Troy Melton has quietly turned into one of the American League’s most efficient starters, and the Detroit right-hander headlines a getaway-day Thursday that leans almost entirely on the mound. First pitches are bunched between the lunch hour and dinnertime rather than under the lights, which rewards bettors who read the pitching matchups closely.
The top of the AL East is represented too, as the runaway Rays try to finish a road sweep. Today’s plays span three windows and three bet types: an early moneyline lean on a home underdog at a fair price, a mid-afternoon total the market keeps shaving lower, and a run-line angle in the nightcap where the arms are badly mismatched. Scroll down for all three.
Last Updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026
Early Game — Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Rogers Centre, Toronto ON |
| When | Thursday, July 23 – 3:07 PM ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
The Rays arrive at 58-42 and sitting on top of the AL East, and they have already taken the first two games of this series, including a 12-2 rout on July 21. Toronto has fallen to 46-55, dropped three straight, and now occupies the division basement. On paper this looks like a spot for Tampa Bay to complete a tidy sweep before heading home.
The pitching, however, is closer than the standings suggest. Toronto hands the ball to Shane Bieber, who returned from a right elbow injury in late June and carries a 1-1 record with a 5.70 ERA across five starts. He is rusty, but the front-line pedigree is real. Tampa Bay counters with Ian Seymour, a swing arm who has made just seven starts among 34 appearances and owns a 4.79 ERA. That is a starter being stretched, not a rotation anchor.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | -1.5 (+150) | -114 | U 8.5 (-110) |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 (-175) | -106 | O 8.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, July 23, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Rays | 75% | 25% | Blue Jays |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-106)
Roughly three-quarters of the run-line tickets sit on Tampa Bay, yet the Rays’ moneyline barely moved off its open and Toronto is available at a near even-money price at home. When the public leans this hard and the number refuses to follow, it often points to sharper money holding the home team. Bieber gives Toronto a real chance to reset the series, and the value here is the price, not a bold call that the Blue Jays are the better club. The case against is straightforward: Toronto has lost three in a row for a reason, Bieber’s 5.70 ERA is a live concern, and the Rays are the stronger team top to bottom. This is a value lean on a fair number, not a statement on the standings. For more, see our full Rays-Blue Jays breakdown.
Mid-Day Game — Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Busch Stadium, St. Louis MO |
| When | Thursday, July 23 – 5:15 PM ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV / MLB.TV |
These two just finished a series in Arizona, and they meet again with the arrows pointing in opposite directions. The Diamondbacks (53-49) are red-hot, winners of four of their last five and scoring in bunches. The Cardinals (52-49) have gone cold, dropping four in a row and getting outscored along the way. Two clubs separated by a game in the standings look nothing alike right now.
The mound matchup is quietly strong. St. Louis sends Michael McGreevy, whose 4-7 record badly undersells a 2.92 ERA. Arizona answers with Brandon Pfaadt, 4-1 with a 4.58 ERA and coming off a solid outing against this same St. Louis lineup last week. Neither starter is a pushover, and both offenses will have to work for runs against arms that limit hard contact.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 (-200) | +102 | U 7.5 (-120) |
| Cardinals | -1.5 (+170) | -122 | O 7.5 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, July 23, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Diamondbacks | 41% | 59% | Cardinals |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-120)
This total opened at 8.5 and has been bet down a full run to 7.5, with the under now priced at -120. That is a clear, one-directional move, and it lines up with the matchup. McGreevy’s ERA sits under 3.00, Pfaadt has been steady, and Busch Stadium plays fair for pitchers in the summer. When the market shaves a number this aggressively behind two capable starters, following it is the disciplined play. The counterargument has teeth, though. Arizona’s bats are scorching, the D-backs have piled up runs over their last week, and a rematch means hitters have seen these arms recently. Paying -120 for a shortened number also trims the margin, so there is no free lunch here. Still, the combination of two solid starters and heavy under money makes the low side the stronger position.
Late Game — Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Comerica Park, Detroit MI |
| When | Thursday, July 23 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
The nightcap features the day’s most lopsided pitching edge. Detroit (48-54) starts Troy Melton, who has been superb: 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and 50 strikeouts over 55 innings. He leads the Tigers’ staff in ERA and misses bats at a high rate. That is a difficult profile for a struggling lineup to solve.
Kansas City (43-60) counters with Randy Dobnak, a swing man who has made just one start and thrown 14 innings this season. His 1.93 ERA comes in a tiny sample, and his presence points toward a bullpen-heavy night for the Royals. Kansas City has also been dreadful away from home, sitting at 17-33 on the road. Detroit is a heavy favorite for good reason.
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | +1.5 (-115) | +185 | U 8.0 (+100) |
| Tigers | -1.5 (-105) | -225 | O 8.0 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, July 23, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Royals | 26% | 74% | Tigers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Detroit Tigers Run Line -1.5 (-105)
Detroit is a -225 moneyline favorite, and the run line at -105 buys nearly the same side at a far better price. The logic is the pitching gap. Melton has an ERA of 1.80 over 55 innings, while Kansas City appears set for a bullpen game behind Dobnak. Add in the Royals’ 17-33 road record, and a multi-run Detroit win is a reasonable expectation. The market agrees, having moved the Tigers’ run line from +125 up to -105. The other side matters, though. Laying -1.5 means Detroit must win by two or more, and baseball’s one-run variance is stubborn. A fresh Royals bullpen could keep it tight, and Melton’s light workload leaves room for regression. At 48-54, Detroit is no juggernaut. The edge is the mismatch on the mound, and the run line is the efficient way to back it. Our Royals-Tigers preview digs into the total angle as well.
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
Three windows, three bet types. In the early game, back the Blue Jays on the moneyline at a near even-money home price. In the mid-day game, follow the sharp move to the under 7.5 runs between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals. In the nightcap, take the Tigers on the run line against a Royals staff working without a true starter. One side, one total, one run line.