The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet again at Citi Field on Saturday afternoon, and the home team is a short favorite despite sitting nine games worse in the standings. Miami evened this weekend set with a 5-2 win on Friday. The Marlins now hand the ball to swingman Tyler Phillips, while the Mets counter with rookie left-hander Zac Thornton. That matchup built this price, and it is also where our lead play comes from.
Last Updated: Saturday, August 1, 2026
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citi Field, Flushing, New York |
| When | Saturday, August 1, 2026 – 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet New York |
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Betting Preview
Start with the arms. Thornton is a 24-year-old left-hander with five big league starts and 29.2 innings on his ledger. He is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA, though the supporting numbers are solid rather than spectacular. FanGraphs credits Thornton with a 3.21 FIP, 6.67 strikeouts per nine and 2.12 walks per nine. He does not miss many bats. He does throw strikes, and he has worked deep for a rookie.
Phillips is the opposite profile. He has been a swingman all year, appearing 27 times with only 11 starts. MLB.com lists Phillips at 2-5 with a 3.52 ERA over 84.1 innings, with 63 strikeouts against 38 walks and a 1.36 WHIP. The ERA looks respectable. The walk rate does not. He last took the ball on July 27 against Philadelphia.
The standings tell a different story than the moneyline. Miami is 56-55 and third in the National League East, 9.5 games behind Atlanta, per the official NL East standings. New York is 47-64 and fifth, 18.5 back. Recent form is closer, with the Marlins 4-6 in their last 10 and the Mets 5-5. Miami’s bullpen is also in decent shape after Friday, when Pete Fairbanks needed seven pitches for his 16th save.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | +1.5 (-185) | +110 | U 9 (-110) |
| Mets | -1.5 (+160) | -132 | O 9 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, August 1, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Marlins | 41% | 59% | Mets |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Marlins vs. Mets Best Bet — Is the Market Overrating Five Starts?
Thornton’s 2.43 ERA is doing a lot of work in this price, and five starts is a thin sample. His FIP sits nearly a full run above that ERA, which usually points toward regression rather than a step forward. A pitcher who strikes out fewer than seven per nine leans on contact management and defense. That can hold up. It can also unravel in a single inning.
The market read is the second signal. The Mets opened at -135 and now sit at -132, while Miami has moved from +113 to +110. That is a small drift, but it runs toward the road team even though most moneyline tickets are on New York. When a number will not move toward the popular side, the money and the tickets are usually split. We treat that as confirmation, not as the reason.
Here is the honest counter. Phillips walks too many hitters, he has been a swingman rather than a rotation fixture, and Thornton has handled real lineups already. If he gives the Mets six clean innings, this read looks thin in a hurry. The case rests on price more than certainty. Plus money on the team with nine more wins, in a game the market has nudged our way, is the value we want.
The Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+110)
Marlins vs. Mets Prediction — Can Either Lineup Push This Number?
Citi Field has long trimmed run scoring rather than inflating it, so a nine here is not the nine you would see in a bandbox. Thornton’s 2.12 walks per nine is the kind of number that keeps innings short. The Mets have also been the weaker offense in this set. They managed two runs on Friday and sit 17 games under .500 for a reason.
The counter overlaps with our first play, and we will say so plainly. Phillips has walked 38 hitters in 84.1 innings, and base traffic is how a nine gets cleared. Miami’s bats have been the livelier group here. Pairing an under with a road side is also a narrow lane, because it needs the Marlins to win a low-scoring game. We think that is the likeliest shape, but it is still a lane.
The Pick: Under 9 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing moment arrives when the first starter leaves. Phillips has not been stretched deep as a swingman, so Miami’s middle relief could be in play by the fifth or sixth. Fairbanks threw seven pitches on Friday, so the back of the Marlins bullpen should be available. If the Mets are chasing in the seventh, that matters.
The first two innings will tell you plenty about the total. If Phillips falls behind in counts early, the under is under pressure right away. For more, see our Friday breakdown of this series, and our latest coverage of the division includes a look at the Nationals and Braves.
To recap: Marlins Moneyline (+110) and Under 9 (-110). Both are leans built on price and profile, not on a settled outcome.
MLB Marlins vs. Mets FAQ: Saturday August 1, 2026
What time does the Marlins vs. Mets game start?
First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 1, 2026, at Citi Field in Flushing, New York. It is an afternoon start rather than an evening one, and it follows Friday’s meeting between the same two clubs at the same ballpark.
What channel is the Marlins vs. Mets game on?
SportsNet New York carries Saturday’s broadcast from Citi Field. SNY is the Mets’ regional rights holder, so coverage follows the club’s local television footprint. Viewers outside that market will need to check their own regional listings for how the game is being distributed where they are.
Who is pitching for the Marlins today?
Right-hander Tyler Phillips starts for Miami. He is 2-5 with a 3.52 ERA across 84.1 innings this season, with 63 strikeouts, 38 walks and a 1.36 WHIP in 27 appearances and 11 starts. He last took the mound on July 27 against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Who won the last meeting between the Marlins and Mets?
Miami won 5-2 at Citi Field on Friday, July 31. Jakob Marsee and Kyle Stowers led the offense, Janson Junk allowed only an unearned run over five innings, and Pete Fairbanks needed just seven pitches to finish a perfect ninth for his 16th save of the season.
Where do the Marlins and Mets stand in their division?
Miami is third in the National League East at 56-55, 9.5 games behind Atlanta. New York is fifth at 47-64, 18.5 games back. Over their last 10 games the Marlins are 4-6 and the Mets are 5-5, so recent form is closer than the standings suggest.