |
| Falcons | +4.0 (-105) | +175 | O 40.0 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of August 14, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Broncos | 51% | 49% | Falcons |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Broncos vs. Falcons Prediction — Can the Home Dog Cover a Short Number?
Denver opened as high as a 4.5-point favorite before the number ticked down to 4, with Atlanta’s side drawing enough support to shave the half-point. Public spread tickets are essentially even at 51 percent on Denver and 49 percent on Atlanta, a normal look for a preseason game with no strong lean either way. That split matches the muted crowd action we have seen across our recent NFL preseason predictions. The read here comes from the situation rather than the ticket count.
The case for the home side starts with the quarterback contrast. Atlanta’s veteran starter takes the field while Denver’s does not, and the plan to extend the Falcons’ first-teamers could produce a cleaner opening drive or two. A home dog getting more than a field goal in August, with the better early-quarterback situation, is a potential value spot. Field position, one short scoring drive, or a single special-teams play can cover four points in a game where neither side is chasing a result.
The counterargument shouldn’t be immediately dismissed. Denver’s roster is deeper on paper, Payton’s teams tend to be well-drilled in the exhibition slate, and Stidham is a capable veteran who has started NFL games. If Denver’s backups outclass Atlanta’s second and third units over three-plus quarters, the four points evaporate quickly. This is a lean, not a conviction play, which is the right posture for any preseason side.
The Pick: Falcons +4.0 (-105)
Broncos vs. Falcons Prediction — Will the Backups Push the Total?
The total opened at 37.5 and has climbed to 40, a notable move that reflects an expectation of a bit more scoring than a typical opener. Both teams intend to play starters early, which front-loads the game’s most efficient snaps before the reserves take over. That is the engine behind the number’s rise.
The argument for the over is the early starter usage and the two-plus points of steam already on the number. The argument for the under is more familiar. Once the backups take the field, preseason football tends to bog down. Vanilla play-calling, sloppy execution, and a running clock in the second half all suppress scoring. With the number now at 40, the cushion favors a patient stance if you expect the game to slow after the first quarter.
The Pick: Under 40 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Denver’s talent edge is legit, but the two staffs’ playing-time plans tilt the early script toward Atlanta. A healthy veteran starting quarterback for the home team, paired with a rested one for the road favorite, is the throughline for every angle here. It is the same tight-exhibition dynamic we flagged in our Titans vs. 49ers preseason prediction.
For a bonus swing, the Falcons’ moneyline is worth a look. Preseason games become near coin flips once the backups take over, and a home underdog with the steadier early quarterback situation carries outright appeal at plus money. It is a small-stake play given the variance, not a core position.
Here is the full card for Broncos at Falcons: Falcons +4.0 (-105), Under 40 (-105), and the Falcons moneyline (+175) as a bonus swing. Each leans on the same read, a home team getting points with the better early quarterback picture in a low-leverage exhibition. Treat the sides as modest positions and the moneyline as a dart, and keep stakes appropriate for preseason football.
NFL Broncos vs. Falcons FAQ: Friday August 14, 2026
What time does the Broncos vs. Falcons game start?
The Broncos and Falcons kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday, August 14, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. It is Denver’s preseason opener and Atlanta’s first exhibition of the year, with both teams planning to play their starters briefly (minus Denver QB Bo Nix) before turning the game over to backups.
What channel is the Broncos vs. Falcons game on?
The game airs on local and regional television, including FOX 5 in Atlanta and 9NEWS in Denver, rather than a single national network. Out-of-market viewers can stream it on NFL+ and the ESPN Unlimited App. Coverage varies by affiliate across each team’s region, so check local listings before kickoff.
Where are the Broncos and Falcons playing?
The Broncos and Falcons meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, the Falcons’ home venue. Atlanta hosts this exhibition opener, so Denver travels for its first preseason action of the year. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday, August 14, 2026.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Broncos and Falcons?
Atlanta starts Tua Tagovailoa, with the Falcons planning at least one series for their first-team offense. Denver holds out Bo Nix and splits quarterback duties between Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger, who each take a half. Michael Penix Jr. remains sidelined and unavailable for Atlanta. Veteran backup QB Cooper Rush will likely take the field for Atlanta after Tua Tagovailoa’s night is through.